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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


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Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

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Posted
  • Location: Poulton,Wirral, Merseyside, altitude 17m
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold, hot sunny summer's and autumn storms
  • Location: Poulton,Wirral, Merseyside, altitude 17m
    6 hours ago, Mapantz said:

    I absolutely am..

    After the wettest November and December I have recorded and not a single sub-zero minimum temperature either, the chart below is pure eye candy for some.

    viewimage.thumb.png.7e66f4635e40badabf2625778e81a2ec.png

    Me too @manpantz. After days on end of seeing mild temps thick cloud and damp. To see a clear crisp sky and a slight nip in the air, it actually feels like winter today 

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    Nice weather porn on FV3 this morning. 30 cm of snow, I'll take that. Pity its in far FI

    gfseu-16-384.png

    gfseu-9-384.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

    Can't say I'm much of a fan of this mornings ECM.

    Yes, not what I was hoping for. 

    Starts to setup a good northerly and then too much energy in the jet flattens it.

    Sure it will be different again come the 12z.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Yesterday's 0z ecm had a nice easterly setting in at the end of the run. Today's the jet is flattened and winds are coming from the SW

    Si really shows how fl is a complete waste of time.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

    What I don’t get is why people are constantly looking at charts for like 6,7,8 days away etc just look at the trend for the next 4 days most and you can see the way things are going. Ie Atlantic will not be coming through and it’s going to get colder. You no that annoying phrase get the cold in first etc etc. 

    The models don’t have a grip on things for next week yet so if you want to take things as gospel that far out then expect wild happy and unhappy swings. Not for me thanks I’d rather be level headed get enough swings at home.

    its all going to plan for a good cold spell so relax

    ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

    Hopefully just a wobble from the overnight Ecm run for it's a considerable downgrade on recent runs. Would be great to have the full impact of the SSW felt within the next fortnight giving us a good 6 weeks from then till end of Feb  to possibly enjoy its fruits rather than have it all happening too little too late, much like what happend end of Feb ‘18.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Well the 00z runs are poor across the board really,just too much energy in the northern arm.

    Still in wait and see mode but i would be lying if i didn't say alarm bells are beginning to ring..

    EC/UKMO which were showing signs of a ridgy Atlantic suddenly look very flat.

    image.thumb.png.98876286030b899063506cda805501b5.png

    image.thumb.png.754787138a5fe6f011a93512d652aef1.png

    We have an excellent profile to our E/SE but getting zero help in the Atlantic..

    Fingers crossed we start to see some better charts, soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The ECM is back to keeping the shortwave and low separate .

    And scrapes some brief excitement , we get the scraps of a Little Chef whilst further east they continue to dine in Michelin starred restaurant !

    The problem continues to be a lack of amplitude and any cold can’t establish itself .

    The ECM reliability in recent days has been abysmal I’d ignore it until it’s settled down and others back it .

    The issue upstream is what happens with the shortwave and low associated with the main trough .

    Until we know whether that remains separate or phases then any forecast is likely to hit the buffers .

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Extended eps are headed in the same direction as the previous suite ..... a tad more nw/se with the systems than yesterday’s noon run.......a familiar fi gfs tale from the previous weeks runs and presumably what glosea or mogreps are seeing 

    the eps remain different to the gems and gefs re the upstream amps and AO negativity 

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    16 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    00z GFS PARA / FV3 looks OK, cold northerly by mid-week next week, then a colder NEly flow developing next Thursday as high pressure tries to ridge NE.

    174.thumb.png.ca83ed791e329872293e0c9c10338518.png210.thumb.png.966d22b7d179777bf0b82fa72350bcb3.png

    If high pressure system stays west enough, plenty of scope for the above evolution to evolve, EC has been heading in this direction, though 00z kind of goes pear shaped towards with too much energy over the top thanks to deep vortex over Greenland/Baffin and resultant low heights into Iceland. 

    Thanks Nick, yes the para by far the best of the 00z runs..

     

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

     

    Nice spot Kev ?

    Fingers crossed these positive background signals manifest themselves in NWP products soon..

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl

    Slightly underwhelmed here. If after all the expectation and waiting, all we get down here in the SW is to watch the rest of Europe and most of this country get cold and snowy, whilst we enjoy cold rain or a bit of frost, I think I'll sob.

    Note to self...patience, patience, patience.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
    12 minutes ago, jethro said:

    Slightly underwhelmed here. If after all the expectation and waiting, all we get down here in the SW is to watch the rest of Europe and most of this country get cold and snowy, whilst we enjoy cold rain or a bit of frost, I think I'll sob.

    Note to self...patience, patience, patience.

    Hi Jethro

     

    Don't think you'll be excluded. Just a matter of time. How much is anyones guess but I think we maybe talking a fair duration of cold and also widespread so hold on in there and watch.... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
    56 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Nice spot Kev ?

    Fingers crossed these positive background signals manifest themselves in NWP products soon..

    Catacol said yesterday he is digging out his de-icer and scraper and checking where his wellies and shovel are. Last time he said that was in February and we all know what happened next so keep the faith ?

    edit that was meant as a reply to Jethro, wrong quote, sorry.

    Edited by Bazray
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    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
    • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
    • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
    • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)
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