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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

The UK is geographically part of Europe, not a separate entity, there is no us and them in that sense. Not good for cold weather fans in Western France or the iberian peninsula either according to the UKMO

UW144-7 (3).gif

That's Brexit for you.... ?

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE. ❄❄

Edited by The BEAST From The East
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Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

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Regarding the trigger shortwave the complex evolution if it verifies will take time to be taken on by more ensembles . The higher resolution is key in these set ups .

If you look across the models there is no agreement upstream . If you look at the UKMO although it has a decent dig south of troughing over the ne Canada it’s phased that with the Atlantic shortwave , that would be game over . As the upstream flow amplifies you must have separation between the trough and the shortwave .

 

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13 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Nice to see BOOM charts from EC for a change though the op was a cold outlier in later stages for London

E1B664A3-7BD5-49CA-B8DD-FEC16E253BBD.thumb.png.e6cf0a110217b0d8c879314d6a78efb5.png

SSW / reversal at 10 hPA / 65N starting today, so will be initialised in starting data of runs today, but how they model the trop response is another matter!

 

I always prefer the the word trendsetter to cold outlier Nick.?

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4 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I always prefer the the word trendsetter to cold outlier Nick.?

Let’s hope so. Certainly plausible given background state.

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I’ve spent years watching and learning in this forum and enjoyed it immensely and I’ve finally plucked up the courage to dip in!

However, I’m a little stumped with the current set up, looking at the GFS it has high pressure over us for the next 2 weeks, at this time of year is it out of the ordinary? 

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19 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Nice to see BOOM charts from EC for a change though the op was a cold outlier in later stages for London

E1B664A3-7BD5-49CA-B8DD-FEC16E253BBD.thumb.png.e6cf0a110217b0d8c879314d6a78efb5.png

SSW / reversal at 10 hPA / 65N starting today, so will be initialised in starting data of runs today, but how they model the trop response is another matter!

 

Not the best ENS but I guess we should ignore the Op for now. The METO long range hasn’t changed for days, that worries me as their models can’t consistently model the same outlook (they can’t be that good). I think that outlook must purely be worded around the SSW which is a shame as doesn’t give us any insight , but does tell us that any FI charts are purely that - and for now should be ignored as that’s what they seem to be doing with theirs!! 

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Not the best ENS but I guess we should ignore the Op for now. The METO long range hasn’t changed for days, that worries me as their models can’t consistently model the same outlook (they can’t be that good). I think that outlook must purely be worded around the SSW which is a shame as doesn’t give us any insight , but does tell us that any FI charts are purely that - and for now should be ignored as that’s what they seem to be doing with theirs!! 

once  people are back to work  soon hopefully    the charts will change a bit!!

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7th jan? how do people get so much time off,we are back in later today.Has the ecm finally woken up at last and can see the way forward.It maybe cold outlier but it runs at a higher resolution than the ensembles.IDO forgot to mention that when he was writing off any chance of it verifying and when he posted the 10 day mean chart.

 

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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

7th jan? how do people get so much time off,we are back in later today.Has the ecm finally woken up at last and can see the way forward.It maybe cold outlier but it runs at a higher resolution than the ensembles.IDO forgot to mention that when he was writing off any chance of it verifying and when he posted the 10 day mean chart.

 

I did forget to mention that the last 8 D10 ECM verification stats for the 12z have performed the worse on all eight runs than all other models including the GEM!

1795259811_cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX(2).thumb.png.dc2ffebe73f6ebda840fcb5fb741dbd9.png

As I have noted before, the ECM at D10 is performing significantly bad compared to its average and now worse than any other model, consistently poor. We cannot ignore that at the moment, its value is probative at the present.

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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

I did forget to mention that the last 8 D10 ECM verification stats for the 12z have performed the worse on all eight runs than all other models including the GEM!

1795259811_cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX(2).thumb.png.dc2ffebe73f6ebda840fcb5fb741dbd9.png

As I have noted before, the ECM at D10 is performing significantly bad compared to its average and now worse than any other model, consistently poor. We cannot ignore that at the moment, its value is probative at the present.

I said ignore for now, however it could well be correct th the current background signals - and nice to see either way. 

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hmm so no point taking any notice of what ecm shows then later on in its run,including if it shows very mild weather is what you mean IDO.Why do you post day 10 mean charts from ECM if the verification stats of the model are so poor .

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7 minutes ago, IDO said:

I did forget to mention that the last 8 D10 ECM verification stats for the 12z have performed the worse on all eight runs than all other models including the GEM!

1795259811_cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX(2).thumb.png.dc2ffebe73f6ebda840fcb5fb741dbd9.png

As I have noted before, the ECM at D10 is performing significantly bad compared to its average and now worse than any other model, consistently poor. We cannot ignore that at the moment, its value is probative at the present.

Highest number equals the worse then?

 

what part of the northern hemisphere is that for btw?

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Happy New Year to all NW folks. This is going to be a better year all round.

The time has come for the models to start showing us the effects of the SSW/Split, quite exciting really and my pram is empty so that`s good.

This would cheer me up no end. 

ECH0-240.png

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38 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

This is a bit OT but after the stonking charts last night I want to just remind everyone what happened last year in the lead up to the BFTE. Last year because it’s most recent but those who aren’t new will know this is pretty standard while the models get a grip on a SSW.

SSW happened. Models took a while to show any response. For a while it looked bleak.

Then models started to show a BEAUTIFUL response... 

Then literally one run/one day to the next the response would TOTALLY DISAPPEAR/DOWNGRADE.

and then appear again.

and disappear

and appear again.

I want to make a dirty innuendo but I’ll just allude to one instead.

 

My point is. Expect the next week to be a bloody rollercoaster and for hope to feel snatched away and then given back repeatedly.

So lots of ups and downs and jumping on and off is what you're saying? That innuendo is getting closer! ?

I think the fact that yesterday there was a sudden flip in the models in response to the SSW means we can expect to see these kind of runs increase in number but not every run at first. 

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11 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Highest number equals the worse then?

 

what part of the northern hemisphere is that for btw?

It is for NH (20N-80N).

The number is the 30-day average, higher best,  but daily verification is also plotted. ECM scores high on monthly average but looking at the most recent plots, it performs well below its mean and lower than the competition.

6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

it’s not specific for u.k.,if you mean that,it’s the whole NH so we don’t know how the models perform just for the U.K. 

Of course, but its all connected.

As for why I use the mean, it performs around 50% better than the op at D10 so its value is significantly more likely to verify.

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I agree the ECM has been poor at that timeframe but the  thing is we don’t need to worry about day 10.

The key timeframe is day 6 to 7 . No phasing of trough and trigger shortwave and the former amplifying means the direction of energy inevitably leads to the ridge building towards Scandi .

Of course it’s getting over that initial hurdle !

PS every easterly inevitably starts off as a cold outlier because the evolution is more complex and the ensembles take time to come on board . 

Yes, the op will pick up an easterly before the mean or its members, however, the ECM non-easterly sagas are a legend in this forum, and along with the ops poor performance at the moment maybe best to not get excited about (yet)!

Edited by IDO
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Morning all!  Heard some bangers going off last night - was there some sort of party I missed?  

It's ironic that the 'hottest' thread on NW is the 'hunt for cold'....   and anyone looking for cold conditions in 2019 need look no further than the GFSP at +348:

image.thumb.png.9fc9cfcb5c750c774fa5ad5921c1bd42.png  image.thumb.png.1af5781874a170a79b44c3a051a80a13.png

Granted that this is still 14 days away but you've got to start somewhere, right?  I'm certain that we are going to see more and more wintery charts appearing in the short term and that we're all going to see snow before the end of January.  Happy, Snowy, New Year to everyone.

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