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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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lets have some more WAA into the pole 

gfsnh-0-300.png?6

Cracking Para

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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Keep an eye on the PARAs FI 👌

If I had to make a punt on first few days of jan then the evolution of the gfsp fi would be in the ball park - could take another amplification to get there compared to this run ...........

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Ok....

The SSW is due to be in full swing around Xmas eve. The approximate time-lag for the effects to be seen in the troposphere is 2 weeks.

That theoretically takes us up to the 7th January before we see a response.

The current range of the GFS extends to the 4th January.

Therefore, (in theory) we shouldn't be seeing any response in the models for another 3 days.

Now consider the wording of the Met Office forecast-

"Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds."

No problem there as far as I can see.

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GFS(P) Splits the sack PV 

gfsnh-10-360.png?6

Edited by karlos1983

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5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Nice looking Para

gfsnh-0-300.png

With due respect to the Para, it was the most optimistic with respect to the recent non-easterly and was churned out every time the GFS op said no! I am yet to be convinced that it can be reliably followed ATM in these setups.

Looking at the verification stats it is as good or better than the GFS up to about D6, but at D10 it falls behind (as much as the GFS is behind the ECM):

cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.b6687e93f07763156dda8db7599c4dfc.png

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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

With due respect to the Para, it was the most optimistic with respect to the recent non-easterly and was churned out every time the GFS op said no! I am yet to be convinced that it can be reliably followed ATM in these setups.

Looking at the verification stats it is as good or better than the GFS up to about D6, but at D10 it falls behind (as much as the GFS is behind the ECM😞

cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.b6687e93f07763156dda8db7599c4dfc.png

This time GFS is on its own in refusing to get a warming started on our side of the North pole. GFs para and ECM get there.

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4 minutes ago, IDO said:

With due respect to the Para, it was the most optimistic with respect to the recent non-easterly and was churned out every time the GFS op said no! I am yet to be convinced that it can be reliably followed ATM in these setups.

Looking at the verification stats it is as good or better than the GFS up to about D6, but at D10 it falls behind (as much as the GFS is behind the ECM😞

cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.b6687e93f07763156dda8db7599c4dfc.png

Good Job  the chart i shown is at Day 13 then and not day 10   otherwise i would be all of a worry 

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13 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

I read that as below average probability signal days 12-42 post warming date. So earl/mid Jan through early Feb ?

Yes - that’s right Stewart - ending 42 days (not beginning!)

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1 hour ago, Singularity said:

I have a very strong impression that the models are in posession of the payload but fumbling with the trigger.

The fast cycling of the GWO may be causing this as the models tend to make too much of the westerly kick in the N Atlantic during the declining AAM phase - you can really see this in GFS’ persistent behaviour at the 7-10 day range.

 

Its not the only major issue with the modelling though; most runs have a suspicious persistence of positive AO when you’d at least expect a negative trend and perhaps even a sudden flip as the immediate component of SSW response takes effect.

Ive rarely been less impressed with the ability of NWP modelling.

Good post and saves me from 1 this morning...

I'd go with that all 100%^^^

Edited by tight isobar

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22 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Ok....

The SSW is due to be in full swing around Xmas eve. The approximate time-lag for the effects to be seen in the troposphere is 2 weeks.

That theoretically takes us up to the 7th January before we see a response.

The current range of the GFS extends to the 4th January.

Therefore, (in theory) we shouldn't be seeing any response in the models for another 3 days.

Now consider the wording of the Met Office forecast-

"Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds."

No problem there as far as I can see.

.......In other words In January it's possibly going to get a little bit colder?

 

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1 hour ago, steveinsussex said:

Crazy. We could be in for one of the most interesting spells of ‘model watching’ in years....

....keep me informed then bud.

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2 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

 

64C5AD23-1A62-48C3-A1B8-9D328D56D169.png

 

6 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

They say "Don't shoot the messenger"

But on this occasion....

Metogate incoming!!!!!!!!!!

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

Interpret the MO forecast as a downgrade if you like...perhaps they just don'y necessarily see a quick response at the surface, or they have more than one cluster on timings... 

No downgrade on opportunities from what I'm seeing

gfsnh-10-384.png?6

The split PV lobes aren't even chaffing. 😜

If that was consistently being repeated on all runs and it was getting nearer, thus seeing a wider split in FI as the pattern evolves, i would agree with you and i would not give a fig about MO forecasts.

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Can we please discuss the Meto extended in the correct thread.

Thanks.

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sometimes  only sometimes im lost for words  are we really analysing a 30 da........................................   oh its happened again.     Think its time to take a break  its getting rather strange again on here. 

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At T+264, the Para highlights the uncertainty viz the destination of our almost resident HP; it'll also be shape-sensitive methinks?

Netweather GFS Image

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No its not sarcastic, its probably on the pessimistic side as it isn't like they are not still seeing some sort of chance of some level of cold with snow potential, but it is a downgrade.

Let's be honest since late October/early November the outlooks from them have been relatively poor with little confidence, the recent updates re: cold and easterly winds were about bullish as they get so I found that a bit surprising to be honest even with the strat developments...plenty of time maybe for them to 'firm' up on things as we head into the New Year...

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6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

sometimes  only sometimes im lost for words  are we really analysing a 30 da........................................   oh its happened again.     Think its time to take a break  its getting rather strange again on here. 

absolutely spot on...

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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If that was consistently being repeated on all runs and it was getting nearer, thus seeing a wider split in FI as the pattern evolves, i would agree with you and i would not give a fig about MO forecasts.

Well if we were seeing issues across the board, then I could understand your pessimism...... but we aren't and I still do not read that as a Downgrade. Just low confidence on timing. We are in the beneficial position of it being December 19th looking at a major warming event towards the end of the year, unlike the last few winters when we have been waiting for February and March when a Warming event has been on the table..

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15 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Interpret the MO forecast as a downgrade if you like...perhaps they just don'y necessarily see a quick response at the surface,

gfsnh-10-384.png?6

The split PV lobes aren't even chaffing. 😜

Or, the response to this at the surface does not bring Easterly winds.

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5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well if we were seeing issues across the board, then I could understand your pessimism...... but we aren't and I still do not read that as a Downgrade. Just low confidence on timing. We are in the beneficial position of it being December 19th looking at a major warming event towards the end of the year, unlike the last few winters when we have been waiting for February and March when a Warming event has been on the table..

And, right at the very death, the Para pulls a retrogressive rabbit out of its hat! But is it a white one?🐰

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by Ed Stone

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