Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[IDO 5,720]

With inter-model and cross-model support for the dominant UK High scenario for a run after run, we really have to accept that this is a locked in a pattern for the medium term. Ignoring the pending SSW, as experts are suggesting mid-late Jan for trop interest if no quick response, we have to see what the trop is telling us? With no wave 2 activity even close to manifesting then the UK high could be the driver for a while as naturally the HP cells will cycle from the west and try to nudge north at the weakest opening! With the strat PV taking forever to move from our NW to the NE that really precludes any HLB'ing other than in the odd rogue run. By D16 the mean PV has meandered more to our NE but really no help for short-term cold even then. 

Lots of frustrated comments and that is not a surprise, the hype for this Winter has been hyperbolic and TBH so far it has been contrary to those expectations, no wonder the casual viewer has become exasperated. This has become a hope casting thread with those commenting on the current model output beaten down with the hammer that is the SSW. The time will come for SSW impacts, but in the here and now the models are all singing from the same hymn sheet and that is a seasonal settled HP dominant UK which will be a blessing for many Xmas families travel plans.

 

[Broadmayne blizzard 2,116]

1 hour ago, The Eagle said:

 

The upper ridge to our south going absolutely nowhere. It is catastrophic for coldies and I fully expect at least 4 - 6 weeks from now to be knocked out of the winter in terms of any meaningful cold. 

Unfortunate but we are stuck in a rut that is hugely difficult to see getting out of.

Mmmm. That,s what was showing on 19th/20th December 1962........that rut didn't,t prove particularly difficult to get out of Eagle.

[That ECM 4,365]

Looking through the gefs from t300 and the amount that show some form of blocking is remarkable. Some fall “right” for us others not so but blocking is evident in many. 4/5 days ago none of them showed any form of blocking.  Trends not detail is what should be looked for 15 plus days away.  

Edited December 21, 2018 by That ECM

[Broadmayne blizzard 2,116]

10 minutes ago, IDO said:

With inter-model and cross-model support for the dominant UK High scenario for a run after run, we really have to accept that this is a locked in a pattern for the medium term. Ignoring the pending SSW, as experts are suggesting mid-late Jan for trop interest if no quick response, we have to see what the trop is telling us? With no wave 2 activity even close to manifesting then the UK high could be the driver for a while as naturally the HP cells will cycle from the west and try to nudge north at the weakest opening! With the strat PV taking forever to move from our NW to the NE that really precludes any HLB'ing other than in the odd rogue run. By D16 the mean PV has meandered more to our NE but really no help for short-term cold even then. 

Lots of frustrated comments and that is not a surprise, the hype for this Winter has been hyperbolic and TBH so far it has been contrary to those expectations, no wonder the casual viewer has become exasperated. This has become a hope casting thread with those commenting on the current model output beaten down with the hammer that is the SSW. The time will come for SSW impacts, but in the here and now the models are all singing from the same hymn sheet and that is a seasonal settled HP dominant UK which will be a blessing for many Xmas families travel plans.

 

More a case of a lack of patience causing exasperation.  I can just imagine all the winters over posts in mid Jan 1947 if this forum had existed then.

[Radiating Dendrite 2,458]

11 minutes ago, IDO said:

With inter-model and cross-model support for the dominant UK High scenario for a run after run, we really have to accept that this is a locked in a pattern for the medium term. Ignoring the pending SSW, as experts are suggesting mid-late Jan for trop interest if no quick response, we have to see what the trop is telling us? With no wave 2 activity even close to manifesting then the UK high could be the driver for a while as naturally the HP cells will cycle from the west and try to nudge north at the weakest opening! With the strat PV taking forever to move from our NW to the NE that really precludes any HLB'ing other than in the odd rogue run. By D16 the mean PV has meandered more to our NE but really no help for short-term cold even then. 

Lots of frustrated comments and that is not a surprise, the hype for this Winter has been hyperbolic and TBH so far it has been contrary to those expectations, no wonder the casual viewer has become exasperated. This has become a hope casting thread with those commenting on the current model output beaten down with the hammer that is the SSW. The time will come for SSW impacts, but in the here and now the models are all singing from the same hymn sheet and that is a seasonal settled HP dominant UK which will be a blessing for many Xmas families travel plans.

 

Have to agree with this - there is little interest in the next 7 - 10 days.

The calmer weather at this time of year is a blessing.

[Jon Snow 66,991]

No white Christmas again this year but looking at the latest models, not as mild next week and with high pressure becoming dominant, there should be some overnight frosts and freezing fog depending on cloud-cover and the orientation / position of the anticyclone.

[s4lancia 8,266]

36 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Very bizzare Analysis!!..

Any downwelling/split/dissplacement...won't take 4-6 weeks my friend..

And with given momentum/modeling...a rapid responce via all levels...gains!!!..considerably.

ps- sod being around waiting for a bus with you .

 

The problem is, we have many spending hours on this forum, explaining why things may and may not happen. The pros, the cons with a certain setup. The background signals, from Pacific forcings to Solar to the Enso state.Going to great lengths to point out the mechanisms, the caveats, the opportunities. I understand why some feel, why do I bother?

95% are here to do exactly what the forum title says, 'HUNT FOR COLD'. Whether that is looking for a glimmer of hope in a flat zonal profile with poor background signals or in more interesting times, aka right now, it is the whole point of being here on this forum surely? Clearly this forum would be redundant if we all lived in Antartica, but we don't, we live in an area that is usually beyond the reach of any easterly train from the east and with a continuous warm belt of water being pumped up from the Gulf of Mexico to our west. The odds are stacked against us right from the off. The dice are heavily loaded and they are not in our favour.

And that is the thing, the crux, the whole point is the chase itself. I won't go as far as to say the cold actually landing is secondary, but before it does, the chase, the hunt, the hope, the despair, the rollercoaster, that is why we torture ourselves on here every winter. I am a die hard lifelong Spurs fan, so that probably makes me a masochist!   But the fact remains that for the 95%, just seeing those cold charts appear gives us the buzz we all crave at the time. That may make me look like a total fruit loop in 'real life' but I know full well most of you know exactly where I am coming from!!

It is a shame then that we will always get one or two miserable posters who take a few op charts as gospel and on complete face value. Bad enough but to then, through no skill but their own negativity, extend that op chart out to several weeks / months beyond is what really gets people's backs up on here.

 

 

[Stonethecrows 467]

1 hour ago, Gerryhattrick said:

I love this thread it's informative and educational but now and again it takes a downward spiral. Can we please move on before it goes down the plughole.

 

Was just about to say the same thing. As a newbie wanting to learn, the recent wind-up posts are really not helpful and i'm getting fed up of having to weed out the chaff just to get to the more knowledgeable posts.

[northwestsnow 14,626]

47 minutes ago, IDO said:

With inter-model and cross-model support for the dominant UK High scenario for a run after run, we really have to accept that this is a locked in a pattern for the medium term. Ignoring the pending SSW, as experts are suggesting mid-late Jan for trop interest if no quick response, we have to see what the trop is telling us? With no wave 2 activity even close to manifesting then the UK high could be the driver for a while as naturally the HP cells will cycle from the west and try to nudge north at the weakest opening! With the strat PV taking forever to move from our NW to the NE that really precludes any HLB'ing other than in the odd rogue run. By D16 the mean PV has meandered more to our NE but really no help for short-term cold even then. 

Lots of frustrated comments and that is not a surprise, the hype for this Winter has been hyperbolic and TBH so far it has been contrary to those expectations, no wonder the casual viewer has become exasperated. This has become a hope casting thread with those commenting on the current model output beaten down with the hammer that is the SSW. The time will come for SSW impacts, but in the here and now the models are all singing from the same hymn sheet and that is a seasonal settled HP dominant UK which will be a blessing for many Xmas families travel plans.

 

TBH i think thats a bit insulting to  many members on here- its the 'hunt for cold ' thread afterall.

I dont see much hopecasting? Of course people are going to look for cold 'avenues', the clue is in the title of the thread..

 

[Broadmayne blizzard 2,116]

6 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

The problem is, we have many spending hours on this forum, explaining why things may and may not happen. The pros, the cons with a certain setup. The background signals, from Pacific forcings to Solar to the Enso state.Going to great lengths to point out the mechanisms, the caveats, the opportunities. I understand why some feel, why do I bother?

95% are here to do exactly what the forum title says, 'HUNT FOR COLD'. Whether that is looking for a glimmer of hope in a flat zonal profile with poor background signals or in more interesting times, aka right now, it is the whole point of being here on this forum surely? Clearly this forum would be redundant if we all lived in Antartica, but we don't, we live in an area that is usually beyond the reach of any easterly train from the east and with a continuous warm belt of water being pumped up from the Gulf of Mexico to our west. The odds are stacked against us right from the off. The dice are heavily loaded and they are not in our favour.

And that is the thing, the crux, the whole point is the chase itself. I won't go as far as to say the cold actually landing is secondary, but before it does, the chase, the hunt, the hope, the despair, the rollercoaster, that is why we torture ourselves on here every winter. I am a die hard lifelong Spurs fan, so that probably makes me a masochist!   But the fact remains that for the 95%, just seeing those cold charts appear gives us the buzz we all crave at the time. That may make me look like a total fruit loop in 'real life' but I know full well most of you know exactly where I am coming from!!

It is a shame then that we will always get one or two miserable posters who take a few op charts as gospel and on complete face value. Bad enough but to then, through no skill but their own negativity, extend that op chart out to several weeks / months beyond is what really gets people's backs up on here.

 

 

Great post S4L. 

Edited December 21, 2018 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Singularity 11,132]

Ridge being held a bit too far SE at times IMO. Models still getting a bit carried away with the MJO phase 5 lagged influence.

Hints of some trop response to split SSW as of day 10 on ECM, similar pace to yesterday’s runs there, GFS taking until day 16 to produce the strat split in the first place but seems to me 12z of yesterday was a trop-led fluke and really it’s still missing crucial details in the upper stratosphere.

Not saying that 12z should be disregarded though - while it was perhaps a bit fast, the sudden sharpening up of the Atlantic trough leading to our ridge evolving into a Scandi High is a reasonable interpretation of what the MJO moving beyond phase 5 can do for us by early Jan.

Edited December 21, 2018 by Singularity
Scandi Note

[carinthian 9,629]

Last one from me for a few weeks. Spending Christmas in the East Sussex Weald, thats ,if I survive a drone attack at Gatwick battlefield ! Then on to British Columbia to see my new grandson during January. Going to ski for a few days in a new resort called Big White but most of my time in Vancouver. I know you cold lovers find the hunt very frustrating, having to wait for weeks on end for it to arrive and then just watch it melt away in a matter of an eye blink. Like the Japanese water drip punishment, a slow painful pulling of the teeth or waiting for Brexit to conclude ! You lot deserve better and fingers crossed for a proper cold and snowy spell to surprise all soon as the picture below shows , when it comes there is no where nicer than the British village. So no snow for my short visit to Blighty but the welcome sight of a nice pub, log fire and fine pint of Sussex Best Bitter awaits. Have a merry Christmas and good New Year and may the snow gods be with you . Cheers, C

[Jon Snow 66,991]

The models currently don't offer snow but they do suggest a seasonal feeling outlook under high pressure ( s ) with frosts and fog (some freezing)...better than raging mild sw'ly zephyrs / blow torch southerlies in my book!!!...and January could bring the snow..towards mid Jan is where my attention is now!!

[karlos1983 21,597]

Great post and well said @s4lancia, although you lost me at life long spurs fan..... 

I really don’t see anything to be negative about, we are all well appraised of the setup for the next week or so, and equally appraised of what’s going on in the stratosphere. 

that above chart at 10hpa is pretty close to, or indeed a split of the PV. This will lead to massively increased chances of cold weather hitting our shores as has been well discussed!

it is a bit of p**s take to just dismiss what a lot have spent countless hours trying to describe, how good our opportunities are for the next few weeks wrt cold winter weather, with throw away comments like “that’s winter done for 6 weeks”. If that’s the case do us all a favour and hibernate! 

Edited December 21, 2018 by karlos1983

[Captain Shortwave 16,746]

Well the first thrust of heights looks to have been shifted a little south east over the Christmas to New Year week.

   

so winds from the south or south west, at the moment we could end up with a lot of cloud spilling in from the Atlantic which could result in temperatures being held up somewhat rather than the classic initial clears skies and frost and fog that comes with it.

Week 2, another go at developing a UK high.

   

The problem at the moment is the signal is strong at building and rebuilding this high over western Europe, again even for surface cold we always seem to end up with winds between the south and west across the whole of the UK, as someone living closer to the centre of the high than most, the fact that most forecasts keep temperatures here in high single figures through the Christmas period means we will probably have to deal with a lot of overcast skies and rather uninspiring temperatures. Hopefully we will see an improvement, even shifting the high a little further north to pull chillier air in from the continent would help at this point. I guess maybe a good excuse to enjoy the festivities and return to find a better outlook which will be properly showing the effects of the SSW.

Edited December 21, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[nick sussex 49,598]

As the saying goes good gardening weather !

I know it must seem that the high to the south will remain till the end of time but it’s simply a reflection of the upstream pattern which is as flat as a pancake.

Patience is understandably wearing thin for coldies but there’s not much we can do but wait!

 

[s4lancia 8,266]

I am not sure how many times I have seen -50 at the top and between the mid and upper lattudes. Ever

.

Incredible chart.

[Broadmayne blizzard 2,116]

As Catocol has mentioned a few posts back we seem to get what I call the knee jerk negative brigade suggesting that because we have a euro/UK high forecast till the new year that somehow that's going to last till march!

If there was one lesson that last winter should have taught us on here it is that even with favourable background signals. Patience is the key.

And guys and gals the background signals are excellent probably the best since 2009/10. We have had the EC46 and Glosea first hinting and then strengthening their signal for cold and a Meto extended outlook that suggests the possibility widespread  snow. The weather is not Amazon that delivers tomorrow just because you want it too. We live in must have it now world which has decreased the patience threshold of some people to practically zero. Hence no sub zero temps or blizzards in the next 7-10 days mean winter's over for them. 

Well hot off the press winter is not over by a long chalk and even the negative knee jerk brigade will be out building snowmen in the not too distant future. 

Sorry for the rant but the baseless negative posts really get my goat.

In the meantime have a merry Xmas,enjoy family, friends and food and come back to some stellar model output as we head towards New year.

[Paul_1978 2,373]

3 hours ago, The Eagle said:

 

The upper ridge to our south going absolutely nowhere. It is catastrophic for coldies and I fully expect at least 4 - 6 weeks from now to be knocked out of the winter in terms of any meaningful cold. 

Unfortunate but we are stuck in a rut that is hugely difficult to see getting out of.

Are you living in some kind of bubble?

[huseinskas 4]

Hahahahahahahahah :):):):):):) come TURKEY

[johnholmes 26,458]

Well it is moving in the right direction, time will tell if this is going to help change the upper air pattern to support any cold for the UK?

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

[mulzy 2,827]

Extended EPS again shows a (marginal) improvement.  The core of the higher heights slightly further north while a band of lower than normal heights appearing across southern Med, northern Africa, Balkans and up into Ukraine/Russia.  Not perfect but getting there!

[Johnp 2,536]

47 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH i think thats a bit insulting to  many members on here- its the 'hunt for cold ' thread afterall.

I dont see much hopecasting? Of course people are going to look for cold 'avenues', the clue is in the title of the thread..

 

May I recommend the ignore list?

It's very cathartic

[MR EXTREMES 2,929]

as i tried to explain about the strat the other day there's another warming showing if we dont get a split this time then the next one will do the trick.

[bluearmy 35,336]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Extended EPS again shows a (marginal) improvement.  The core of the higher heights slightly further north while a band of lower than normal heights appearing across southern Med, northern Africa, Balkans and up into Ukraine/Russia.  Not perfect but getting there!

Bang in line with ec 46 from yesterday's run...... tbh, the way this extended forecast from the eps  is counting down is becoming a little worrying ..... all too consistent ......soemthing will scupper it surely ......... my own thoughts were that a scandi ridge would pop up from our block but the eps are having little to do with that (transitory feature always feasible of course)

the next step is for the Azores trough to edge east into the lower heights you described in your post and our upper ridge edges west into mid Atlantic ..... be interesting to see if the gefs catch onto this ....there have been some signs they might last couple runs