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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Bottom line is we not getting snow any time soon but are we gona get any cold and frostty nights and days under that high!!anybody confirm that the high next week is going to bring cold crisp days and frosty nights!!maybe some temperature maps for day and night if possible please🤔

Looks more like we'll be progressing from cyclonic gloom to anticyclonic gloom. A lot of cloud trapped in the high I would imagine so not great. At least it will be a lot drier...

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Bottom line is we not getting snow any time soon but are we gona get any cold and frostty nights and days under that high!!anybody confirm that the high next week is going to bring cold crisp days and frosty nights!!maybe some temperature maps for day and night if possible please🤔

Frost limited to the NE if the UK

56DE8150-54FF-4501-A65D-43D0D9D650C3.thumb.gif.94fea064b00f2e30e7759f02a1b1fc16.gif758203FF-C956-4CDE-AF6A-E744D25D9FBA.thumb.gif.e5756cfcdfb538f42eb189627a608956.gifEEAF7B8F-FF8D-4D80-B316-2E845191649A.thumb.gif.a924d6aa92281942e36f25e0ebda815b.gif

Edited by karlos1983

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Looks, to me, like it's an as-you-were scenario on the 06Z...Unfortunately the 'as-you-were' could be a fortnight old...? Expect to see the word 'cusp' being used sometime during the next week...😁

Netweather GFS Image

ITMT, let's see what joys the Para can pull from its hat...!🎩

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4 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

..think you'e going to like the 06z GEFS !

Whilst the fixation with 10 hPa layer is understandable, analysis of 50 hPa layer proving to be most useful at this stage, particularly regarding ridge development.

gens-20-1-300.png

A rather large amount of runs showing blocking not to disimular to this. 

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5 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

..think you'e going to like the 06z GEFS !

Whilst the fixation with 10 hPa layer is understandable, analysis of 50 hPa layer proving to be most useful at this stage, particularly regarding ridge development.

Yes, some real crackers in there and how's this for a day 16 mean!

gensnh-21-1-384_fdh2.png

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Just now, Johnp said:

Yes, some real crackers in there and how's this for a day 16 mean!

gensnh-21-1-384_fdh2.png

Now that’s a tasty Mean 😋

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5 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

..think you'e going to like the 06z GEFS !

Whilst the fixation with 10 hPa layer is understandable, analysis of 50 hPa layer proving to be most useful at this stage, particularly regarding ridge development.

Going in exactly the same direction as the extended eps and ec 46 .......would love to see this settle down now (as February did) 

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8 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

..think you'e going to like the 06z GEFS !

Whilst the fixation with 10 hPa layer is understandable, analysis of 50 hPa layer proving to be most useful at this stage, particularly regarding ridge development.

Your not wrong GP.

Peturb 3 for example. 🤑

gensnh-3-1-360.png

Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls

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That's one hell of a mean and fits in perfectly with last nights EC46 run

GEFS.thumb.png.a93c1e740619da531b832fac3ad309b7.png

More runs like this today and I think we can officially start the countdown to cold..

Postage stamps certainly going for a blocking high somewhere..

gens_panel_zgk4.thumb.png.9a65e5269dcc98424e1b1f234290dcae.png

Edited by Daniel Smith

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I keep hearing ‘west based -NAO’ being said like it’s a plague , can someone explain why? Does it open us to tropical air ? 

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1 minute ago, Raythan said:

I keep hearing ‘west based -NAO’ being said like it’s a plague , can someone explain why? Does it open us to tropical air ? 

Yes. A West based -NAO puts the high pressure more towards the American side and that allows low pressure from the Atlantic to move up into the UK. 

East based, high pressure over our side of the Atlantic/Greenland keeps low pressure South and the UK in the cold airflow

East.thumb.png.ab3967173238d0fd6280dcbd24b2697a.png

West based

West.thumb.png.9511946ce954b5591062bfd58f7eeb06.png

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2 minutes ago, Raythan said:

I keep hearing ‘west based -NAO’ being said like it’s a plague , can someone explain why? Does it open us to tropical air ? 

Depending on the euro pattern to our south - yes, sou’westers 

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43 minutes ago, shaky said:

Bottom line is we not getting snow any time soon but are we gona get any cold and frostty nights and days under that high!!anybody confirm that the high next week is going to bring cold crisp days and frosty nights!!maybe some temperature maps for day and night if possible please🤔

Largely cloudy I should think, maybe some frost towards the north east as posted by Karlos a page back...a lot of Tm air getting into the mix unfortunately.

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Decent low res GFS (P)

59B3B166-653E-4FF1-9C17-902194C1F4AE.thumb.png.a7126cdf110e9b16ee6240e70849fd67.png447D3871-09EF-4CE0-A76A-8D78041F0F01.thumb.png.e586d1650889a5840bd1f1d68c872282.png

Similar to Yestersays 12z GFS operational, More transient as @bluearmy eluded to earlier perhaps ?

Edited by karlos1983

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6 minutes ago, Raythan said:

I keep hearing ‘west based -NAO’ being said like it’s a plague , can someone explain why? Does it open us to tropical air ? 

As long as the word Bartlett is not being mentioned otherwise we are in trouble!😡

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1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

As long as the word Bartlett is not being mentioned otherwise we are in trouble!😡

I won’t even dare ask ! 

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FV3 a better split,look how wide that is😍

gfsnh-10-324.thumb.png.babcd957d48f3ca651ec728b7fd5c5c3.png

the mean taking a dive at the end.

graphe_ens3_gej3.thumb.gif.de6fadef9a6b8cfba2dd2c946e060ada.gif

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Just now, snowflakey said:

What is a Bartlett 😉

Young bart simpson!

jokes aside,the dreaded euro slug south of us with contant SW winds.

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2 minutes ago, snowflakey said:

What is a Bartlett 😉

You don’t want to know 🤮

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