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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Just now, swfc said:

Can you elaborate nw

More members having the high further north 🙂

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Looks to be a noticeable difference between UKMO /EC at only 72 hours?

UKMO has energy into the UK, EC much further west..

 

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i reckon member 2 is a QTR ….. not sure any of the others display the signature …. plenty more latitude on the blocks around the NH than seen recently

and the hemispheric pattern late on is headed in the right direction ……….

Edited by bluearmy

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks to be a noticeable difference between UKMO /EC at only 72 hours?

UKMO has energy into the UK, EC much further west..

 

They look identical at +96

ECH1-96.GIF?20-0Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Edited by karlos1983

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18 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

That’ll be different by the time the next run is out 

Yes maybe so, but its relatively mild for much of the winter in the UK on average, so we can have a little dig from time to time when a decent chart turns up for us coldies.

Mildies do have their way most of the time.😁

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

They look identical at +96

ECH1-96.GIF?20-0Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

They are very similar Karlos - i think EC is slightly further west with the high-(better), but probably not enough to alter much.

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

They look identical at +96

ECH1-96.GIF?20-0Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

I would say the UKMO has actually played a little catch up to the ECM, Was a much more shallower LP yesterday on the UKMO.

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Unusual to see the +16c 850 iso that far north this time of year (over southern Spain)

 

ECM0-96.GIF?20-0

 

Possible localised seasonal records there? 

Edited by The Eagle

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Well EC is slightly further west than UKMO, that was my opinion as early as 72..Looking at the 850s alone i would expect EC to be quite cold Christmas Eve..

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Interesting from the EC, going for a Batman look, splitting the cold into 3 somewhat.

ECH0-168.png

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Was the GFS 12z the first time the GFS op has split the strat? If this trend continues on the Op, the GFS Op has been way behind the GFS Para and ECM in detecting that signal. This is very interesting academically... 

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Ecm 12z..likely going gfs route...latter frames..a march for scandi !!..

And spliting -separation of high cell...into point greenland..?!.

ECH1-168.gif

Edited by tight isobar

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can ec op keep the polar vortex lobes apart day 8 ????

answer - not really …….

Edited by bluearmy

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+12 uppers into the heart of the US.....

ECH0-192.png

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Just now, Stuie W said:

+12 uppers into the heart of the US.....

ECH0-192.png

Also -12 uppers into the heart of the US.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Also -12 uppers into the heart of the US.

East west split, not in the usual balance...

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I'm binning this ECM because it doesn't show what I want 😜 

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1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

I'm binning this ECM because it doesn't show what I want 😜 

On my black and white monitor it looks fantastic.

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this run is growing a big arctic high the other side of the vortex ……. noticed that on any other charts recently ????????

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14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

can ec op keep the polar vortex lobes apart day 8 ????

answer - not really …….

Having a good go at day 10, Blue.

ECH0-216.png

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The ECM is flirting with the idea of colder conditions into Europe in its latter stages again. But the way its been flip flopping lately I'm treating it as pure entertainment. 

ECE1-216 (1).gif

ECE0-216.gif

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

this run is growing a big arctic high the other side of the vortex ……. noticed that on any other charts recently ????????

Just look at the total length of, do I say block.

ECH1-216.png

ECH1-216.png

Edited by Stuie W

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