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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What a chart (shame it won't verify)...Kinks all over the place and perhaps a slider thrown in too? Changes are afoot!

Netweather GFS Image

It’s about time the nation saw widespread deep snow akin to 1991 in my opinion!

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50 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The only remaining questions, for the Xmas-NY period, would seem to be: How much cloud? How much sun? How much frost? How much fog?

Netweather GFS Image

Could do with a bit of luck to get clearer skies! Need to get rid of the current depressing conditions!

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decent GEFS suite tropospherically.

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Time to get involved again, finally some signs of movement...

ECH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.9dcb0f13dbb681cc0301239ce5375f77.png

gfsnh-0-300.thumb.png.80273619913efaadeaf06b9d6a4f7b80.pnggfsnh-1-300.thumb.png.81b48f4faf6bd3a21c357fc7a7fcb261.png

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Decent FI coming up on the para with low heights sinking into Europe and our high moving NW towards Greenland 

613F2D78-9F24-44F7-83B6-83EA56D34251.png

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No comfort for cold lovers with the 500 mb anomaly charts, all 3 I use show an upper ridge with the centre of Gravity of the +ve heights showing pretty much over the UK.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

and similar of the NOAA 81-4.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The MJO is in 5 and predicted (GFS) to move to 6 with a reasonable position away from the centre.

Six corresponds to nothing helpful from a cold perspective!

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17 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Decent FI coming up on the para with low heights sinking into Europe and our high moving NW towards Greenland 

613F2D78-9F24-44F7-83B6-83EA56D34251.png

For Scotland laughing, but 2 runs in a row now, near enough like this, snowy north, not so snowy south

gfs-0-360.png?6

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19 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

No comfort for cold lovers with the 500 mb anomaly charts, all 3 I use show an upper ridge with the centre of Gravity of the +ve heights showing pretty much over the UK.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

and similar of the NOAA 81-4.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The MJO is in 5 and predicted (GFS) to move to 6 with a reasonable position away from the centre.

Six corresponds to nothing helpful from a cold perspective!

Love your optimism John..😉..personally, I see better signs from the latest models than I've seen for some time and hopefully Exeter continue with their Easterly and snow as we head towards mid Jan!!!!!👍❄️:santa-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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26 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

No comfort for cold lovers with the 500 mb anomaly charts, all 3 I use show an upper ridge with the centre of Gravity of the +ve heights showing pretty much over the UK.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

and similar of the NOAA 81-4.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The MJO is in 5 and predicted (GFS) to move to 6 with a reasonable position away from the centre.

Six corresponds to nothing helpful from a cold perspective!

 

Supposedly that high pressure over the UK is not a bad sign at all

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The latest FV3 decides to drop part of the PV down on us but not esp cold.

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.7634a1f2b2fee0a0a04057961a1cd135.pnggfsnh-1-384.thumb.png.ac66118cea326b5e22646029a0a31b92.png

 

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So both GFS and the Para are going for a switch to substantially colder weather - at last! But, anyway, at this stage, the finer details are of no consequence...

Netweather GFS Image

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45 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

No comfort for cold lovers with the 500 mb anomaly charts, all 3 I use show an upper ridge with the centre of Gravity of the +ve heights showing pretty much over the UK.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

and similar of the NOAA 81-4.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The MJO is in 5 and predicted (GFS) to move to 6 with a reasonable position away from the centre.

Six corresponds to nothing helpful from a cold perspective!

Depends on what you call cold John, I’d imagine for the southeast and central quadrant there could be some severe frosts with sub zero temperatures. 

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That potential signal for colder wintry weather from around mid Jan continues!!!..and overall, the latest output is not as boring as recent days so a mixed outlook, the best of the fine weather further s / se.👍:santa-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That signal for colder wintry weather from around mid Jan continues!!!..and overall, the latest output is not as boring as recent days so a mixed outlook, the best of the fine weather further s / se.👍

Agreed...boring isn’t the word I would use either....06z Gefs p14....is just amazing....keep it coming 😜

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Big variations on the fi gefs members - modelling will struggle big time until it gets a handle on whether there is a downwelling or not and if there is, how strong a wave will come down .....

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1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

No comfort for cold lovers with the 500 mb anomaly charts, all 3 I use show an upper ridge with the centre of Gravity of the +ve heights showing pretty much over the UK.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

and similar of the NOAA 81-4.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The MJO is in 5 and predicted (GFS) to move to 6 with a reasonable position away from the centre.

Six corresponds to nothing helpful from a cold perspective!

Still a step nearer to 7/8 though.

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Since it’s coming up to Christmas, we’ve decided to extend the loan time of this book. You can now borrow it up to 8 weeks from the library. You may find it useful! 🎅🏻📚

409BB5F4-D19A-46B8-8429-0411B0EB5C9C.thumb.jpeg.7a12b213754f87c53bc0712f438f317c.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Since it’s coming up to Christmas, we’ve decided to extend the loan time of this book. You can now borrow it up to 8 weeks from the library. You may find it useful! 🎅🏻📚

409BB5F4-D19A-46B8-8429-0411B0EB5C9C.thumb.jpeg.7a12b213754f87c53bc0712f438f317c.jpeg

Step 1 Pick model run you like the most and comment on it, totally ignoring the fact that it is out in cloud cuckoo land and will never happen.🎅😉 Merry Christmas everyone and I hope the cold  shows up before November 2019 

Edited by lassie23
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1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

Step 1 Pick model run you like the most and comment on it, totally ignoring the fact that it is out in cloud cuckoo land and will never happen.🎅😉

To get everyone to click the 'like' button, and keep a count of the 'likes'

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Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

To get everyone to click the 'like' button, and keep a count of the 'likes'

That is step 2 for sure lol

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Yep, a nice shift in the ENS 06z compared to 00z

image.thumb.png.68c5ed7a02bab2fbc3f2b83425154dfb.png

image.thumb.png.e07776c42a478a2370efb7d503d3119c.png

Note that the control is heading down at the end as well.

image.thumb.png.824118713c8a1627b7219f874a9e0738.png

ECM beyond Day 10 with the dominant cluster (London) showing a clear trend away from mild for start of 2019.

It may amount to nothing but at least we have some eye candy appearing now.

😊

 

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