Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

Not sure what to make of the GFS ensembles at day 10, there’s a couple of gooduns but honestly on the whole they are very dissappointing the vortex seems to be reorganising, oddly. Day 10 plus look good mind you, seen that before though!

Seems 24 hours ago the GFS had the strat impacts filtering down a lot quicker than right now, par for the course with SSW I guess.

Edited by Weathizard
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

GEFS complete with GFS(P)

image.thumb.png.0938fb8f253c23495555947ba1720d2a.png

It's the slippery slope we all want a ride on :spiteful:

Obsolutely 'BANGING' set there..

And make a tie 2 the gfs parra!!..

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BOOM! ZWR! TR!

image.thumb.png.76b83434d8f3b003dad40426686bfb58.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Evening Star said:

Wayyyy too cold!!!!

I'm sorry, I don't speak Swahili, can someone translate  😁

image.png.8ed40cb2426543359bf32da464c1dc63.png

absolutely perfect chart for mid winter, yes please Para!

So exactly what we would expect so far today really, models all over the place trying to figure out the route forward. Expect this to continue for a while yet!

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So it's gone from almost certain cold, from mid Jan, to the usual mild muck, with a far from certain chance of something colder? And just as the models start to pick-up on 'something colder'...You couldn't make it up!

  • Like 2
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Glacier Point said:

.. back to views out of hotel windows in Torquay....

Unless and until upstream Pacific flow is resolved, and until strat downwelling takes place, out to day 10 will have a strong mid latitude high component for NW Europe.

Can you see herds of wilder beasts or the hanging gardens of Babylon GP ?

Glad to see the GSFP has lightened the mood until the next panic starts.

I think we are going to need regular updates from the likes of Glacier Point, Nick F, John H Blue Army Singularity Catacol, BB1962, Carithian and Steve Murr to keep us all fully informed on the ongoing direction of travel. There is just too much information to digest sometimes but updates from these guys should keep us on the straight and narrow.   

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

So it's gone from almost certain cold, from mid Jan, to the usual mild muck, with a far from certain chance of something colder? And just as the models start to pick-up on 'something colder'...You couldn't make it up!

As per previous theme .... ‘don’t mention Exeter’s update...... i mentioned it once but I think I got away with it ‘ ......

if that’s what the modelling shows then that what they are going to go with ... ec46 wasn’t cold till the backend of jan as the jet sank far enough south ....

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Dunstable Snow said:

Can you see herds of wilder beasts or the hanging gardens of Babylon GP ?

Glad to see the GSFP has lightened the mood until the next panic starts.

I think we are going to need regular updates from the likes of Glacier Point, Nick F, John H Blue Army Singularity Catacol, BB1962, Carithian and Steve Murr to keep us all fully informed on the ongoing direction of travel. There is just too much information to digest sometimes but updates from these guys should keep us on the straight and narrow.   

Should also have included Nick Sussex in my request list above despite his team ruining my new years day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Wow. 

Met office update, no cold until end of Jan NOT week 3 as previously suggested. 

The wait goes on. 

The game goes on ,but tomorrow's update could be different again .The warming as taken place ,I'm sure we will soon see some brilliant charts appearing, unexpected ,sudden ,mind blowing output . I'm up the wood shed right now ,it's freezing ,frost as just melted ,we await this evening's output, STELLAS all round gang. 

  • Like 6
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Dunstable Snow said:

I think we are going to need regular updates from the likes of Glacier Point, Nick F, John H Blue Army Singularity Catacol, BB1962, Carithian and Steve Murr to keep us all fully informed on the ongoing direction of travel. There is just too much information to digest sometimes but updates from these guys should keep us on the straight and narrow.   

The musings of these great forecasters and weather gurus now appear at variance to the Met Office boffins with the cold and chance of snow pushed out to month end as opposed to mid month. Will be interesting to see what occurs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

As per previous theme .... ‘don’t mention Exeter’s update...... i mentioned it once but I think I got away with it ‘ ......

if that’s what the modelling shows then that what they are going to go with ... ec46 wasn’t cold till the backend of jan as the jet sank far enough south ....

Ah, now I get it BA: what I smelled was not a rat, it was a hamster!🐹

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Met Office chat here please.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.75379502388e146c3b2d0698551cdd06.png
 

Not a bad set of 06z ensembles, appears to me there are a few more members below

Edited by dallas
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Comparing trends from 31/12 to today's run. Weak snow signal has inched closer. The Parallel at 850 drops like a stone from 10/1. The scatter and noise seems very high, even in a short time frame (4/5 days away)

Fascinating to once again see the models struggle to reconcile against the SSW impacts. Always seems to be the same!

Liam Dutton's explanation made sense to my layman's brain - the models are clearly able to model and understand SSW impacts, but the issue is that the SSW impacts are also a forecast! So it's a forecast based on a forecast... like averaging an average, you can end up wide of the mark.

Still seems to be on track for cold, even if the exact date remains just out of reach for now.

31st:

gefs.thumb.JPG.10acf8f6558b2b76eebb2e63dd30be3f.JPG

 

 2nd Jan: 

 

GEFS2019-1-2.JPG

Edited by Selliso
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice to see the precipitation spikes coinciding with the coldest conditions, too...:santa-emoji:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The models still not sure what happens with shortwave energy in the Atlantic .

The will it or won’t it phase with the upstream troughing saga goes on.  They also disagree on the level of amplification towards the ne USA.

The ECM today has no phase , last night it did .  Detail wise for the UK this makes a big difference so for the timebeing no certainty as to what’s going to happen in the next week.

The quickest route to cold is the no phase scenario.

PS am important  driver of next weeks weather is a developing low moving east across the USA, the trough to the west of the UK will respond to that. The more amplified the low the more sharpness will develop in that trough . If you have no phasing earlier this will help drive the shortwave se developing a stronger ridge to the nw . That’s why the phase or not is crucial . The UKMO unfortunately phases the shortwave but look at its upstream pattern at day 6 and the response of the trough  , no phase and things could get interesting .

Edited by nick sussex
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location."

For most, the bit in bold is an easy instruction to follow. But for those who insist on ignoring it, your posts will continue to be removed.

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

If we all believe exactly what the Met Office say, it does beg the question..... What the hell are all doing on here, watching model run after model run? we can just read the MetO updates once a day and be done with it............ What fun!

onto the 12z we go following a confused set of models so far today!

image.thumb.png.f7485b98fe5fb825b21a47f5ac6f2e20.pngimage.thumb.png.db7ad88c5075d8a4bf4c681212edb2c7.pngimage.thumb.png.5bc08167c4288fb09712824e290a909d.png

top right one looks like the Vortex has just had something warm stuck up its jacksie!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The low you need to keep an eye on is the one over the central north USA at day 6 .

The big 3 fail to agree on its amplitude , the GFS is the flattest with that , the ECM more amplified , the UKMO the most amplified .

NCEP currently favour slower solutions which means the more amplified solutions .

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...