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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

FV3 a better split,look how wide that is😍

gfsnh-10-324.thumb.png.babcd957d48f3ca651ec728b7fd5c5c3.png

the mean taking a dive at the end.

graphe_ens3_gej3.thumb.gif.de6fadef9a6b8cfba2dd2c946e060ada.gif

Yes, that's good to see on the parallel. Much better than the 0z.

 

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Just now, karyo said:

Yes, that's good to see on the parallel. Much better than the 0z.

 

More warming appearing at 360...

WOW.

gfsnh-10-360.thumb.png.76f7e5b23c1efcdee5c0b2abdbb0b75f.png

 

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Lets pretend for a second that the GFS(P) Strat forecasts happened in reality. It'd be R.I.P Vortex until autumn 2019 and very likely somewhere in the Mid-Latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere would see a truly incredible, prolonged spell of very cold, historical weather.. 

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And the full run,stunning isn't it😁

tempresult_tzs3.thumb.gif.a4ecfeb7d46e8117a02a433244356b6f.giftempresult_xhs4.thumb.gif.1e4f1ae53440031cf0b7703925744115.gif

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Wonderful Strat profile on the Para    Total Split   one side over above Canada which should stop anything becoming west based   and a additional warming at the end of the run.    Middle of January could well be fun 

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1 hour ago, karyo said:

Yes, the strato vortex looks like re-organising after a not great split. The last gfs run that showed a good split was the 12z yesterday.

Agreed..

PZ Para back to looking good though, wonder why such a difference?

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed..

PZ Para back to looking good though, wonder why such a difference?

I just want all models to show the major split from now on so that we can relax a bit. This on and off game is exhausting! 🤣

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Lots of patience required. But things are ever so slowly falling into place for a quite noteworthy cold period right in the heart of mid-winter I feel.

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45 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Yes, some real crackers in there and how's this for a day 16 mean!

gensnh-21-1-384_fdh2.png

Only IDO is allowed to post the GEFS 16 day mean

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Impressive chart with 5 members going into reverse even further 

4F52EF39-E7DA-4A8D-8A9F-F08E3DB526FE.png

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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Only IDO is allowed to post the GEFS 16 day mean

Yes a good chart MS.

We can see the movement of the vortex over to the Siberian side after day 10 and by day 15 the anomalies are just about where we want them.


gensnh-21-5-240.thumb.png.5cf9df18b076191ea2d9a8f9ca9fe7fd.pnggensnh-21-5-384.thumb.png.ba012ac6432d75b000fd7f8d3f279872.png

now if we can build on that...

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Just now, Ali1977 said:

Impressive chart with 5 members going into reverse even further 

4F52EF39-E7DA-4A8D-8A9F-F08E3DB526FE.png

The Mean will do me just fine 👌🥶

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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Impressive chart with 5 members going into reverse even further 

4F52EF39-E7DA-4A8D-8A9F-F08E3DB526FE.png

What a lovely chart that is!!

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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Impressive chart with 5 members going into reverse even further 

4F52EF39-E7DA-4A8D-8A9F-F08E3DB526FE.png

Some cracking reversal speeds there. Does anyone know what the record negative wind speeds is for January?

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

What a lovely chart that is!!

Not sure why the Op is such an outlier from so early on - let’s hope that’s wrong!!

Edited by Ali1977

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3 hours ago, winterof79 said:

I am still plumping for the Aleutian low and High somewhere in our vicinity.

I really do feel the GEFS will sort this out after a while here is the mean and a couple of others from the panel

I am of the opinion that Greenland may be the preferred resting place.

 

 

 

 

gensnh-21-1-240.png

gensnh-8-1-240.png

gensnh-11-1-240.png

gensnh-18-1-240.png

Another move in the right direction

Screenshot_20181221-124711_Chrome.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Not sure why the Op is such an outlier from so early on - let’s hope that’s wrong!!

Yes i agree, the op has not been on the same page for days and days, Blue says the EC det brings the split but its been delayed..

No more delays please EC,  i don't like delays..

(Better not travel to Dover April onwards then!!)..

Edited by northwestsnow

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Kirkcaldy Weather

Yes indeed.  I didn’t expect HLB this month Jan for that, but I also did not expect ‘the slug’ to affect Xmas period.  I love the 06z gfs(p) too

 

BFTP

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24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Tasty, tasty; very, very tasty!:yahoo:

Netweather GFS Image

Why do they always have to have a mild sector thrown up from France! Arrgh

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3 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Why do they always have to have a mild sector thrown up from France! Arrgh

We can 'thank' the Alps for that.

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