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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


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30 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

And gradually we'll see the cold weather moved to mid January, then early February, then march and then winter will be over. 

At least we had a bit of snow up here in Scotland last Saturday, better than nothing. Now time for the HP, better than rain and wind. Unfortunately in the long term it does seem like the Atlantic could return though, bringing a spell of mild and wet weather at the beginning of January with the AO gradually turning positive. 

I really hope I'm wrong

What exactly are you basing the Atlantic returning with a positive AO on?? Complete conjecture based upon background signals as the experts here have been explaining all evening. The pieces of the jigsaw may not fall in our favour, but there is absolutely no way of knowing that yet, until the SSW actually happens. Your saying that is almost as unfounded as someone telling us we're guaranteed the coldest winter spell we've ever had in January. Bottom line is be patient and wait to see how the pieces fall into place. 

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Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, Nick F said:

    Week 6 of the EC weeklies, -NAO in for the long haul? 

     

    Potentially such a snowy set up for the UK, but perhaps not brutally cold (slightest of west based tinge there). 

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    Just now, CreweCold said:

    Potentially such a snowy set up for the UK, but perhaps not brutally cold (slightest of west based tinge there). 

    Luckily it's only a mean anomaly and would become almost redundant if the SSW falls in our favour

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    2 hours ago, Nick F said:

    Week 6 of the EC weeklies, -NAO in for the long haul? 

     

    I must have  wrong charts then,but overnight ECMWF 46D shows a different anomaly then Ventrice

    download (1).png

    Edited by jules216
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Are we seeing signs of a second SSW in the GFS, is this possible and what would happen if we did have another - a prolonged 1962/63 maybe!! 

    0F4A614E-776E-4A97-8A87-782DF9D41E37.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Setting aside the SSW... The high pressure that is now becoming the likely route to build in over the UK is going to take some shifting. Some dry cold and foggy weather. The weather maybe classed as "mundane" for a while but it beats the Atlantic dross all day long ... 

    Not to mention the size of the high pressure to its massive! 

    Cool that ground down!!!

     

    ALL FI  of course currently.. 
     

    613169437_GFS1.thumb.png.2b3e392f78c37df1e59bd86bff264de2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    gens-21-1-204.png

     

    The upper ridge to our south going absolutely nowhere. It is catastrophic for coldies and I fully expect at least 4 - 6 weeks from now to be knocked out of the winter in terms of any meaningful cold. 

    Unfortunate but we are stuck in a rut that is hugely difficult to see getting out of.

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    24 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    gens-21-1-204.png

     

    The upper ridge to our south going absolutely nowhere. It is catastrophic for coldies and I fully expect at least 4 - 6 weeks from now to be knocked out of the winter in terms of any meaningful cold. 

    Unfortunate but we are stuck in a rut that is hugely difficult to see getting out of.

    I'd wait for NWP to get to grips with the SSW first as the idea is that the Azores ridge drifts northwards into Scandi and across to Greenland. So many notable UK cold spells began with a massive UK high. Patience needed yet. 

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    46 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Are we seeing signs of a second SSW in the GFS, is this possible and what would happen if we did have another - a prolonged 1962/63 maybe!! 

    0F4A614E-776E-4A97-8A87-782DF9D41E37.png

    I noticed this. Work keeping an eye on. Has it appeared in the strat forecast before? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Gloucester
  • Weather Preferences: Snow that settles then freezes!
  • Location: Gloucester
    42 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    gens-21-1-204.png

     

    The upper ridge to our south going absolutely nowhere. It is catastrophic for coldies and I fully expect at least 4 - 6 weeks from now to be knocked out of the winter in terms of any meaningful cold. 

    Unfortunate but we are stuck in a rut that is hugely difficult to see getting out of.

    You know full well that this chart is before any trop effect from the SSW can possibly have been modelled.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
    8 minutes ago, aitchbomb said:

    Ooooh wonderful early morning trolling. 

    Not so much Trolling  

    More realisation  

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

    Are we seeing signs of a second SSW in the GFS, is this possible and what would happen if we did have another - a prolonged 1962/63 maybe!! 

    0F4A614E-776E-4A97-8A87-782DF9D41E37.png

    Yeah..i done an-analysis a few days bk..and the flag was there across some supports of a 2nd minor warming..after stage 1 burn up.!!!

    A distinct possibilty!!!..

    This all while the vortex is/will still be-being slammed via initial, reverbs!!...(ssw)

    Quite something.

    I'll chuck this up in detail...after todays 12z...

    Some real notable occurances..to be had in the upper atmos!!!!

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Take a look at the FI GEFS ? the mean isnt without interest with heights heading towards Greenland 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 hours ago, jules216 said:

    I must have  wrong charts then,but overnight ECMWF 46D shows a different anomaly then Ventrice

    download (1).png

    The anomolys look suspect ..... the contours are correct 

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Some progress this morning. The mean GEFS 300 hrs chart has a lot of promise.  Let's build on this!

    GFSAVGEU00_300_1.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    With inter-model and cross-model support for the dominant UK High scenario for a run after run, we really have to accept that this is a locked in a pattern for the medium term. Ignoring the pending SSW, as experts are suggesting mid-late Jan for trop interest if no quick response, we have to see what the trop is telling us? With no wave 2 activity even close to manifesting then the UK high could be the driver for a while as naturally the HP cells will cycle from the west and try to nudge north at the weakest opening! With the strat PV taking forever to move from our NW to the NE that really precludes any HLB'ing other than in the odd rogue run. By D16 the mean PV has meandered more to our NE but really no help for short-term cold even then. 

    Lots of frustrated comments and that is not a surprise, the hype for this Winter has been hyperbolic and TBH so far it has been contrary to those expectations, no wonder the casual viewer has become exasperated. This has become a hope casting thread with those commenting on the current model output beaten down with the hammer that is the SSW. The time will come for SSW impacts, but in the here and now the models are all singing from the same hymn sheet and that is a seasonal settled HP dominant UK which will be a blessing for many Xmas families travel plans.

     

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    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
    • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
    • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
    • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)
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