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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


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3 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Op is close to an SPV split over Eurasia in the final frame. Catching a flight early doors so off now but a weirdly positive day given the dire NWP. All to play for

hope your not going from Gatwick..

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Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

    I'm using weather online to view the model output GFS but in the last 24 hrs it's been painfully slow. 

    only reached T168 at 11:30pm 

    Any tips or advice or links.

    I would say where onto a spell of winteryness T240 .

    Thanks sp

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    18z certainly not the best of runs, but its just about a mild outlier as we go into the new year, some very cold member in there so lots to look forward to.

     

    London and Manchester Ensembles:

    graphe_ens3.gif

    graphe_ens3-1.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    9 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

    I'm using weather online to view the model output GFS but in the last 24 hrs it's been painfully slow. 

    only reached T168 at 11:30pm 

    Any tips or advice or links.

    I would say where onto a spell of winteryness T240 .

    Thanks sp

     

    Meteociel!!!!!  

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=10&mode=1&carte=1

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    5 minutes ago, ITSY said:

    Consider this coffee smelt. 

     

    A14A1094-6E91-4C29-8156-D43E97F56F31.gif

    Yes some cold members starting to appear towards the back end now...right when we'd be expecting some of the good stuff to start appearing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

    Thanks Feb your a star.❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    GFS(P) looks to be headed for a split again

    DCBB5988-29E4-470D-824E-49228F1C03CD.thumb.png.d7e0e31ab0b2851cd0d5b73d7d518fa3.png

    Yep 

    1C7A8712-1A77-42C7-AD8B-2D8DCE6FEA0C.thumb.png.47708e6cd0b7a739b358120a31bdd4b7.png

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

    GFS(P) looks to be headed for a split again

    DCBB5988-29E4-470D-824E-49228F1C03CD.thumb.png.d7e0e31ab0b2851cd0d5b73d7d518fa3.png

    Yer mate and that’s at T288 now , so that’s more good news ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

    Looking at the 18z I don't think it would take much to bring the high pressure further north at T192.

    If this happens we could end up with a very cold Easterly. 

    Fairly weak low pressure in the Atlantic too 

    Fingers crossed for some powdery snow from the East.

    Ps easterly snow is no good for making snowballs anyone noticed that as a child .

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    48 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    I'm looking at that AO signature and thinking, once the SSW effects break that up, somewhere in the mid latitudes is going to experience a historic winter cold event during January...

    will it be Europe or North America?...or east asia/siberia? which would be no fun  for anyone

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    will it be Europe or North America?...or east asia/siberia? which would be no fun  for anyone

    It would be fun for wherever kops it??

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  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    It would be fun for wherever kops it??

    its always brutal cold in Siberia..so no one would notice plus no one on this forum lives there?

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  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    It would be fun for wherever kops it??

    Least we're in the hat, subtle hints on para that the PV is splitting into FI..

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Least we're in the hat, subtle hints on para that the PV is splitting into FI..

    Best split yet, i think, interitus will put me right if not.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    Best split yet, i think, interitus will put me right if not.

    gfsnh-10-360.png?18

    Could do with that Canadian segment staying out of the way of any ridging in the north Atlantic, i'd say a Greeny high is the favoured route if the split looks like that..

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    gfsnh-10-360.png?18

    Could do with that Canadian segment staying out of the way of any ridging in the north Atlantic, i'd say a Greeny high is the favoured route if the split looks like that..

    You still want a small amount of forcing so as to not end up with a west based -nao, i think thats what the met office;s caveat of uncertainty is based on, plus you want an iceland scandi high eventually to get the absolutely insane cold our way,

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  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    You still want a small amount of forcing so as to not end up with a west based -nao, i think thats what the met office;s caveat of uncertainty is based on, plus you want an iceland scandi high eventually to get the absolutely insane cold our way,

    Yes good point wrt the canadian segment, looks excellent , i would hope GFS op will smell the coffee in the next few days..

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    You still want a small amount of forcing so as to not end up with a west based -nao, i think thats what the met office;s caveat of uncertainty is based on, plus you want an iceland scandi high eventually to get the absolutely insane cold our way,

    Absolutely. Keeping a piece of the vortex over on the Canadian side is imperative as to avoid a west based NAO. FV3 looks just about perfect in my eyes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

    And gradually we'll see the cold weather moved to mid January, then early February, then march and then winter will be over. 

    At least we had a bit of snow up here in Scotland last Saturday, better than nothing. Now time for the HP, better than rain and wind. Unfortunately in the long term it does seem like the Atlantic could return though, bringing a spell of mild and wet weather at the beginning of January with the AO gradually turning positive. 

    I really hope I'm wrong

    Edited by edinburgh_1992
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  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Week 6 of the EC weeklies, -NAO in for the long haul? 

     

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    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
    • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
    • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
    • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)
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