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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Nowt to get too excited about; but, at the same time, it's impossible to know where the PV will end up, at this range...

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
3 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

You have perfectly stated the importance of the displacement placement. 

Displacement placement? 

ECM starting to show some promise at T168:

image.thumb.jpg.46d78d41d96bc53c1de3cceb0f81d323.jpg

 

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

The cold clusterings have dropped down below the mean on the 12z suite a marked shift from the 06z which in turn, was an improvement on the 00z.

image.thumb.png.591117b09677df8849c256601d9e7e2f.png

image.thumb.png.a0708467cceb64ea2e77a2aedbfe4482.png

image.thumb.png.5f02b59d4adf7210b22a64d8cf7dffe6.png

The trend is good.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

ECM not too bad, a ridge about to be thrown North and a cold plunge likely, probably to the East of us though.

ECH1-168_sau7.GIF

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

This HP is being a bit of a thorn in the side, need this to suppress somewhat.

 

ECH1-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Scrap that  -  its going to turn out crap again.

Its beginning to feel like pulling teeth getting rid of these low heights to the north/north west..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its beginning to feel like pulling teeth getting rid of these low heights to the north/north west..

Its been the story of the last 7 years.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

know one thing, could be very foggy end to 2018?, can't remember last time there was UK wide constant fog

ECM1-192.GIF?22-0ECM1-216.GIF?22-0

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

This is better from the EC though, LP really digging South, HP starting to flex to our West/NW, 

ECH1-216.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

know one thing, could be very foggy end to 2018?, can't remember last time there was UK wide constant fog

ECM1-192.GIF?22-0ECM1-216.GIF?22-0

December 2006 ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, The Eagle said:

Looked like a chink of light @ 168 on the ECM.

Ends up just rinse and repeat.

I must admit i thought the same at 168-

As i posted above the energy in the northern arm just goes on and on,anyone got a spare nuke !!:ninja:

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its beginning to feel like pulling teeth getting rid of these low heights to the north/north west..

Nothing is going to happen before D10 according to the cross-model means.

it is around D12 that the GFS is showing some fluidity to the UK high.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, IDO said:

Nothing is going to happen before D10 according to the cross-model means.

it is around D12 that the GFS is showing some fluidity to the UK high.

TBH we have had that much rain round here i be glad of some dry days!

But i agree, insofar as any low uppers are concerned its looking nailed on that we will wait to January, as expected TBH.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

The EC basically sends the vortex back to a location I think i have seen before...

ECH0-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Will be interesting to see EC take on the strat - hopefully the split signal is maintained..

And with that its time for the boxing, got a good Oldham lad fighting tonight

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Will be interesting to see EC take on the strat - hopefully the split signal is maintained..

And with that its time for the boxing, got a good Oldham lad fighting tonight

One would say we are wasting our time looking at current output/FI but we cannot generate something that isn`t showing yet! 

Edit: ... I suppose there is the CFS...

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

One would say we are wasting our time looking at current output/FI but we cannot generate something that isn`t showing yet! 

ECH1-240.GIF?22-0

The only positive is the hints of pressure lowering over North Africa/southern Spain.. probably above my grade to make a call whether they will be a game changer..

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, knocker said:

Dangerous ground.....that comment is verging on apostasy

PMSL Knocker .. another post that made me spit my coffee out..

EC dry dry dry - for me that will do, for now.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

 According to the study beneath, a downwelling will take place if the AO is negative on the date of SSW. More details in the stratosphere topic.

Important is 100 hPa till 300 hPa! (first i was mistaken and thought it was at 1000 hPa, sorry folks  

Predictability of downward propagation of major sudden stratospheric warmings Alexey Yu. Karpechko,et al 

Edited by sebastiaan1973
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Dangerous ground.....that comment is verging on apostasy

Just had to Google that, Knocker..and yes quite.... 

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