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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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ICON is first out of the Blocks and keeps the theme from the 06z going 

iconnh-0-144.png?20-12

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17 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ICON is first out of the Blocks and keeps the theme from the 06z going 

iconnh-0-144.png?20-12

Yes, quite frankly I'm viewing these charts with increasing annoyance. We see high pressure trying to migrate north towards Iceland but the jet will simply not dig south, the Iberian slug remains omnipotent..Why can't we ever get Scandi high that can push back the Atlantic with such vigorous defiance?!😫

iconeu-0-90.png

iconeu-0-108.png

iconeu-0-126.png

iconeu-0-150.png

Edited by snowray

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UW144-21.GIF?20-16

 

ugh, not much to cling to with the UKMO again. 

Edited by The Eagle

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6 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

UW144-21.GIF?20-16

 

ugh, not much to cling to with the UKMO again. 

Yup horrible chart at 144 hours!!best we can get out over the next 2 week is a frost lol!!madness!!better than rain i suppose!!

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7 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

UW144-21.GIF?20-16

 

ugh, not much to cling to with the UKMO again. 

It's almost like High pressure to our south is in charge and has been for a while (From a model output POV) 

gfs-0-108.png?12

the 12Z GFs is showing an every greater push of heights into Spain.

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No point worrying bout UKMO it’s only day 6 and we no there’s not gonna be anything wintry next week . It’s what happens in the 10 + day range , that’s where the interest is . 

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Surely just surely there has to be some seriously cold nights under that high across england and wales!!🤔

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6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

No point worrying bout UKMO it’s only day 6 and we no there’s not gonna be anything wintry next week . It’s what happens in the 10 + day range , that’s where the interest is . 

I agree I don’t think we’re going to see any changes yet definitely not at day 6.🙂

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5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It's almost like High pressure to our south is in charge and has been for a while (From a model output POV) 

gfs-0-108.png?12

the 12Z GFs is showing an every greater push of heights into Spain.

Temps will likely get well into the 20s in parts of Spain, and they regularly get more snow than us. I know where I'm going to move to when I retire....:oldlaugh:

75-580SP.gif

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GFS 12Z looks an improvement on 6z at 210- HP further north than 6z at same timeframe..

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Much better run this, lovely sharp ridge up towards Greenland with good WAA, this could do some damage to the strat in itself but also have a good trop lead pattern in itself.

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That’s it come on . 

 

19667A94-7807-47EB-B214-2E8C8FDF7D8D.png

Edited by ICE COLD

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Much better run this, lovely sharp ridge up towards Greenland with good WAA, this could do some damage to the strat in itself but also have a good trop lead pattern in itself.

PV displaced from the pole at that point with temps on the rise over the pole

image.thumb.png.70895527fb301da44e25ba2268a3e97c.png

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

PV displaced from the pole at that point with temps on the rise over the pole

image.thumb.png.70895527fb301da44e25ba2268a3e97c.png

Yes, this is going to be a decent split - make no mistake.

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And it might even be a trop lead stonking Easterly as well to boot.

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As reported yesterday - this location for the ridge would be an ideal location for a QTR post SSW

4D2D7E04-2D95-4AC0-AE37-C9C675730D5F.thumb.png.53312e449e97faa04e0bc5bbe4bbe47d.png

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36 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Spain will turn into desert at this rate...

Spanish Meto have got their Winter LRF spot on so far.

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similar to the para 6z  scandi building

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