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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Chalk (06z)

gfsnh-0-300.png?6

Cheese (00z)

gfsnh-0-312.png?0

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border

Perb 13 just shows how quickly the weather can change from this:

gens-13-1-216.png

to this in just a couple of days:

gens-13-1-264.png

setting us up for the cold outbreak we are hunting:

gens-13-0-348.pnggens-13-1-324.png  ❄️⛄❄️

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The GFS FV3 gives us much better prospects for Xmas Day itself...but will the tentative hints at a NNW-SSE ridge get blown away before New Year?

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
26 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Well the Para  is better  Cold in Europe much further west  cold a frosty nights as we approach the new year   quite a difference in the profile at such a range. 

Yes, it certainly is!!!

gfsnh-10-360_dbr2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Well a much better way of ending the 6z   Para shows a willingness to build hights  much more easier and earlier  than the GFS   It  shows heights building towards Scandi   and the Strat profile is much better.   we have a few hours to kill before  Doom sets in again 

gfsnh-10-360.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
22 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Chalk (06z)

gfsnh-0-300.png?6

Cheese (00z)

gfsnh-0-312.png?0

I'll take the chalk please as I've never been a fan of the Christmas Cheese board anyway!!!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The gfsp really not a surprise given the gefs - just a more amplified suite in the Atlantic/euro sector  ..... will it become the way forward for the new year period ?? 

Nothing in that run is a consequence of upcoming events in the strat .......

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Split on the Para two  vorticies 

 

gfsnh-10-384.thumb.png.7aede29ad9778f5acfe2f7f96600e028.png

What better way to improve one's sense of well-being, eh? I mean, it's the meaning of life: the lacky band that goes 'ping'!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
4 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Par for the course at T+300 on a run-by-run basis.

Well if you watched the run, you'll have seen the changes started well in advance of +300.......

But of course run to run things will differ, perhaps not to that extent is the point i was making..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Split on the Para two  vorticies 

 

gfsnh-10-384.thumb.png.7aede29ad9778f5acfe2f7f96600e028.png

Yes, distance between them is key.

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Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
3 hours ago, shaky said:

Its just horrendous!!!theres nothing else to say really!!last few evening we have had slightly better output but then for some reason come morning our hopes get dashed again!!the 00zs seem less amplified a lot recently!!right now i would take a bloody night of frost thats how bad things look at the moment!!

Agreed. I still have summer bedding plants flowering in my garden....

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
43 minutes ago, booferking said:

Something like this..

gens-12-1-138.png

gens-0-1-138.png

gens-6-1-138.png

gens-14-1-138.png

gens-20-1-138.png

gens-18-1-138.png

Indeed S.....and that is Not too many miles East of what I’m after.  Gosh that’s much closer....let’s see if we get the further tweaks and movement with ridge further west and the LPs over Sweden to be over west coast of Norway....then we have our northerly.

 

BFTP

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, weirpig said:

Although the para is showing a split at the end of the run  its still at odds with the ecm mean  which i believe has a full split at 228h   somethings got to give

I know what my monies on.......EC

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

If only we could get a HP over Scandi, like we had last week...BOOM:cold:

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Patience grasshoppers, although the Gfs 6z operational is vile, I still think January will eventually deliver the potential that coldies are craving!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
30 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Although the para is showing a split at the end of the run  its still at odds with the ecm mean  which i believe has a full split at 228h   somethings got to give

It likely doesn’t, could be really high up but isn’t at 10hpa 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It likely doesn’t, could be really high up but isn’t at 10hpa 

Then your opinion disagrees with a few experts.  Anyway  still much to be resolved 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Let's make no bones about it, the current model output is crud for coldies with temps generally around average but there remains a signal that January could eventually bring our first major wintry outbreak and that is what's keeping me going on here through this cr*p period!:santa-emoji:..ps..even abysmal output doesn't look so bad after a drink or 3!:drunk:

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

here's the 10hpa for clarity

ecmwf10f240.thumb.gif.dc3c4ced66aecd11a0cbd9a5cc8e3b5c.gif

close but no cigar?

Edited by karlos1983
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