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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Week 6 of the EC weeklies, -NAO in for the long haul? 

 

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30 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

And gradually we'll see the cold weather moved to mid January, then early February, then march and then winter will be over. 

At least we had a bit of snow up here in Scotland last Saturday, better than nothing. Now time for the HP, better than rain and wind. Unfortunately in the long term it does seem like the Atlantic could return though, bringing a spell of mild and wet weather at the beginning of January with the AO gradually turning positive. 

I really hope I'm wrong

What exactly are you basing the Atlantic returning with a positive AO on?? Complete conjecture based upon background signals as the experts here have been explaining all evening. The pieces of the jigsaw may not fall in our favour, but there is absolutely no way of knowing that yet, until the SSW actually happens. Your saying that is almost as unfounded as someone telling us we're guaranteed the coldest winter spell we've ever had in January. Bottom line is be patient and wait to see how the pieces fall into place. 

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Just now, Nick F said:

Week 6 of the EC weeklies, -NAO in for the long haul? 

 

Potentially such a snowy set up for the UK, but perhaps not brutally cold (slightest of west based tinge there). 

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Just now, CreweCold said:

Potentially such a snowy set up for the UK, but perhaps not brutally cold (slightest of west based tinge there). 

Luckily it's only a mean anomaly and would become almost redundant if the SSW falls in our favour

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2 hours ago, Nick F said:

Week 6 of the EC weeklies, -NAO in for the long haul? 

 

I must have  wrong charts then,but overnight ECMWF 46D shows a different anomaly then Ventrice

download (1).png

Edited by jules216

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Are we seeing signs of a second SSW in the GFS, is this possible and what would happen if we did have another - a prolonged 1962/63 maybe!! 

0F4A614E-776E-4A97-8A87-782DF9D41E37.png

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Setting aside the SSW... The high pressure that is now becoming the likely route to build in over the UK is going to take some shifting. Some dry cold and foggy weather. The weather maybe classed as "mundane" for a while but it beats the Atlantic dross all day long ... 

Not to mention the size of the high pressure to its massive! 

Cool that ground down!!!

 

ALL FI  of course currently.. 
 

613169437_GFS1.thumb.png.2b3e392f78c37df1e59bd86bff264de2.png

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gens-21-1-204.png

 

The upper ridge to our south going absolutely nowhere. It is catastrophic for coldies and I fully expect at least 4 - 6 weeks from now to be knocked out of the winter in terms of any meaningful cold. 

Unfortunate but we are stuck in a rut that is hugely difficult to see getting out of.

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24 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

gens-21-1-204.png

 

The upper ridge to our south going absolutely nowhere. It is catastrophic for coldies and I fully expect at least 4 - 6 weeks from now to be knocked out of the winter in terms of any meaningful cold. 

Unfortunate but we are stuck in a rut that is hugely difficult to see getting out of.

I'd wait for NWP to get to grips with the SSW first as the idea is that the Azores ridge drifts northwards into Scandi and across to Greenland. So many notable UK cold spells began with a massive UK high. Patience needed yet. 

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46 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Are we seeing signs of a second SSW in the GFS, is this possible and what would happen if we did have another - a prolonged 1962/63 maybe!! 

0F4A614E-776E-4A97-8A87-782DF9D41E37.png

I noticed this. Work keeping an eye on. Has it appeared in the strat forecast before? 

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42 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

gens-21-1-204.png

 

The upper ridge to our south going absolutely nowhere. It is catastrophic for coldies and I fully expect at least 4 - 6 weeks from now to be knocked out of the winter in terms of any meaningful cold. 

Unfortunate but we are stuck in a rut that is hugely difficult to see getting out of.

You know full well that this chart is before any trop effect from the SSW can possibly have been modelled.

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8 minutes ago, aitchbomb said:

Ooooh wonderful early morning trolling. 

Not so much Trolling  

More realisation  

 

 

 

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I love this thread it's informative and educational but now and again it takes a downward spiral. Can we please move on before it goes down the plughole.

 

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1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Are we seeing signs of a second SSW in the GFS, is this possible and what would happen if we did have another - a prolonged 1962/63 maybe!! 

0F4A614E-776E-4A97-8A87-782DF9D41E37.png

Yeah..i done an-analysis a few days bk..and the flag was there across some supports of a 2nd minor warming..after stage 1 burn up.!!!

A distinct possibilty!!!..

This all while the vortex is/will still be-being slammed via initial, reverbs!!...(ssw)

Quite something.

I'll chuck this up in detail...after todays 12z...

Some real notable occurances..to be had in the upper atmos!!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Take a look at the FI GEFS 👌 the mean isnt without interest with heights heading towards Greenland 

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2 hours ago, jules216 said:

I must have  wrong charts then,but overnight ECMWF 46D shows a different anomaly then Ventrice

download (1).png

The anomolys look suspect ..... the contours are correct 

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Some progress this morning. The mean GEFS 300 hrs chart has a lot of promise.  Let's build on this!

GFSAVGEU00_300_1.png 

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