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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Op is close to an SPV split over Eurasia in the final frame. Catching a flight early doors so off now but a weirdly positive day given the dire NWP. All to play for

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3 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Op is close to an SPV split over Eurasia in the final frame. Catching a flight early doors so off now but a weirdly positive day given the dire NWP. All to play for

hope your not going from Gatwick..

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Just now, More Snow said:

hope your not going from Gatwick..

Stansted thankfully, probably still delayed tho! 

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I'm using weather online to view the model output GFS but in the last 24 hrs it's been painfully slow. 

only reached T168 at 11:30pm 

Any tips or advice or links.

I would say where onto a spell of winteryness T240 .

Thanks sp

 

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18z certainly not the best of runs, but its just about a mild outlier as we go into the new year, some very cold member in there so lots to look forward to.

 

London and Manchester Ensembles:

graphe_ens3.gif

graphe_ens3-1.gif

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Consider this coffee smelt. 

 

A14A1094-6E91-4C29-8156-D43E97F56F31.gif

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9 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

I'm using weather online to view the model output GFS but in the last 24 hrs it's been painfully slow. 

only reached T168 at 11:30pm 

Any tips or advice or links.

I would say where onto a spell of winteryness T240 .

Thanks sp

 

Meteociel!!!!!  

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=10&mode=1&carte=1

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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5 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Consider this coffee smelt. 

 

A14A1094-6E91-4C29-8156-D43E97F56F31.gif

Yes some cold members starting to appear towards the back end now...right when we'd be expecting some of the good stuff to start appearing.

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GFS(P) looks to be headed for a split again

DCBB5988-29E4-470D-824E-49228F1C03CD.thumb.png.d7e0e31ab0b2851cd0d5b73d7d518fa3.png

Yep 

1C7A8712-1A77-42C7-AD8B-2D8DCE6FEA0C.thumb.png.47708e6cd0b7a739b358120a31bdd4b7.png

Edited by karlos1983

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

GFS(P) looks to be headed for a split again

DCBB5988-29E4-470D-824E-49228F1C03CD.thumb.png.d7e0e31ab0b2851cd0d5b73d7d518fa3.png

Yer mate and that’s at T288 now , so that’s more good news 👌

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Looking at the 18z I don't think it would take much to bring the high pressure further north at T192.

If this happens we could end up with a very cold Easterly. 

Fairly weak low pressure in the Atlantic too 

Fingers crossed for some powdery snow from the East.

Ps easterly snow is no good for making snowballs anyone noticed that as a child .

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

GFS(P) looks to be headed for a split again

DCBB5988-29E4-470D-824E-49228F1C03CD.thumb.png.d7e0e31ab0b2851cd0d5b73d7d518fa3.png

And it does 🙂

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48 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm looking at that AO signature and thinking, once the SSW effects break that up, somewhere in the mid latitudes is going to experience a historic winter cold event during January...

will it be Europe or North America?...or east asia/siberia? which would be no fun  for anyone

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1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

will it be Europe or North America?...or east asia/siberia? which would be no fun  for anyone

It would be fun for wherever kops it??

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

It would be fun for wherever kops it??

its always brutal cold in Siberia..so no one would notice plus no one on this forum lives there?

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It would be fun for wherever kops it??

Least we're in the hat, subtle hints on para that the PV is splitting into FI..

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14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Least we're in the hat, subtle hints on para that the PV is splitting into FI..

Best split yet, i think, interitus will put me right if not.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Best split yet, i think, interitus will put me right if not.

gfsnh-10-360.png?18

Could do with that Canadian segment staying out of the way of any ridging in the north Atlantic, i'd say a Greeny high is the favoured route if the split looks like that..

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

gfsnh-10-360.png?18

Could do with that Canadian segment staying out of the way of any ridging in the north Atlantic, i'd say a Greeny high is the favoured route if the split looks like that..

You still want a small amount of forcing so as to not end up with a west based -nao, i think thats what the met office;s caveat of uncertainty is based on, plus you want an iceland scandi high eventually to get the absolutely insane cold our way,

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You still want a small amount of forcing so as to not end up with a west based -nao, i think thats what the met office;s caveat of uncertainty is based on, plus you want an iceland scandi high eventually to get the absolutely insane cold our way,

Yes good point wrt the canadian segment, looks excellent , i would hope GFS op will smell the coffee in the next few days..

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You still want a small amount of forcing so as to not end up with a west based -nao, i think thats what the met office;s caveat of uncertainty is based on, plus you want an iceland scandi high eventually to get the absolutely insane cold our way,

Absolutely. Keeping a piece of the vortex over on the Canadian side is imperative as to avoid a west based NAO. FV3 looks just about perfect in my eyes.

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And gradually we'll see the cold weather moved to mid January, then early February, then march and then winter will be over. 

At least we had a bit of snow up here in Scotland last Saturday, better than nothing. Now time for the HP, better than rain and wind. Unfortunately in the long term it does seem like the Atlantic could return though, bringing a spell of mild and wet weather at the beginning of January with the AO gradually turning positive. 

I really hope I'm wrong

Edited by edinburgh_1992

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