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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    17 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    ICON is first out of the Blocks and keeps the theme from the 06z going 

    iconnh-0-144.png?20-12

    Yes, quite frankly I'm viewing these charts with increasing annoyance. We see high pressure trying to migrate north towards Iceland but the jet will simply not dig south, the Iberian slug remains omnipotent..Why can't we ever get Scandi high that can push back the Atlantic with such vigorous defiance?!?

    iconeu-0-90.png

    iconeu-0-108.png

    iconeu-0-126.png

    iconeu-0-150.png

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    Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

    After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

    Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    6 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    UW144-21.GIF?20-16

     

    ugh, not much to cling to with the UKMO again. 

    Yup horrible chart at 144 hours!!best we can get out over the next 2 week is a frost lol!!madness!!better than rain i suppose!!

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    7 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    UW144-21.GIF?20-16

     

    ugh, not much to cling to with the UKMO again. 

    It's almost like High pressure to our south is in charge and has been for a while (From a model output POV) 

    gfs-0-108.png?12

    the 12Z GFs is showing an every greater push of heights into Spain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    No point worrying bout UKMO it’s only day 6 and we no there’s not gonna be anything wintry next week . It’s what happens in the 10 + day range , that’s where the interest is . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    No point worrying bout UKMO it’s only day 6 and we no there’s not gonna be anything wintry next week . It’s what happens in the 10 + day range , that’s where the interest is . 

    I agree I don’t think we’re going to see any changes yet definitely not at day 6.?

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    It's almost like High pressure to our south is in charge and has been for a while (From a model output POV) 

    gfs-0-108.png?12

    the 12Z GFs is showing an every greater push of heights into Spain.

    Temps will likely get well into the 20s in parts of Spain, and they regularly get more snow than us. I know where I'm going to move to when I retire....:oldlaugh:

    75-580SP.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    GFS 12Z looks an improvement on 6z at 210- HP further north than 6z at same timeframe..

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Much better run this, lovely sharp ridge up towards Greenland with good WAA, this could do some damage to the strat in itself but also have a good trop lead pattern in itself.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Much better run this, lovely sharp ridge up towards Greenland with good WAA, this could do some damage to the strat in itself but also have a good trop lead pattern in itself.

    PV displaced from the pole at that point with temps on the rise over the pole

    image.thumb.png.70895527fb301da44e25ba2268a3e97c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    PV displaced from the pole at that point with temps on the rise over the pole

    image.thumb.png.70895527fb301da44e25ba2268a3e97c.png

    Yes, this is going to be a decent split - make no mistake.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    And it might even be a trop lead stonking Easterly as well to boot.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    As reported yesterday - this location for the ridge would be an ideal location for a QTR post SSW

    4D2D7E04-2D95-4AC0-AE37-C9C675730D5F.thumb.png.53312e449e97faa04e0bc5bbe4bbe47d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    36 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

    Spain will turn into desert at this rate...

    Spanish Meto have got their Winter LRF spot on so far.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    similar to the para 6z  scandi building

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    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
    • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
    • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
    • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)
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