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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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53 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes don’t know why people are in downer mode , nothing is expected until early Jan .

Perhaps nothing is expected NOW until early January and perhaps even until mid January, but don't forget we've already had two failed Easterly attempts during November and December with numerous teases from the model outputs for decent cold weather.

And of course there is no guarantee the impending SSW will even deliver.

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ECM gives the UK a settled and what I suspect would be a fairly chilly boxing day with a frost to start

ecm2.2018122600_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.bcf9e95037006e1dcd70868c846c64d5.png

UKMO extended has other ideas and turns winds southwesterly with rain spreading in from the west

ukm2.2018122600_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.647777cc772743ddcb6fc04891da0ff6.png

 

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

 but don't forget we've already had two failed Easterly attempts during November and December with numerous teases from the model outputs for decent cold 

Hopefully third time lucky but like you say, no guarantees.

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Good morning all 😊

Hope you all are ok, I know by reading some of the posts today frustration is taking a upper hand again. 

Well I thought I would share a bit of  a glimmer of hope. I often read up the weather in the Times newspaper and on here there is a column where a little buzz article is written on a daily basis. Now back at the beginning of December thoughts were written about the weather for the month ahead which has up to now tied in very well with what we have had basically unsettled and windy with rain and a few drier interludes but no severe cold.

i have read the article in today's edition (and for those who want to refer to it, you will find it in the Times weather page) .... today's buzz was all about this SSW and there is a stark warning with high confidence that our winter is about to start in the new year. I do trust this article as extracts are taken from the met office. It goes on to say that we are likely to see Easterly winds with Beast from the East and severe cold. The approx timing of this has been set to mid Jan onwards.

So there we go people just to put a glimmer of hope as this is what we live on on here hope. On the other hand it does say that it could miss the UK but this is a unlikely scenario as thunderstorm systems in the med are likely to move to the east Pacific at this timeframe hence enhancing the Easterly. 

But peeps let's keep a cool about this and patience it could all still go horribly wrong as no human on earth can control our weather, I don't think we will see anyghing showing on the models untill late December. 

Out wait for our winterland continues

Santa you know what our hearts want ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

Wishing you all a happy Wednesday 

kind regards 😊😊😊😊

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So many negitive comments this morning even saying the ssw might not deliver! How about flipping the coin the other way for a change and say the ssw will bring copious amounts of snow! Goes both ways! We are 12 days away from January! Nothing is expected till January so pointless having such negitive comments this far out! All signs pointing to something special I have a good feeling!

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM gives the UK a settled and what I suspect would be a fairly chilly boxing day with a frost to start

ecm2.2018122600_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.bcf9e95037006e1dcd70868c846c64d5.png

UKMO extended has other ideas and turns winds southwesterly with rain spreading in from the west

ukm2.2018122600_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.647777cc772743ddcb6fc04891da0ff6.png

 

Thanks for posting these Gav 🙂

EC /UKMO literally chalk and cheese, UKMO no thanks, EC yes please..

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I can give one guarantee.... this SSW increases the UK chances of significant cold spell by around 65%! 

By the way, it’s not happened yet & the detail of the Warming is yet to be nailed down, so pondering what happens & when at the surface would be a guess at best right now!  Got our ticket 👌❄️

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A benign boring anticyclonic christmas / new year from the 00z models..not a sniff of anything wintry..hope things change but currently no sign of any wintry narnia weather into the new year!💩

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I do think that we need to remain sceptical about the possible effects of any SSW even if it should happen.

Despite what the strat models are indicating, it doesn't mean the UK will definitely benefit and experience severe cold and snow.

Unfortunately, it looks to me that we are slipping headlong into a very common and stubborn pattern of Atlantic dominated weather.

We've had a very long spell where the Atlantic has been so quiet due to blocking but now it seems to have regained it's grip and that could be very difficult to break!

But, a fantastic spell of model watching ahead. 🎅

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IMO, there's no reason to be all downbeat and downhearted: we've been expecting plenty of model-volatility, during the run-up to the SSW, and volatility is what we've got...there are plenty of apparent turnarounds to come yet?:santa-emoji:

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

IMO, there's no reason to be all downbeat and downhearted: we've been expecting plenty of model-volatility, during the run-up to the SSW, and volatility is what we've got...there are plenty of apparent turnarounds to come yet?:santa-emoji:

Going off some of this mornings comments Pete, there’s gonna be a few ups and downs too 🤪 

I can’t find a single thing to be negative about. Life’s Good ☺️

now, on to the 06z we go ❄️

Edited by karlos1983

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Just looks to me like we have a mid lat high around us in a holding pattern and at some point there is a drop off of the low heights to the north so that the next amplification off the ESB raises our ridge - to our west, north or northeast is the question .....

still confused as to why people get so hung up on conditions on the 25th December ..........it’s just another day meteorologically speaking .......

Darn it.  To think I've wasted 60 years hoping that next Christmas will be snowy.  I'll never be able to watch that film 'White Christmas' again - after all, it's just another day....   😉  

In the meantime, this thread still has the words 'hunt for cold' in the title, so I'm not feeling guilty for posting these charts from the CFS covering 28th Dec to 2nd Jan:

image.thumb.gif.467bc79865141942822af22029955030.gif    image.thumb.gif.57c834697b459d737806d530b10823a1.gif

It only goes to show that anything is possible even within the next ten days.

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

IMO, there's no reason to be all downbeat and downhearted: we've been expecting plenty of model-volatility, during the run-up to the SSW, and volatility is what we've got...there are plenty of apparent turnarounds to come yet?

Problem is there is no volality at all in the GFS. It has consistently shown a brief mid latitude block that eventually sinks when bizarrely the polar vortex gets its act together after an SSW.

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2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Problem is there is no volality at all in the GFS. It has consistently shown a brief mid latitude block that eventually sinks when bizarrely the polar vortex gets its act together after an SSW.

That's because it hasn't begun showing on. The model yet.... 

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45 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

A benign boring anticyclonic christmas / new year from the 00z models 

I will gladly take that instead of wind and rain. It will do for now.  A bit of frost about will make it at least a bit seasonal . I'm waiting for the fun and games to begin at some point in Jan.

We have a ticket in the draw for cold and snow. But that draw hasn't taken place yet. I'm hopeful that we have a golden ticket. 

Edited by sundog

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1 hour ago, Snowy L said:

Problem is there is no volality at all in the GFS. It has consistently shown a brief mid latitude block that eventually sinks when bizarrely the polar vortex gets its act together after an SSW.

My apologies, Snowy...I really meant 'poster volatility'!😁

Edited by Ed Stone

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53 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks for posting these Gav 🙂

EC /UKMO literally chalk and cheese, UKMO no thanks, EC yes please..

UKMO run this morning just horrible. Get the slug pellets out.

C

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7 minutes ago, carinthian said:

UKMO run this morning just horrible. Get the slug pellets out.

C

Slug as in euro high pressure and mild south to southeasterly winds?

Edited by EastAnglian

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Until we get rid of the euro/Iberian heights there’s not a lot that can go right for the Uk.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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1 minute ago, EastAnglian said:

Slug as in euro high pressure and south to southeasterly winds?

Southwesterly winds and cloud laden days and nights . Diminutive temperature changes . Usual festive mildness for Blighty.

 C

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Everyone calm down just need be  patient here models are all over the place all back ground signals are looking excellent for us all I’m getting my snow boots ready..😁

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49 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Seriously ? Have you looked at the mean height anomalies for the next 5-15 days ? Total opposite of what you're suggesting.  

 

Reverse psychology Stewart!  😉
Edited by snowblizzard

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

A benign boring anticyclonic christmas / new year from the 00z models..not a sniff of anything wintry..hope things change but currently no sign of any wintry narnia weather into the new year!💩

Yes Frosty and thats coming from you - Very much Game Over in the near to mid term - taking a break from the Models for a while.

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49 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Seriously ? Have you looked at the mean height anomalies for the next 5-15 days ? Total opposite of what you're suggesting. 

Wouldn't read too much into these plots as they don't show the whole picture. Strong region of suppression developing across the Indian Ocean and broadscale favourable environment for westerlies (weakened easterlies) across the central and eastern Pacific. Net increase in angular momentum incoming and atmosphere taking on a very El Nino look to it.

I'm guessing that would be along the lines with what @Tamara is saying on "33andrain" the VP200 anomaly map..

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

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