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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Posted (edited)

Plenty Interest in the ENS by day 8 👍

A67A0A4A-C2EA-4199-B8F2-7AC2C3756A06.png

65FEC437-0817-48C4-8C6C-476345BD2F04.png

Things are defo getting more interesting that’s for sure 

Edited by Ali1977

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Note the increasing easterly influence across the channel.

image.thumb.png.da43ea725c586c6181903c7cb8eb835d.png

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2 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

So lots of ups and downs and jumping on and off is what you're saying? That innuendo is getting closer! 😁

I think the fact that yesterday there was a sudden flip in the models in response to the SSW means we can expect to see these kind of runs increase in number but not every run at first. 

I remember the models doing this! Eye candy charts then nothing then back again . I think everyone yesturday got excited because it was the 1st run to show anything after what feels like forever mild weather. So i certainly haven't given up on some nice winter weather 

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ECM extended ensembles D15

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019010100_360.

Dominant theme remains trough east (5 out of 6 clusters) - the unclear bit is what happens west - I'm guessing at very least a ridge/trough /ridge pattern, or perhaps a more substantial ridge. The colder side of things looks favored any how. 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Purga said:

Note the increasing easterly influence across the channel.

image.thumb.png.da43ea725c586c6181903c7cb8eb835d.png

Icelandic clusters are up, oper has support of around 33% of members

 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019010100_240.

Edited by ArHu3

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Posted (edited)

P5 Would do!!

B4DDC206-9D12-4BB3-A57B-BF2C2C244A6B.png

D728D772-0615-4592-A67C-8E383752ADC9.png

Into this

0A631130-2D9C-4464-94A7-FD9F5CD8DAAE.png

Edited by Ali1977

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13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

FV3 creating that 'loop' I was reffering to

5E3EB01E-B54F-400D-A384-F8F1D56ABEE8.thumb.jpeg.13e32721864e82cab6cf73e27d5ea0a6.jpeg

Yes Steve and better 850s following @ 180 hrs

gfsnh-1-180.png?6

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An excellent set of GEFs at D16, the first time I have been quite hopeful there is a sea change:

gens_panel_qxh0.png  gens_panel_gvq3.png

 

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Parallel bringing snow down East coasts just over a week away. Good to follow the Murr evolution.

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Another good GFSp with snow in the east next week as low pressure drains south and lowers heights around Spain 

D217846E-1A16-4F9D-9C2E-3B534A304D40.png

6BB2899F-3C36-4CCD-9585-84686498185C.png

27FE8474-71D4-4D3D-8AA8-81A62DFF99DA.png

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Posted (edited)

Happy new year all

 

Regardless of what the GFS is showing I think cold is now yes but a waiting game.. 

Great to see that we are not looking at Atlantic dominated weather.. Almost on queue with last year's wintry events.. 

Patience will be rewarded I feel.. 

Note to Eastern regions from tonight will also be Much much cooler than recent days with frost and freezing fog 

Edited by Surrey

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So I’m coming round now if a little dizzy, not sure if I’m still drunk looking at the models this morning but I’m liking what I’m seeing. Think this point could well be the start of the countdown to some pretty exciting disruptive stuff

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Gfsp delivers great nhp in fi.game on imo.happy new year😄

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3 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

... all of a sudden, some notable model output beginning to appear...

Progression of mjo towards favourable tropical forcing phases not to be overlooked here.

I wonder how much Exeter’s jan cold punt was predicated on the MJO and how much on the SSW ????

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I wonder how much Exeter’s jan cold punt was predicated on the MJO and how much on the SSW ????

Happy NY blue, i was pondering this myself TBH the other day...

Is the MJO going to be the main driver as opposed to the SSW?

Still on target this morning acc to Exeter..

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Posted (edited)

The 00z ECM ens shows the back end of this week will see temps struggling even by day with Friday struggling to hit 3c on Friday afternoon. A slight recovery into next week with maxes around 5c by day

b64ef9fe-d263-4272-9d8d-e9a3e66ea778.thumb.png.333a0203bff893c7b3eb530930afb80c.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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image.thumb.png.04e0135b330d2d00c63405c87a9572b6.pngimage.thumb.png.214059160198754aa250e6b77ecf38e6.png

Both gfs and ecm hinting at retrogression, with the ecm being slightly more amplified around the 168t mark.

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Posted (edited)

Nae a bad chart at all, at T+213: -8Cish 850s, long sea-track, warm SSTs...What more could one want (not counting -15 uppers of course!)?:cold:

image.thumb.png.f67eaa04671ec6dda72f43dce98b7de6.png

Stonkeroonie! Things are starting to a bit like a rinse-and-repeat cycle...like February 1969...?:drunk:

image.thumb.png.2b57b7ca7b997d4ea28c2ecea3328b8c.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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