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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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EC moves towards gfs at 192 hrs.bit meh for me 

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2 minutes ago, swfc said:

EC moves towards gfs at 192 hrs.bit meh for me 

Looks better than GFS but i honestly thought it would be better.

Still waiting for the Atlantic to play ball..

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GFS(P),GFS, ECM at 192 

939205148_ScreenShot2019-01-01at18_46_48.thumb.png.38905d86bea2931d56ccb84b132b0bd5.png      1002663395_ScreenShot2019-01-01at18_47_02.thumb.png.0a730fb979882685ce3d5ac3b7d806b2.png     255231004_ScreenShot2019-01-01at18_47_12.thumb.png.072bdb8320629a3ddb0bee2df98f6b7f.png

 

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Which it does at 216, finally energy going south..

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This screams potential to me, linking heights over the Arctic.

5CB9D78D-755E-4B3B-A439-3B3759F92C91.png

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Just now, Ali1977 said:

This screams potential to me, linking heights over the Arctic.

5CB9D78D-755E-4B3B-A439-3B3759F92C91.png

216 is a lot better Ali 🙂

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Same again at 216

946651500_ScreenShot2019-01-01at18_50_34.thumb.png.8ee82bddb872b224134498e8e898f603.png   1223142549_ScreenShot2019-01-01at18_50_42.thumb.png.6efdb8e35157f400bb7baf0edf99f648.png   299243138_ScreenShot2019-01-01at18_50_50.thumb.png.3760c6a68355be739caebc3a6b95512e.png

 

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ECM 240 is pretty i'd say 

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ECM at 240...a nice Continental feed: image.thumb.png.61962dd5d897be0f137e65e5776ee56f.png

 

 

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Shortwave calamity followed by an attempt to salvage later on sums up the ECM so far .

I wouldn’t trust any model until that shortwave energy in the Atlantic is sorted out.

The chopping and changing between runs makes anything past day 5 subject to big changes .

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The cold would soon be with us after day 10 . 

B5417350-03FD-4E10-BC0C-9C9D88C6A649.png

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ECM 240

Boomy McBoomFace

 

ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BOOM!

image.thumb.png.808071d396b8f3de563adf20ed99a678.png

Absolute stonker! Ties in nicely with the Strat profile 🥶

this is where the lobe of death can become the lobe of love ! 

Edited by karlos1983
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The 240 is great, but it's what would come thereafter is the exciting bit!

image.thumb.png.e312aa080b17b74dc06941451bbebcbe.png

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

Absolute stonker! Ties in nicely with the Strat profile 🥶

And if the strat profile on the GFS is right, destination scandi for the high and very cold to become severely cold by months end.

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I'd speculate the SSW is helping out big time @192 because the arctic high is moving into the vaccum..

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The building blocks are starting to come together at last. It's been a slow process but you just get a feeling the turn in year has coincided with something special brewing!

Odds on now that Jan 19 will deliver a significant cold spell 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Shortwave calamity followed by an attempt to salvage later on sums up the ECM so far .

I wouldn’t trust any model until that shortwave energy in the Atlantic is sorted out.

The chopping and changing between runs makes anything past day 5 subject to big changes .

2

Absolutely Nick, however, given everything that's going on high above us, this next few weeks may be one of those rare periods where all roads eventually lead to a cold/very cold outcome!?

Edited by Ice Day
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