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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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2 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Everyone having fun yet 🙂🙂 That's a peach from the ECM at 240..

Just been busy on the GMAO run - what a displacement of the Euro daughter vortice.. incredible.

15.thumb.png.5f5bd03454c692000e5407d1714eca21.png64.thumb.png.40f113eaac202ed8391b02cedb28c5da.png82.thumb.png.68ae6eb8ab1453795d8e4afe89c9bff6.png

Oh my god, that 3rd chart is within 240!!!   -  surely we are in business then - whats the verification rate like ?

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And if the strat profile on the GFS is right, destination scandi for the high and very cold to become severely cold by months end.

The best 6 words in the English language!

These type of charts are going to become ever more prevalent over the next few days, it's what's been promised and would appear to be coming into sharper view.  BRING IT ON.......

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4 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Actually for the Midlands and north into March; this is a brilliant site

http://swanstonweather.co.uk/EppingWeatherPages/Index.html

Sorry for the complete off-topic post, but thanks for that! The top picture is of a house just two doors down from me! Ties in to my nan's stories about my auntie being born in the middle of that snowstorm. There was apparently a snow/ ice pile in the back garden until the June of that year!  I'd pay lots of money to see just half of that in my lifetime!

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, IDO said:

Unlike the ECM 0z D10, I can actually believe the synoptic of the 12z.

A good starting point as we head mid-month.

Obviously, come the day it may not be as good as that D10 chart, but something in the same vein would be great.

I am also aware that as things are seemingly finally happening, we could see change for the better very quickly, high entropy after D7 at the moment, and even though luck has been absent so far this winter, with that UK high, "potential" is a worthy adjective.

Something we have not seen this winter for the extended, T850s <-5c probability from D8-16:

tempresult_qve4.gif  Usually our luck>>> gensprob-28-60.thumb.png.17e3e6270b79c9b9a941d6d124cf39ce.png

My word, a well thought out post that isn't an attempt to annoy others. Good work. New years resolution IDO? For my location I love the renewing feed of cold in this run. From Russia with love. 

tempresult_arn0.gif

tempresult_yyn4.gif

Edited by Seasonality

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Posted (edited)

JMA not without interest either! 

AA870EA1-6288-4CDC-B000-DB9253FDD182.thumb.gif.bf4432579e1ecf78e2bb491c172dbd31.gif

Could see that heading the same direction as the ECM

Edited by karlos1983

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EC ensemble not updating? 

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1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

EC ensemble not updating? 

19:45.

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7 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

We're still waiting... though I compare the 'hunt for cold' comparable to the 'hunt for bigfoot' - very mythical beast (sometimes from the east sometimes from the Pacific north west) which could be stirring in the distance and it's different from the norm and blurry in nature but might be making a move towards us, when it gets close there will be nervous excitement. Just hope it's not the normal hoax.

Sometimes easy to forget what's under your nose I am not sure about other regions but here in NW England we have a low of -4c overnight and a high of 5c tomorrow lasting into the weekend not bone chilling admitily but also not in the mild category either.So in a way you could say the colder conditions have arrived but I await with everyone else for the snow.

C.S

 

 

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3 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

EC ensemble not updating? 

It is on WB .... shoud be out on meteociel on time ....

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It is on WB .... shoud be out on meteociel on time ....

Meteociel issue then, usually the ensemble starts updating right after the operational is done

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Sometimes easy to forget what's under your nose I am not sure about other regions but here in NW England we have a low of -4c overnight and a high of 5c tomorrow lasting into the weekend not bone chilling admitily but also not in the mild category either.So in a way you could say the colder conditions have arrived but I await with everyone else for the snow.

C.S

 

 

All the cars in our street have covers on the windscreens, one mention of frost on the news and they prepare for snowmageddon

Edited by Sparky68
misquote

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

well ec op is pretty well the same if not prettier 

7ED42504-20FC-4490-A260-4A1216491433.thumb.jpeg.aa030516e52c191b01acf943d76f16fa.jpeg

the AO headed towards neg 3 and NAO neg 2 by day 10

gefs are solidly negative once dropping around 5th 

running that ec op on the NH profile shows a clear downwelling wave coming from the Pacific side day 5 and ejecting around scandi day 10 ....... given it begins within 5 days of the SSW, i’d call that a QTR ... Berlin charts should be fun to look at in the morning. 

Note the strat chart imprint clearly on the trop by day 10 .......I hope mr Fawkes isn’t looking! 

If ec op is onto the correct pattern then this is going to be a good trip to be on!

Well well well, my fears about not s wide enough split have been blown away inside 36 hours (hopefully), just to note here that the GFS ends the run with the split maintained at 10mb, would love to see the EPS later, just need them on board for a 1947 redux.

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1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

Meteociel issue then, usually the ensemble starts updating right after the operational is done

It doesn't it starts around 1943 and finishes around 1948

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Posted (edited)

I wonder if New Years Day 2019 will be the day the scales tipped in our favour, before then lots of waiting and disappointment. Maybe now the SSW has happened and with the vortex splitting the models will only get better from now, and the excitement will build in this place, we have waited patiently and deserve it! Reminds me a little of what happened earlier in Feb / March 2018 after the SSW the models got progressively more bullish by the day and would not back down.

Edited by Bazray

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Ah what fun it is all of a sudden. We’ll see what the morn brings but nice to see at last some clearly modelled suggestion that the theoretical musings of the past month or so (exceptional trop-strat energy transfers aligned to wave-2 hence split vortex precursor patterns) will bear glorious fruit after all.

I’ll be a lot more sober tomorrow so here’s hoping the ECM 12z proves to be into something, though such a quick trop response is about surprising having been reading of the unusual nature of this warming event duration-wise. Have the upper-strat (above 10 hPa) charts shifted toward a faster vortex recovery...? If so then it really is game on for the donwell IMO. Can’t check right now as I’m on a very disagreeable old mobile. TIA

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