Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    3 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Bottom line is we not getting snow any time soon but are we gona get any cold and frostty nights and days under that high!!anybody confirm that the high next week is going to bring cold crisp days and frosty nights!!maybe some temperature maps for day and night if possible please?

    Frost limited to the NE if the UK

    56DE8150-54FF-4501-A65D-43D0D9D650C3.thumb.gif.94fea064b00f2e30e7759f02a1b1fc16.gif758203FF-C956-4CDE-AF6A-E744D25D9FBA.thumb.gif.e5756cfcdfb538f42eb189627a608956.gifEEAF7B8F-FF8D-4D80-B316-2E845191649A.thumb.gif.a924d6aa92281942e36f25e0ebda815b.gif

    Edited by karlos1983
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 5.1k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

    After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

    Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Looks, to me, like it's an as-you-were scenario on the 06Z...Unfortunately the 'as-you-were' could be a fortnight old...? Expect to see the word 'cusp' being used sometime during the next week...?

    Netweather GFS Image

    ITMT, let's see what joys the Para can pull from its hat...!?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    4 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

    ..think you'e going to like the 06z GEFS !

    Whilst the fixation with 10 hPa layer is understandable, analysis of 50 hPa layer proving to be most useful at this stage, particularly regarding ridge development.

    gens-20-1-300.png

    A rather large amount of runs showing blocking not to disimular to this. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    5 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

    ..think you'e going to like the 06z GEFS !

    Whilst the fixation with 10 hPa layer is understandable, analysis of 50 hPa layer proving to be most useful at this stage, particularly regarding ridge development.

    Yes, some real crackers in there and how's this for a day 16 mean!

    gensnh-21-1-384_fdh2.png

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, Johnp said:

    Yes, some real crackers in there and how's this for a day 16 mean!

    gensnh-21-1-384_fdh2.png

    Now that’s a tasty Mean ?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    5 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

    ..think you'e going to like the 06z GEFS !

    Whilst the fixation with 10 hPa layer is understandable, analysis of 50 hPa layer proving to be most useful at this stage, particularly regarding ridge development.

    Going in exactly the same direction as the extended eps and ec 46 .......would love to see this settle down now (as February did) 

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport
    8 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

    ..think you'e going to like the 06z GEFS !

    Whilst the fixation with 10 hPa layer is understandable, analysis of 50 hPa layer proving to be most useful at this stage, particularly regarding ridge development.

    Your not wrong GP.

    Peturb 3 for example. ?

    gensnh-3-1-360.png

    Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    That's one hell of a mean and fits in perfectly with last nights EC46 run

    GEFS.thumb.png.a93c1e740619da531b832fac3ad309b7.png

    More runs like this today and I think we can officially start the countdown to cold..

    Postage stamps certainly going for a blocking high somewhere..

    gens_panel_zgk4.thumb.png.9a65e5269dcc98424e1b1f234290dcae.png

    Edited by Daniel Smith
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

    I keep hearing ‘west based -NAO’ being said like it’s a plague , can someone explain why? Does it open us to tropical air ? 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    1 minute ago, Raythan said:

    I keep hearing ‘west based -NAO’ being said like it’s a plague , can someone explain why? Does it open us to tropical air ? 

    Yes. A West based -NAO puts the high pressure more towards the American side and that allows low pressure from the Atlantic to move up into the UK. 

    East based, high pressure over our side of the Atlantic/Greenland keeps low pressure South and the UK in the cold airflow

    East.thumb.png.ab3967173238d0fd6280dcbd24b2697a.png

    West based

    West.thumb.png.9511946ce954b5591062bfd58f7eeb06.png

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, Raythan said:

    I keep hearing ‘west based -NAO’ being said like it’s a plague , can someone explain why? Does it open us to tropical air ? 

    Depending on the euro pattern to our south - yes, sou’westers 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    43 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Bottom line is we not getting snow any time soon but are we gona get any cold and frostty nights and days under that high!!anybody confirm that the high next week is going to bring cold crisp days and frosty nights!!maybe some temperature maps for day and night if possible please?

    Largely cloudy I should think, maybe some frost towards the north east as posted by Karlos a page back...a lot of Tm air getting into the mix unfortunately.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Decent low res GFS (P)

    59B3B166-653E-4FF1-9C17-902194C1F4AE.thumb.png.a7126cdf110e9b16ee6240e70849fd67.png447D3871-09EF-4CE0-A76A-8D78041F0F01.thumb.png.e586d1650889a5840bd1f1d68c872282.png

    Similar to Yestersays 12z GFS operational, More transient as @bluearmy eluded to earlier perhaps ?

    Edited by karlos1983
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
    1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

    As long as the word Bartlett is not being mentioned otherwise we are in trouble!?

    I won’t even dare ask ! 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    FV3 a better split,look how wide that is?

    gfsnh-10-324.thumb.png.babcd957d48f3ca651ec728b7fd5c5c3.png

    the mean taking a dive at the end.

    graphe_ens3_gej3.thumb.gif.de6fadef9a6b8cfba2dd2c946e060ada.gif

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    Just now, snowflakey said:

    What is a Bartlett ?

    Young bart simpson!

    jokes aside,the dreaded euro slug south of us with contant SW winds.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
    2 minutes ago, snowflakey said:

    What is a Bartlett ?

    You don’t want to know ?

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    FV3 a better split,look how wide that is?

    gfsnh-10-324.thumb.png.babcd957d48f3ca651ec728b7fd5c5c3.png

    the mean taking a dive at the end.

    graphe_ens3_gej3.thumb.gif.de6fadef9a6b8cfba2dd2c946e060ada.gif

    Yes, that's good to see on the parallel. Much better than the 0z.

     

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    Just now, karyo said:

    Yes, that's good to see on the parallel. Much better than the 0z.

     

    More warming appearing at 360...

    WOW.

    gfsnh-10-360.thumb.png.76f7e5b23c1efcdee5c0b2abdbb0b75f.png

     

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
    • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
    • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
    • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...