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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Where have all the clever people gone?? Hurry back from your NYE celebrations...you can't leave me in charge of interpreting the model output!! 😳😳

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Never mind cold...some of these charts are starting to scream potential water problems down the road if we don't start getting these weather systems through. 

 

After a long hot summer this is not good.

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 A good GFS but it is in the not reliable timeframe 240 hours well that says it all   May I wish all of you at NW a very happy prosperous and a peaceful 2019.  I hope it’s a good one for everyone and you all get what you want including plenty of cold and snow.

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Posted (edited)

GFS 00z has come up with the most boring run of 2019 😉

It is boring though

 

gfsnh-0-30.pnggfsnh-0-84.pnggfsnh-0-198.pnggfsnh-0-264.pnggfsnh-0-324.png

Edited by Mucka
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You vs the guy she tells you not to worry about.

gfs-0-372.png

vs.png

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Ukmo is good for europe but in no mans land for us... Really is getting silly now..

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

You vs the guy she tells you not to worry about.

gfs-0-372.png

vs.png

Wouldnt believe that there has been a SSW on that GFS 00Z one.... Sometimes i think it just comes up with anything scientifically or not as it has to show something...

When it shows a cold chart then it may be on to something obviously!!

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted (edited)

The general theme within GFS ensembles is for a trough to set up in Europe/Scandinavia and have Atlantic blocking, possible blocking to the NW around mid month or just after which would likely signal a cold phase

gensnh-21-5-360.png

That seems to be reflected in the ensemble graph

graphe3_1000_258_57___.gif

Edited by Mucka
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Posted (edited)

GFSp taking a departure from the last few runs with a more amplified upstream pattern post day 7 out of Canada/N US

gfsnh-0-168.png

:bomb::bomb::bomb: BOOM!

The best Op run so far, PV in tatters 

gfsnh-0-312.png

Welcome to 2019 ❄️:cold::cold-emoji:

gfs-1-348.pnggfs-0-348.png

Yes those charts are deep FI but important to note it is game over for the Atlantic from day 8 on this run, from there it is just a question of how clean the evolution is and how long it takes to get cold to us and how deep and long lasting it is.

Let's hope ECM latches onto something similar..

Edited by Mucka
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1 hour ago, The Eagle said:

Never mind cold...some of these charts are starting to scream potential water problems down the road if we don't start getting these weather systems through. 

 

After a long hot summer this is not good.

Not in the SW regions, I have recorded 244mm in November/December.

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ECM could be good, here’s 192

0DAE4B25-FB27-4ACA-B482-AAD9BFD58E4A.png

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ECM could be good, here’s 192

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM could be good, here’s 192

ECH1-216.GIF?01-12

216 ready to go BOOM 

Edit :that is annoying meteociel links don't display 

And happy new year to everyone of course 

Edited by ArHu3
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F1DDC4CB-E9FF-41AA-ADB9-0DFDE358B30D.thumb.png.6915256580e9488e807141111520c864.png

Was hoping for a Greenie high but this would do 👍

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Well this is better...

ECM1-192.GIF?01-12   ECM1-216.GIF?01-12   ECM1-240.GIF?01-12

An easterly in week 2 which eventually becomes cold and unstable enough to bring in some snow showers, Good trend this morning across the board were the mid range pattern is more amplified compared to recent days and as such we are now starting to seeing more interest from the second week of January onwards.

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EC is lovely 🙂

Very similar to UKMO at 120 then the two differ massively-

UKMO no thanks..

EC yes please...

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Happy new year to all my fellow cold /snow hunters. No real surprise to see the eye candy charts start appearing as mid Jan moves into model range. 

The strat and background signals have been screaming mid Jan for cold for weeks now it's just that nwp models are now finally modelling that range. Nice to both GFS and ECM make the switch at the same time. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Dave Kightley said:

Ukmo is good for europe but in no mans land for us... Really is getting silly now..

The UK is geographically part of Europe, not a separate entity, there is no us and them in that sense. Not good for cold weather fans in Western France or the iberian peninsula either according to the UKMO

UW144-7 (3).gif

Edited by Seasonality
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lol lala land and our old friend becomes our friend and sends in the beast on the ECM. GFS remembers our friend and decides not to show it the door but no beast.

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ECM is clearly awesome this morning with an easterly next week.  GFSp isn’t too bad either with snow over high ground in the north as our high shifts west and an then an unstable northerly sets in for the week after brining snow to many (a lot like the meto outlook)

 

F2FC8161-EC81-4EF8-BDED-9E7586C57018.png

BDE79D27-2E6B-46B4-B44A-C5B9C27A5512.png

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Nice to see BOOM charts from EC for a change though the op was a cold outlier in later stages for London

E1B664A3-7BD5-49CA-B8DD-FEC16E253BBD.thumb.png.e6cf0a110217b0d8c879314d6a78efb5.png

SSW / reversal at 10 hPA / 65N starting today, so will be initialised in starting data of runs today, but how they model the trop response is another matter!

 

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The ECM 0z looks unlikely from a synoptic perspective in FI. It breaks a lobe of HP from the Arctic heights and sends it to Scandi to enable a link with heights in the Atlantic. The draining of even fledgeling heights from the pole would not be expected and for them to drain to Scandi is a tall ask!

Looking at the mean at D10:

1822299157_EDM1-240(1).thumb.gif.4bd54ef1ad0c3ae92c9f299672a52e85.gifECM1-240.thumb.gif.a6775f3f0ceaee986f0a5d7d7f497cde.gif

and this is backed up. Maybe a typical ECM D10 random chart but too early to bin yet.

The GEFS remain at the point of a few potential members but no trend for anything concrete pattern wise.

My opinion is that we need wave 2 action in the Pacific to assist the other background signals. All the GEFS showing promise have the -PNO signal and the lack of this pattern is becoming a concern. It is showing in the mean at the end of FI but that is 15 days away:

gensnh-21-1-384.thumb.png.672b6e21a9e161daef9321d549288b20.png

A Happy New Year to all.

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Posted (edited)

GFS FI stella chart muted but nice little easterly from ECM this morning @ 240Hrs

image.thumb.png.58b9d8ba4ebd52be8df921380f814326.pngimage.thumb.png.94ed4bc42d57d5a5bb0ffdcd3ee06026.png

GEFS moving the cold dip nearer now to D5

image.thumb.png.8c98fc9dd6b3e88e1bf324a94cb510d2.png

😊

 

Edited by Purga

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

The UK is geographically part of Europe, not a separate entity, there is no us and them in that sense. Not good for cold weather fans in Western France or the iberian peninsula either according to the UKMO

UW144-7 (3).gif

That's Brexit for you.... 😃

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE. ❄❄

Edited by The BEAST From The East
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