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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

if you watch the animated version first signs that that high starts to move towards Greenland right at the end

Even from the still image posted, you can see the extension towards Greenland. Decent chart. Shame it's 16 days away.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

eye candy charts hardly verify,so glad they aren't showing at the moment.viewing charts that never verify isn't much fun to me

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
16 hours ago, smith25 said:

Anyone know where Mr murr is? I enjoy reading his take on things and he's been very quiet recently.

He hardly bothers to post here anymore,but he's not the only one with excellent  informative posts that have vanished.Where is Tamara and Ian fennel and his excellent long range forecasts?They both gone too.

It's a mystery I tell you????

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

The most frustrating chart of this winter goes to UKMO, will that low west of Ireland ever bugger of?

UW144-21.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Looked at the 18z Manchester ensembles andthe ensembles that brought the coldest 850hpa air  at some point were from the west!

GFSP01EU18_336_2.png

GFSP13EU18_342_2.png

GFSP01EU18_360_2.png

 

I don't know if it is correct but it does feel as though when something is happening in the stratosphere, the troposphere charts show hardly any eye candy charts in FI  and when the stratosphere charts are showing a strong vortex, there are eye candy charts in FI somewhere.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Much more amplified on this run by Boxing Day , Europe should get cold quick which would help if we do find an Easterly early Jan.

88F6C190-5714-493B-8D61-A355D1EA3194.png

60E761D9-2456-44B5-A803-141A62631E11.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bromborough WIRRAL
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold, hot sunny summer's and autumn storms
  • Location: Bromborough WIRRAL
7 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Disgusting 18z. Absolutely hideous and probably the worst I've seen this winter. High pressure to the south and low pressure to the north throughout. Looks completely at odds with all the background signals and strat forecasts, thank goodness. I would post some charts, but people would probably vomit looking at them.

Them charts hurt my eye's. So glad you didnt post any.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Yes exciting stuff heights lowering to our south.

Up up and away goes heights to our north possible undercutting.

Classic I'm so pleased to see heights to our south pulling away.

And PV dropping into Scandinavian side also slight correction west on the low to our east.

I expect this will chip and change but if nothing cold comes out of this then I believe we would just been very unlucky.

But I really believe that winter is creeping in for real now.

gfs-0-192.thumb.png.4143e8b4557fc272e6ec4023339fe84c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
7 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Disgusting 18z. Absolutely hideous and probably the worst I've seen this winter. High pressure to the south and low pressure to the north throughout. Looks completely at odds with all the background signals and strat forecasts, thank goodness. I would post some charts, but people would probably vomit looking at them.

00Z no better, think we're looking at a very mild 2 weeks, no frost even, sigh, another disgusting deep FI, never rate early Jan anyway for cold

 

gfs-0-276.png?0

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
15 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 never rate early Jan anyway for cold

 

 

Eh? June maybe

 

Ecm t168 would be cool/cold dry for Boxing Day. Then we wait for future output to see where the high goes.

3509FF71-A89D-44C9-923B-85BE149A06CD.png

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
26 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

00Z no better, think we're looking at a very mild 2 weeks, no frost even, sigh, another disgusting deep FI, never rate early Jan anyway for cold

 

gfs-0-276.png?0

With high pressure in the vicinity I think frosts will not be a problem......but I think you know that.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
15 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Eh? June maybe

 

Ecm t168 would be cool/cold dry for Boxing Day. Then we wait for future output to see where the high goes.

3509FF71-A89D-44C9-923B-85BE149A06CD.png

indeed less bullish today the ecm.

we are very close to colder outcome now jma 10hpa toasted strat is just really exceptional.

image.thumb.png.97ad3ed55ce0aff661d75cb82e6d21f4.png

 

image.thumb.png.556b84f1884ddb81ac3c01c322e53905.png

 

image.thumb.png.d778189ca96f1356fae4a391f5be58d3.png

this ecm looks a little slower in building heights but better than yesterdays 

image.thumb.png.120157d4fd04ad7c0362b74d6bdfbc97.png

although 192 does not exactly show chart of the day by far but we do see that lower pressure trying to come round through the backdoor.

into the med.

but with the ecm recent performance it must be taken with a pinch of salt at least until the strat split or displacement is complete. 

image.thumb.png.425e51ae3d93e6f138cbc30c387bb944.png

ecm 192 could go like this hopefully 

image.thumb.png.e56a51a5f1cb9cb5b303980e95df2cae.png

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Certainly, GFS showing little sign of any change to what has been stable output for days. High pressure over/close to the UK till early Jan. No sign from a NH perspective of any wave 2 actions in the GEFS, and the PV continues to freely move around to our north. The mean at D16:

gens-21-1-384.thumb.png.9a80277f1e3be9e40858db43a6d0524b.png

The mean high sinks a bit compared to the rest of the output. The GEFS show no sign of cold, with the mean being 5c above the seasonal average viz T850s (though ground temps may be closer or below the average):

graphe9_1000_309_145___.thumb.gif.769a3d4ee620bd67b9e03b7dc7f8281c.gif

The good part is that when the flip is switched things will change relatively quickly, the question is when not if (hopefully)? Another good thing is that when cold/blocked charts start appearing we know that they are unlikely to be the models leading us up the garden path and we can then just hope that the UK gets a bit of the action!

So the rest of December looks to have zero chance of snow or severe cold but settled and seasonal after the trough clears post D5.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Aaah well after the slight excitement of the 12zs yesterday the boredom continues today!!back to square one sort of!!models couldnt build on the potential between 144 and 168 hours!!that low to the west in the atlantic is defo the culprit!!

Infact looking at IDOS asessment above the ensembles show strong support for even highet 850temps between 5 and 10 degrees well into the first week of january!!

Edited by shaky
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
4 hours ago, SLEETY said:

eye candy charts hardly verify,so glad they aren't showing at the moment.viewing charts that never verify isn't much fun to me

Missed the point

At least if eye candy charts are on view it shows something the models are toying with something , currently there is absolutely nothing .

I have a feeling we could be chasing the end of the rainbow

Edited by Banbury
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Ecm at t216 and t240 I know fi but look at the high moving nw. Just another run that is unlikely to be correct or the start of a theme? 

042FD14D-1C7F-400A-AF38-00AAFC11D51C.png

40CDA657-86BB-480B-8753-10CDA15D6604.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, smith25 said:

Blimey you'd think winter was over going by some posts this morning.  Remember folks until the models get a grip of this potential SSW event then take all outputs with a large bucket of salt.

A sensible post !!

No agreement at 144 this morning, lots to be resolved, i notice GFS less inclined to show a split at 10Hpa - lets see where we are in a few days , frustrating for sure but with so much disagreement at 144 its a bit futile posting GEFS day 16 charts IMHO..

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

If we are going to see anything cold from the strat developments, then I strongly feel this won't be until mid Jan. Until then we will just have to put up with our usual  winter weather.

Hopefully around this time next week we might start to see the kinda charts we want see in the outer reaches of FI

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Not much agreement at 144t between latest ECM and GFS runs. Perhaps ECM and GEM closest to the same evolution. Not sure where UKMO is heading. All a bit confusing and must say frustrating for the hunt for cold. Same really for where I am heading to shortly , Western Canada. We surely must see some consensus with the main models soon for Christmas !!

C

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