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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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I can recall in the past that the models don’t latch onto the full effects of a stratospheric warming or slowdown / reversal of upper winds until it actually starts happening. I expect more dream fi Synoptics to start appearing in the next few days !

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Hmmm no mention of an Easterly longer term but still that cold signal remains which is what we coldies are clinging to..and looking at the latest models, we may not have to wait until mid Jan for something wintry!!!..some encouragement despite yet another green christmas!!!!:santa-emoji:

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Okay so finally the northern blocking signal is strong enough to take the ridge up into Greenland against the weak PV. Got a feeling we're going to be seeing a lot more of this now- either with a Greenland High+Euro/Scandi Trough or a Scandi High+UK/Iberian trough

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Hi people good afternoon all 😊

Hope everyone is well and we are in the final countdown to the big day. Well here in Walthamstow North East London it does not feel like a Decembers day nor like late March or Early April really springlike, where has winter gone?

As this will probably be my last post before Christmas I just like to firstly thank the forum management for their great efforts in keeping this site running, without this I would certainly be lost in weather prospects. Secondly a big thank you to all the wonderful posts that I have read throughout the year and the experts who have taken time to share their knowledge with the less knowledgable ones. Last but not least thank you to everyone who has been on this rollercoaster we have had our ups and downs together and it has been a great pleasure in seeing all the regulars in here.

So looks like we are in a high pressure situation in the coming days and it all depends where the high pressure is that will dictate our weather. It looks as though we may see some fog and frost and some murk and gloom as well. As I mentioned in my last post I don't think we will start seeing any candy charts untill closer to the new year or even after. A lot of people have said that all the signs look great as we head into January but the usual   Covets apply. I know our hearts are really dying for this freeze let's hope everything falls together for our island and we finally see our awaited winter wonderland . The Siberian Express will be running s new timetable that has its stop here.

finally hope you sweet people have a Lovely Christmas take time out to spend with loved ones. 

Stay Safe and keep heads up

our search for our winter wonderland continues

Merry Christmas 🎄 

kind reagards 😊😊😊😊

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3 hours ago, karyo said:

Unlike to see snow from this chart, at least not on low ground.

What in the charts indicates whether or not there will be precip/snow or any other weather type? As a newbie I get confused as to what causes differences of opinion on these type of charts, especially as I just see it as pressure/temp. (Sorry if I am asking a really dumb Q 😬).

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51 minutes ago, Purga said:

Yep, a nice shift in the ENS 06z compared to 00z

image.thumb.png.68c5ed7a02bab2fbc3f2b83425154dfb.png

image.thumb.png.e07776c42a478a2370efb7d503d3119c.png

Note that the control is heading down at the end as well.

image.thumb.png.824118713c8a1627b7219f874a9e0738.png

ECM beyond Day 10 with the dominant cluster (London) showing a clear trend away from mild for start of 2019.

It may amount to nothing but at least we have some eye candy appearing now.

😊

 

Thats an excellent EC ens set...

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5 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Look at that drop from the ECM ensembles as we head into January 🙂

Supported by the mean..

Any high pressure as long as it is not centred to our south/south west will bring cold weather at the surface..

Which is what the ens seem to be pointing too..

Main thing for me is an end to this relentless wind and rain!

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57 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Step 1 Pick model run you like the most and comment on it, totally ignoring the fact that it is out in cloud cuckoo land and will never happen.🎅😉 Merry Christmas everyone and I hope the cold  shows up before November 2019 

Looks like both you and I remember the Atlantic have already been reading it. 😛 That's exactly the stuff that’s mentioned in the book. You’ll also notice it’s written in a language both goats and humans can understand.

In some ways, it’s true how it can seem tempting to some to comment on charts in FI (though could be useful for trend spotting). 

I sure hope so to! ❄️

Merry Christmas 🎅🏻

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2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

No comfort for cold lovers with the 500 mb anomaly charts, all 3 I use show an upper ridge with the centre of Gravity of the +ve heights showing pretty much over the UK.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

and similar of the NOAA 81-4.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The MJO is in 5 and predicted (GFS) to move to 6 with a reasonable position away from the centre.

Six corresponds to nothing helpful from a cold perspective!

Actually I've been finding the MJO composites publicly available, even the ENSO-adjusted ones, to be misleading. It may be a lag-time issue, as that varies greatly depending on the rate of propagation of the MJO and the state of the GWO at the same time. From what I've discovered, the P6 composite should at the very least be HP dominated across the UK... so no surprise how the models have trended for the opening days of Jan.

The existing P7 composites seem more trustworthy though (with their strong HLB signal). Part of this is down to the sample size; it's much larger for P7 and P8 at decent amplitude in Jan than it is for P5 or P6.

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45 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

What in the charts indicates whether or not there will be precip/snow or any other weather type? As a newbie I get confused as to what causes differences of opinion on these type of charts, especially as I just see it as pressure/temp. (Sorry if I am asking a really dumb Q 😬).

You need to look at the chart that shows the 850 hpa. You need to see those temperatures being well below -5 in a westerly airstream because the Atlantic moderates those temperatures at ground level.

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3 minutes ago, karyo said:

You need to look at the chart that shows the 850 hpa. You need to see those temperatures being well below -5 in a westerly airstream because the Atlantic moderates those temperatures at ground level.

We need uppers of -10 on a north westerly, we have seen the devastating effects of the Irish bath time and time again in our part of the country..

Edited by northwestsnow
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After much thought and looking on here,ive come to the conclusion that by about New Years Eve,we should have a fairly nailed on decision as to what the weather is going to be on Xmas Day and Boxing Day lol........Merry Xmas to all.

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1 hour ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Since it’s coming up to Christmas, we’ve decided to extend the loan time of this book. You can now borrow it up to 8 weeks from the library. You may find it useful! 🎅🏻📚

409BB5F4-D19A-46B8-8429-0411B0EB5C9C.thumb.jpeg.7a12b213754f87c53bc0712f438f317c.jpeg

Hey thats me 😜 well at least, that's what I was called in the comp school by many of the other kids as they thought I looked exactly like him.... honestly 😂, anyway, I'm so glad you've found my book useful and to be honest it's nice to see they're still out there as unfortunately this edition was discontinued years ago! I've got a new book being launched next Spring though, it's called "Noddy looks forward to another lovely Summer at the seaside" 

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42 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’s coming!

 

9A7FEDD0-D2AF-4A45-9661-35D69E462F14.png

What Christmas?

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Coming soon, to a thread near YOU! A ramp to nowhere...:yahoo:

Image result for enormous ramp

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8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

What Christmas?

Nice to see the signal is still there for sometime in the distant future:drunk-emoji:..just waiting for the models to show it now!..:santa-emoji:

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2 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Hey thats me 😜 well at least, that's what I was called in the comp school by many of the other kids as they thought I looked exactly like him.... honestly 😂, anyway, I'm so glad you've found my book useful and to be honest it's nice to see they're still out there as unfortunately this edition was discontinued years ago! I've got a new book being launched next Spring though, it's called "Noddy looks forward to another lovely Summer at the seaside" 

Ar man, how exciting! 😎 The models better paint a fine Summer to go along with it! Or that book may turn out to be false! 😂

Your discontinued book was one of the main reasons for me getting to know about the models. That, as well as the handy Netweather’s learners guides along with the informative posts in here. 

It’s a real pleasure to chat to the author of this book. I’d be struggling without it!

Keep up the great work. I’m looking forward to the future releases! 🎅🏻

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nice to see the signal is still there for sometime in the distant future:drunk-emoji:..just waiting for the models to show it now!..:santa-emoji:

A long time ago in a distant galaxy? May the froth be with you...Ffff.fwosty:santa-emoji:

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6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

AO and NAO on the move to negative!

E0B35ECF-C035-4D29-8493-3F100FE9BC55.thumb.gif.20809ed2604b69383491a5bc6855de9f.gifEB996805-104A-4F35-BF8C-6CB864D7924F.thumb.gif.65fa558b6f3ec7144cc69a72283dd701.gif

While there are a few odd lines going into positive towards the end, certainly a general trend in the right direction for the cold weather fans. ❄️

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

AO and NAO on the move to negative!

May be but this is the egg not the chicken!  

I'm pretty sure these are based on GFS and GEFS, they are only reflecting what those models think, with their foibles.  

And as there is uncertainty related to the discrepancy with regard to the strat between the GFS and it's ensembles, I don't think we can conclude anything at all from these plots.

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