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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Is that todays  Karlos?

weirdly uploaded the wrong image, I've changed it now. 

no that's yesterday's, but it's the latest available (That i can find) 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Just now, karlos1983 said:

weirdly uploaded the wrong image, I've changed it now. 

no that's yesterday's, but it's the latest available 

Its just some experts pointing out that todays run are showing a split    unless im reading it wrong. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Its just some experts pointing out that todays run are showing a split    unless im reading it wrong. 

Could well be mate, I'm not sure. Guess it's not helpful if we can't get access to the latest charts, can cause confusion if we aren't taking apples for apples.

TBH the only relevance of the will it won't it split is the QTR.... displaced PV is still going to cause havoc in the Trop for a lengthy period of time, just not as quickly.. or at least that's my understanding.

 

 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
14 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Then your opinion disagrees with a few experts.  Anyway  still much to be resolved 

is there any info if the split has happened and when will a ssw be confirmed ? Tia

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
19 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Then your opinion disagrees with a few experts.  Anyway  still much to be resolved 

Not an opinion ......

97CC66B0-D485-4D39-9AB9-298C2E5902D2.thumb.jpeg.d9d00790288fedb8634982be2a0abc38.jpeg

FWIW, my opinion is that the run would have created a proper split by day 12 bit I’ve seen eps ens mean charts showing something akin to that chart I posted by day 15 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Some of the charts at the moment are incredible. The models will soon start latching on, just have a bit of patience.

You don't get this sort of disturbance and a default zonal profile to follow on for weeks on end.

QTR or later, something will give. Let not so much hope that we are lucky, more hope that we are not unlucky!

ecmwfzm_u_f240.thumb.gif.31e9ecae88c5720f3d8032820c743ab7.giffluxes.thumb.gif.d14e9e5fe676cf66feb5bbc0d4083af0.giftemps.thumb.gif.25118bdff38da48692087f00fcefba89.gif

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, swfc said:

is there any info if the split has happened and when will a ssw be confirmed ? Tia

a SSW is going to happen! That is pretty much nailed on! 

Here's D6 at 10hpa

image.thumb.png.ef491c6a08eba9228eed07a2aa6c60ab.png

The Split or not to split is unresolved.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not an opinion ......

97CC66B0-D485-4D39-9AB9-298C2E5902D2.thumb.jpeg.d9d00790288fedb8634982be2a0abc38.jpeg

FWIW, my opinion is that the run would have created a proper split by day 12 bit I’ve seen eps ens mean charts showing something akin to that chart I posted by day 15 

So this bloke is talking Tutt then  i shall place him on block 

From what I can see this morning the ECMWF EPS mean has a full split at 10hPa by hour 228. Something to consider

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 I am getting a serious case of deja vu / groundhog day in here with regards to those negative / worrying / winters over type posts that are about as stubborn as the PV!

2032154-Yogi-Berra-Quote-It-s-like-deja-vu-all-over-again.thumb.jpg.6841a871f9a03cd1d6249b0696f0189e.jpg  

perhaps all this will end up in a blizzard just like in the film 

Fear not us coldies are prepared to deflect all those negative / winters over type posts

rbs-police_1376838i.thumb.jpg.a8d267563bc09b1f286aa6adb6394c75.jpg

 

Nothing has changed from my POV and we are not even at the peak of the initial strat displacement warming, the only question is if we get the split but lets wait and see what happens.

Take anything up until the 2nd week of January as a bonus and enjoy Christmas and New Year :drinks::santa-emoji:

I am not too knowledgeable when it comes to the MJO but perhaps it is worth factoring this in and this could be why there are some runs looking more low pressure dominated 

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.thumb.gif.01f7c2e4ad86355bd8a67f04cb785e0b.gifALL_emean_phase_full.thumb.gif.933d35828bf606c0d5253a5a0e326fbf.gif  from what I am reading on those charts it looks like we are heading into phase 5 

phase 5 linked to el nino in December nino_5_dic_mid.thumb.png.2038d658fc70fe2fb0ca75775ad85114.png  DecENMJOphase5all500mb.thumb.gif.112f1d4c89c65f8182f9611e9f56b17f.gif   think I seen some posts saying there is a slight lag at the moment and factor in the goings on in the strat this could be causing some confusion / disagreement among the models.

39 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

If only we could get a HP over Scandi, like we had last week...BOOM:cold:

Netweather GFS Image

like these?  

gensnh-5-1-384.thumb.png.06a8d371a7cc9d4759e501a118f2ad3d.png1930344676_gensnh-5-5-384(1).thumb.png.86d1abdb1b8ebfaa58f7273f7e05729e.pnggensnh-6-5-384.thumb.png.3a9f9812c18548a62fb7e9bfca545d67.png  

tempresult_iwb6.thumb.gif.5b733af3011cc742b1b5cf79c68275c3.gif

1658854338_gensnh-13-5-384(1).thumb.png.ddefba1102417f4b03095ac6dbea123b.pnggens-13-0-348.thumb.png.13deb4ac963f67b0513c9ebe6f8cfd5f.pnggens-13-0-360.thumb.png.80fd2b21f7a38c6003cf5d6cfe00ed23.png  

tempresult_hjo8.thumb.gif.1f7c2e4ff0094f3ba473c9c0911846d6.gif

CMA still sticking to its guns 

cmanh-10-216.thumb.png.2131ad6e15ba252413d3d21872e62442.png

I like the way the cfs 9 month is going for the middle of Jan 

tempresult_uxs4.thumb.gif.4738a2b9d92c873ef1f1b9a2a8945c64.gif

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Also have a question, but what is the QTR and what does it stand for?

Google not being much help. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, DiagonalRedLine said:

Also have a question, but what is the QTR and what does it stand for?

Google not being much help. 

Quick Trop Response

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Quick Trop Response

Ah, cheers.  

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
26 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Also have a question, but what is the QTR and what does it stand for?

Google not being much help. 

Glad I'm nae the only one, DRL!!!

I do agree with Frosty & Co., in that we'll all be handsomely rewarded, by mid-January!:santa-emoji:

 

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Given the below, I would suggest we should start to see more and more GEFS members coming on board in far FI on the runs soon...

image.thumb.png.f855d67288184a7ef9f3477b35f39029.png

Probably could do with the core of the heights further North, but it would be a decent start.

Edited by mountain shadow
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
42 minutes ago, weirpig said:

So this bloke is talking Tutt then  i shall place him on block 

From what I can see this morning the ECMWF EPS mean has a full split at 10hPa by hour 228. Something to consider

No - he is referencing the eps mean - my chart is the ec op (as are the Berlin ones also posted )

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

06Z in the short(ish) timespan T+84 (I've given up on anything less than this - and as for FI.....)

N Yorkshire 20% chance of sleet.

uksnowrisk.thumb.png.d5747eb1735ae74ef59c5a1081d7e26c.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No - he is referencing the eps mean - my chart is the ec op (as are the Berlin ones also posted )

Yes  sorry my wording    we are both right then    jazz hands. ( in case loud clapping effects my work mates)  wish i hadnt called him a charlatan now. 

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Given the below, I would suggest we should start to see more and more GEFS members coming on board in far FI on the runs soon...

image.thumb.png.f855d67288184a7ef9f3477b35f39029.png

Certainly an interesting chart..

GEFS.thumb.png.f7eaed0f80775630d492634061bdcd20.png

If I was being picky I'd want it a little further North, but it's a very good start. Extended EPS similar though further South than the GEFS.

EPS.thumb.png.25e532276947f0c59e2aeb18391e3849.png

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
2 minutes ago, .jay said:

I fear that STR will take off on here as we get deep into January...

Would that be Slow Trop Response? 

And if it is, hopefully not the sort of scenario that will end up happening. A quick one would seem more desirable.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Given the below, I would suggest we should start to see more and more GEFS members coming on board in far FI on the runs soon...

image.thumb.png.f855d67288184a7ef9f3477b35f39029.png

Probably could do with the core of the heights further North, but it would be a decent start.

EPS rather different no +ve Scandi heights need to look to w/nw? Goes along with GP’s musings.

A85C56E6-9C1B-4CC9-AD85-423C2D18EBC2.thumb.png.e8d176a15764e6eba20ef8fab9f69299.png > D53E168D-4149-487C-B16D-0767055EC53C.thumb.png.bfa6bbf5b5db726b2391c537078f5c73.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

-NAO to precede a -AO? 

nao.sprd2.gifao.sprd2.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Any ideas why Michael Ventrice has mentioned 2009-10 in this tweet ?

 

vp_anom_30.0N-10N.thumb.gif.bd135385b9ea0a24b80b7fb018f33967.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, high pressure looks the form as we head into early january so at least there is potential for winter hazards of frost / fog depending on cloud-cover / orientation of the high etc..etc..

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

ICON is first out of the Blocks and keeps the theme from the 06z going 

iconnh-0-144.png?20-12

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