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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Day ten mean,make of it what you will but it's a dam sight better than the 12z.

gensnh-21-1-240.thumb.png.a623317e1a70d3186f1d18a7808a2df7.png

And better stratospherically as well. Big split signature.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And better stratospherically as well.

Control going for the split too.

gensnh-0-7-324.thumb.png.4c2cd709a54a299b0830b53fa56755b4.pnggensnh-0-7-348.thumb.png.e75e4f83fd4717ebd9ed91749378d953.png

good to see some consistancy from more models now for a split.

mean at 360

gensnh-21-7-360.thumb.png.50b4eec808403af9bb1e554b32bc3360.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
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7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Control going for the split too.

 

good to see some consistancy from more models now for a split.

mean at 360

 

I wish the mean would have the pattern backed further west like the parallel, other than that, a great chart for a mean at that range.

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Even better ridging on the 18z Parallel, Scotland even catches a brief passing Northerly. Think we will get a good split on this run. Does the parallel do 10hpa geopotential height charts yet?

 

gfsnh-0-198.png?18

Edited by Snowy L
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6 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Even better ridging on the 18z Parallel, Scotland even catches a brief passing Northerly. Think we will get a good split on this run. Does the parallel do 10hpa geopotential height charts yet?

 

 

No, the data is available freely, If you ask Interitus nicely, he might do you one.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wish the mean would have the pattern backed further west like the parallel, other than that, a great chart for a mean at that range.

Don't you mean further east?

we have the lobe over the uk  on the mean at 360 of which is later than the para,where as the parra has it further east over europe at 324.

gensnh-21-7-360.thumb.png.895d84bca5e8f76bc9c15ef4fe35e7e5.pnggfsnh-10-324.thumb.png.982ba6d49c0af65d6df5f67288b9ec35.png

hardly worth worrying about at this range but still timings and final placements to be resolved

 

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7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Don't you mean further east?

we have the lobe over the uk  on the mean at 360 of which is later than the para,where as the parra has it further east over europe at 324.

 

hardly worth worrying about at this range but still timings and final placements to be resolved

 

Yes sorry - further East.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes sorry - further East.

Thanks,i was getting worried that i might of been wrong with the placement of the lobes but to me the parra looks more favourable regards to the split

i am still struggling with the strat/trop profiles and i need to get my head around them more.

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This must be our best chance in 31 years to at least come close to matching the severe cold of Jan 87 in so much that the cold spell is predicted to start around the coldest part of the winter, plus everything in the upper atmosphere seems to be going in our favour, for once! 

Never forget walking along the south downs at around 750ft with temp showing around MINUS10 at midday that year! on the Monday 12th 87,crazy.

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2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

This must be our best chance in 31 years to at least come close to matching the severe cold of Jan 87 in so much that the cold spell is predicted to start around the coldest part of the winter, plus everything in the upper atmosphere seems to be going in our favour, for once! 

Never forget walking along the south downs at around 750ft with temp showing around MINUS10 at midday that year! on the Monday 12th 87,crazy.

Id of been 7/8yrs, if i remember correctly that was the winter  i went to my friends house for an hr or so after school, came out of hers to go home and there must of been at least 10cm of snow within that short time

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The New Year looks very likely to begin dry and settled, probably frost and fog a theme so a both of a throwback in that respect.

It is still well over a week away so things could change but UK high does look a good bet, but where do we go from there?

Given the strat forecasts one would hope the Atlantic train is somewhat derailed once we are into January proper so hopefully getting high pressure into the northern latitudes from there should be very plausible.

Actually watching the srat is probably more entertaining than watching the pressure patterns at the moment, this is a slow process. 

 

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