Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

With inter-model and cross-model support for the dominant UK High scenario for a run after run, we really have to accept that this is a locked in a pattern for the medium term. Ignoring the pending SSW, as experts are suggesting mid-late Jan for trop interest if no quick response, we have to see what the trop is telling us? With no wave 2 activity even close to manifesting then the UK high could be the driver for a while as naturally the HP cells will cycle from the west and try to nudge north at the weakest opening! With the strat PV taking forever to move from our NW to the NE that really precludes any HLB'ing other than in the odd rogue run. By D16 the mean PV has meandered more to our NE but really no help for short-term cold even then. 

Lots of frustrated comments and that is not a surprise, the hype for this Winter has been hyperbolic and TBH so far it has been contrary to those expectations, no wonder the casual viewer has become exasperated. This has become a hope casting thread with those commenting on the current model output beaten down with the hammer that is the SSW. The time will come for SSW impacts, but in the here and now the models are all singing from the same hymn sheet and that is a seasonal settled HP dominant UK which will be a blessing for many Xmas families travel plans.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, The Eagle said:

gens-21-1-204.png

 

The upper ridge to our south going absolutely nowhere. It is catastrophic for coldies and I fully expect at least 4 - 6 weeks from now to be knocked out of the winter in terms of any meaningful cold. 

Unfortunate but we are stuck in a rut that is hugely difficult to see getting out of.

Mmmm. That,s what was showing on 19th/20th December 1962........that rut didn't,t prove particularly difficult to get out of Eagle.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking through the gefs from t300 and the amount that show some form of blocking is remarkable. Some fall “right” for us others not so but blocking is evident in many. 4/5 days ago none of them showed any form of blocking.  Trends not detail is what should be looked for 15 plus days away. 👍👍 

8D69C40D-CD1C-4054-B48C-481EC155EAE3.jpeg

Edited by That ECM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, IDO said:

With inter-model and cross-model support for the dominant UK High scenario for a run after run, we really have to accept that this is a locked in a pattern for the medium term. Ignoring the pending SSW, as experts are suggesting mid-late Jan for trop interest if no quick response, we have to see what the trop is telling us? With no wave 2 activity even close to manifesting then the UK high could be the driver for a while as naturally the HP cells will cycle from the west and try to nudge north at the weakest opening! With the strat PV taking forever to move from our NW to the NE that really precludes any HLB'ing other than in the odd rogue run. By D16 the mean PV has meandered more to our NE but really no help for short-term cold even then. 

Lots of frustrated comments and that is not a surprise, the hype for this Winter has been hyperbolic and TBH so far it has been contrary to those expectations, no wonder the casual viewer has become exasperated. This has become a hope casting thread with those commenting on the current model output beaten down with the hammer that is the SSW. The time will come for SSW impacts, but in the here and now the models are all singing from the same hymn sheet and that is a seasonal settled HP dominant UK which will be a blessing for many Xmas families travel plans.

 

More a case of a lack of patience causing exasperation.  I can just imagine all the winters over posts in mid Jan 1947 if this forum had existed then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, IDO said:

With inter-model and cross-model support for the dominant UK High scenario for a run after run, we really have to accept that this is a locked in a pattern for the medium term. Ignoring the pending SSW, as experts are suggesting mid-late Jan for trop interest if no quick response, we have to see what the trop is telling us? With no wave 2 activity even close to manifesting then the UK high could be the driver for a while as naturally the HP cells will cycle from the west and try to nudge north at the weakest opening! With the strat PV taking forever to move from our NW to the NE that really precludes any HLB'ing other than in the odd rogue run. By D16 the mean PV has meandered more to our NE but really no help for short-term cold even then. 

Lots of frustrated comments and that is not a surprise, the hype for this Winter has been hyperbolic and TBH so far it has been contrary to those expectations, no wonder the casual viewer has become exasperated. This has become a hope casting thread with those commenting on the current model output beaten down with the hammer that is the SSW. The time will come for SSW impacts, but in the here and now the models are all singing from the same hymn sheet and that is a seasonal settled HP dominant UK which will be a blessing for many Xmas families travel plans.

 

Have to agree with this - there is little interest in the next 7 - 10 days.

The calmer weather at this time of year is a blessing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Gerryhattrick said:

I love this thread it's informative and educational but now and again it takes a downward spiral. Can we please move on before it goes down the plughole.

 

Was just about to say the same thing. As a newbie wanting to learn, the recent wind-up posts are really not helpful and i'm getting fed up of having to weed out the chaff just to get to the more knowledgeable posts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

The problem is, we have many spending hours on this forum, explaining why things may and may not happen. The pros, the cons with a certain setup. The background signals, from Pacific forcings to Solar to the Enso state.Going to great lengths to point out the mechanisms, the caveats, the opportunities. I understand why some feel, why do I bother?

95% are here to do exactly what the forum title says, 'HUNT FOR COLD'. Whether that is looking for a glimmer of hope in a flat zonal profile with poor background signals or in more interesting times, aka right now, it is the whole point of being here on this forum surely? Clearly this forum would be redundant if we all lived in Antartica, but we don't, we live in an area that is usually beyond the reach of any easterly train from the east and with a continuous warm belt of water being pumped up from the Gulf of Mexico to our west. The odds are stacked against us right from the off. The dice are heavily loaded and they are not in our favour.

And that is the thing, the crux, the whole point is the chase itself. I won't go as far as to say the cold actually landing is secondary, but before it does, the chase, the hunt, the hope, the despair, the rollercoaster, that is why we torture ourselves on here every winter. I am a die hard lifelong Spurs fan, so that probably makes me a masochist! 🙂  But the fact remains that for the 95%, just seeing those cold charts appear gives us the buzz we all crave at the time. That may make me look like a total fruit loop in 'real life' but I know full well most of you know exactly where I am coming from!! 🙂

It is a shame then that we will always get one or two miserable posters who take a few op charts as gospel and on complete face value. Bad enough but to then, through no skill but their own negativity, extend that op chart out to several weeks / months beyond is what really gets people's backs up on here.

 

 

Great post S4L. 

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ridge being held a bit too far SE at times IMO. Models still getting a bit carried away with the MJO phase 5 lagged influence.

Hints of some trop response to split SSW as of day 10 on ECM, similar pace to yesterday’s runs there, GFS taking until day 16 to produce the strat split in the first place but seems to me 12z of yesterday was a trop-led fluke and really it’s still missing crucial details in the upper stratosphere.

Not saying that 12z should be disregarded though - while it was perhaps a bit fast, the sudden sharpening up of the Atlantic trough leading to our ridge evolving into a Scandi High is a reasonable interpretation of what the MJO moving beyond phase 5 can do for us by early Jan.

Edited by Singularity
Scandi Note

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The models currently don't offer snow but they do suggest a seasonal feeling outlook under high pressure ( s ) with frosts and fog (some freezing)...better than raging mild sw'ly zephyrs / blow torch southerlies in my book!!!😉:santa-emoji:...and January could bring the snow..towards mid Jan is where my attention is now!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well the first thrust of heights looks to have been shifted a little south east over the Christmas to New Year week.

EDM1-96.GIF?21-12   EDM1-120.GIF?21-12

so winds from the south or south west, at the moment we could end up with a lot of cloud spilling in from the Atlantic which could result in temperatures being held up somewhat rather than the classic initial clears skies and frost and fog that comes with it.

Week 2, another go at developing a UK high.

EDM1-192.GIF?21-12   EDM1-240.GIF?21-12

The problem at the moment is the signal is strong at building and rebuilding this high over western Europe, again even for surface cold we always seem to end up with winds between the south and west across the whole of the UK, as someone living closer to the centre of the high than most, the fact that most forecasts keep temperatures here in high single figures through the Christmas period means we will probably have to deal with a lot of overcast skies and rather uninspiring temperatures. Hopefully we will see an improvement, even shifting the high a little further north to pull chillier air in from the continent would help at this point. I guess maybe a good excuse to enjoy the festivities and return to find a better outlook which will be properly showing the effects of the SSW.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As the saying goes good gardening weather !

I know it must seem that the high to the south will remain till the end of time but it’s simply a reflection of the upstream pattern which is as flat as a pancake.

Patience is understandably wearing thin for coldies but there’s not much we can do but wait!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, The Eagle said:

gens-21-1-204.png

 

The upper ridge to our south going absolutely nowhere. It is catastrophic for coldies and I fully expect at least 4 - 6 weeks from now to be knocked out of the winter in terms of any meaningful cold. 

Unfortunate but we are stuck in a rut that is hugely difficult to see getting out of.

Are you living in some kind of bubble?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Extended EPS again shows a (marginal) improvement.  The core of the higher heights slightly further north while a band of lower than normal heights appearing across southern Med, northern Africa, Balkans and up into Ukraine/Russia.  Not perfect but getting there!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH i think thats a bit insulting to  many members on here- its the 'hunt for cold ' thread afterall.

I dont see much hopecasting? Of course people are going to look for cold 'avenues', the clue is in the title of the thread..

 

May I recommend the ignore list?

It's very cathartic 😀

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

as i tried to explain about the strat the other day there's another warming showing if we dont get a split this time then the next one will do the trick.

image.thumb.png.202630f54702207dc91bdb4ea86805ca.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...