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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Lets pretend for a second that the GFS(P) Strat forecasts happened in reality. It'd be R.I.P Vortex until autumn 2019 and very likely somewhere in the Mid-Latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere would see a truly incredible, prolonged spell of very cold, historical weather.. 

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    Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

    After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

    Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    And the full run,stunning isn't it?

    tempresult_tzs3.thumb.gif.a4ecfeb7d46e8117a02a433244356b6f.giftempresult_xhs4.thumb.gif.1e4f1ae53440031cf0b7703925744115.gif

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Wonderful Strat profile on the Para    Total Split   one side over above Canada which should stop anything becoming west based   and a additional warming at the end of the run.    Middle of January could well be fun 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 hour ago, karyo said:

    Yes, the strato vortex looks like re-organising after a not great split. The last gfs run that showed a good split was the 12z yesterday.

    Agreed..

    PZ Para back to looking good though, wonder why such a difference?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Agreed..

    PZ Para back to looking good though, wonder why such a difference?

    I just want all models to show the major split from now on so that we can relax a bit. This on and off game is exhausting! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    Lots of patience required. But things are ever so slowly falling into place for a quite noteworthy cold period right in the heart of mid-winter I feel.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    45 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    Yes, some real crackers in there and how's this for a day 16 mean!

    gensnh-21-1-384_fdh2.png

    Only IDO is allowed to post the GEFS 16 day mean

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Impressive chart with 5 members going into reverse even further 

    4F52EF39-E7DA-4A8D-8A9F-F08E3DB526FE.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
    1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

    Only IDO is allowed to post the GEFS 16 day mean

    Yes a good chart MS.

    We can see the movement of the vortex over to the Siberian side after day 10 and by day 15 the anomalies are just about where we want them.


    gensnh-21-5-240.thumb.png.5cf9df18b076191ea2d9a8f9ca9fe7fd.pnggensnh-21-5-384.thumb.png.ba012ac6432d75b000fd7f8d3f279872.png

    now if we can build on that...

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, Ali1977 said:

    Impressive chart with 5 members going into reverse even further 

    4F52EF39-E7DA-4A8D-8A9F-F08E3DB526FE.png

    The Mean will do me just fine ??

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Impressive chart with 5 members going into reverse even further 

    4F52EF39-E7DA-4A8D-8A9F-F08E3DB526FE.png

    What a lovely chart that is!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Impressive chart with 5 members going into reverse even further 

    4F52EF39-E7DA-4A8D-8A9F-F08E3DB526FE.png

    Some cracking reversal speeds there. Does anyone know what the record negative wind speeds is for January?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    What a lovely chart that is!!

    Not sure why the Op is such an outlier from so early on - let’s hope that’s wrong!!

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    3 hours ago, winterof79 said:

    I am still plumping for the Aleutian low and High somewhere in our vicinity.

    I really do feel the GEFS will sort this out after a while here is the mean and a couple of others from the panel

    I am of the opinion that Greenland may be the preferred resting place.

     

     

     

     

    gensnh-21-1-240.png

    gensnh-8-1-240.png

    gensnh-11-1-240.png

    gensnh-18-1-240.png

    Another move in the right direction

    Screenshot_20181221-124711_Chrome.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Not sure why the Op is such an outlier from so early on - let’s hope that’s wrong!!

    Yes i agree, the op has not been on the same page for days and days, Blue says the EC det brings the split but its been delayed..

    No more delays please EC,  i don't like delays..

    (Better not travel to Dover April onwards then!!)..

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Kirkcaldy Weather

    Yes indeed.  I didn’t expect HLB this month Jan for that, but I also did not expect ‘the slug’ to affect Xmas period.  I love the 06z gfs(p) too

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
    24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Tasty, tasty; very, very tasty!:yahoo:

    Netweather GFS Image

    Why do they always have to have a mild sector thrown up from France! Arrgh

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    3 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

    Why do they always have to have a mild sector thrown up from France! Arrgh

    We can 'thank' the Alps for that.

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    8 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

    Why do they always have to have a mild sector thrown up from France! Arrgh

    I like what i see coming in behind that mild sector.. some serious cold air there.

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    1 hour ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

     

    See also 

    Regarding the FV3, the 06z minimum was +1.9 m/s for 3/1 0z but was +7 m/s by the end as the split vortices retreated northwards slightly.

    It was like a stronger split version of the 00z where the min was 7.1 m/s and 18.9 m/s at the end as the vortex reformed and slightly displaced from the pole and back to square one.

     

     

     

    Edited by Interitus
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    The positives for the “Hunt” continue 

    DF7CE256-EDD5-4D81-B90F-192E8560FEB5.thumb.gif.805ebb76154f0210d5520afbce570c92.gifC05666CA-4CFA-48F8-8635-DB0FA8642722.thumb.gif.f5d75a4b3eb33e33d893dcde8fc50abf.gif

    AO way more negative than yesterday’s ?

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
    • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
    • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
    • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)
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