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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 in line with my thoughts, cool / cold zonality week 3 with some plunges possible transitioning into more blocked week 4.

 

It isn't all that special actually, i dont like that Atlantic trough potential, could that be because the SSW spit wasn't far and wide enough.

Haven't seen the charts (don't know why you don't post them?) but that omni present Atlantic trough has been a pain in the back side since the early promise of late November cold. It has served to keep pressure high over Iberia and France. A real winter killer. Apart from the gfs ext ensembles things don't look too good to me tonight. 

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2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Haven't seen the charts (don't know why you don't post them?) but that omni present Atlantic trough has been a pain in the back side since the early promise of late November cold. It has served to keep pressure high over Iberia and France. A real winter killer. Apart from the gfs ext ensembles things don't look too good to me tonight. 

    image.thumb.png.7e55cd2a07c27fe08c77fb087df922ff.png     image.thumb.png.4875983d4a444489ca48084246d49f48.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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1 minute ago, georgiedre said:

Can't argue really. Looks ok

Ive adjusted them now, the first post was the wrong way around, week 3 and week 4 in the correct order.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 in line with my thoughts, cool / cold zonality week 3 with some plunges possible transitioning into more blocked week 4.

 

It isn't all that special actually, i dont like that Atlantic trough potential, could that be because the SSW spit wasn't far and wide enough.

EC46 is about as useful as a condom in a nunnery. If we were to believe its prediction from a few weeks back, we'd be seeing snow next week. 

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

EC46 is about as useful as a condom in a nunnery. If we were to believe its prediction from a few weeks back, we'd be seeing snow next week. 

I've noticed you hate the EC46 yet like the CFS Aaron?

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

EC46 is about as useful as a condom in a nunnery. If we were to believe its prediction from a few weeks back, we'd be seeing snow next week. 

They actually cum in much more good use than what you would think in such places! Lol

 

 

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I don't 'like' the CFS particularly but at least I've witnessed it nail an event at a month's range... 

Anyway more importantly what are your thoughts on the next month, mine are actually EC46 ish, in the mean time another good strat run.

image.thumb.png.6768677d5dca1a4b5a3f6562f201f7ab.png

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anyway more importantly what are your thoughts on the next month, mine are actually EC46 ish, in the mean time another good strat run.

image.thumb.png.6768677d5dca1a4b5a3f6562f201f7ab.png

Jan 15th or there abouts still looks like a good landing point to me for winds of a more N'ly origin. 

I've had a few tins though so ask me again tomorrow. Hic. 

Edited by CreweCold
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Im going for progressively colder as the month goes on but with any potential for absolutely brutal scandi high type setup the last few days of Jan into Feb.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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The latter stages of the 18z is the type of scenario the pro’s are looking at in their binary crystal balls.

We’ll have to wait until 7th of January before the ensembles catch up - fingers crossed.

F74E2DAB-EE3C-4964-9AB9-D91A01D460BE.png

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That 384 chart is almost as ridiculous as me meeting a fellow Netweather cold hunter on the train back from Derby in February.

If we manage to get close to that then happy New Year!

 

Edited by colonelks
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