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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Not sure which part of the forum I am allowed to say the Met outlook is erm... amazing.

Perhaps the Met further outlook or 16-30 day outlook thread? Not here!

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
6 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Not sure which part of the forum I am allowed to say the Met outlook is erm... amazing.

The other thread it's already been posted 100 times in? 

@Norrance beat me to it

Edited by matt111
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
7 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Not sure which part of the forum I am allowed to say the Met outlook is erm... amazing.

Here you go.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
1 minute ago, matt111 said:

The other thread it's already been posted 100 times in? 

@Norrance beat me to it

Ah ok, I never know which threads what these days. Sorry about that.

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
3 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Ah ok, I never know which threads what these days. Sorry about that.

My post was meant to be light-hearted by the way.  

Edited by matt111
Spelt it right eventually. ?‍♂️
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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft

^^ And you wonder why some people are wary of posting in here at times 

@MattStoke beat me to it.

Edited by c00ps
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Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
8 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Not sure which part of the forum I am allowed to say the Met outlook is erm... amazing.

I prefer to keep things all in one place too

In a time where model output is still a bit all over the place, it's been great to see the meto report changing daily and getting better each day too!! Something to cling onto in all the confusion!

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

The ECMs been really shown up . Some abysmal modeling and now it’s had to perform an embarrassing u turn .

Not sure what’s happened to it but it’s fall from grace continues.

Its strange as last year the GFS really struggled with the upcoming SSW - until it actually happened, perhaps the GFS algorithms had some fine tuning and seem to reflect the fact this year that some serious disruption to the normal Winter phasing might well happen. ECM was just behind Arpege last year and well ahead of GFS, but this year seems to be having a beach 'oliday whilst the others try to figure out whats going on.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
36 minutes ago, ... said:

I'm impressed that you know exactly what's going to happen over the next 240 hours.  Maybe it's volatile because it is correctly detecting that the current atmospheric state is also volatile.

I'm not sure nick means that but I take your point.imo a lot of people are taking a lot of information or background signals ie enso , qbo ,sun spot min activity , wind reversal and projected SSW and assuming that a severe cold spell is all but there come January or there abouts .I heard Paul Hudson "weather forecaster" say if you have s jigsaw given time all the pieces will fit but the weather and atmosphere will not!!! Just thought it was good advice when looking at things from a distance

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
59 minutes ago, ... said:

I'm impressed that you know exactly what's going to happen over the next 240 hours.  Maybe it's volatile because it is correctly detecting that the current atmospheric state is also volatile.

Unlikely given it’s an outlier & has consistently been out of synch with it’s ensembles for a while now 

55A4B208-A964-4A44-B884-7D9CC0A7DECB.thumb.jpeg.dd90e216cbc7345a289cd55a6e6d959f.jpeg

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
12 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Unlikely given it’s an outlier & has consistently been out of synch with it’s ensembles for a while now 

55A4B208-A964-4A44-B884-7D9CC0A7DECB.thumb.jpeg.dd90e216cbc7345a289cd55a6e6d959f.jpeg

That is only showing the 2m temps for 1 location and is only an outlier for less than a day. I wouldn’t bin the entire run based on that !

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
5 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Just been browsing this site, winter 1947

http://www.swanstonweather.co.uk/Pages/SitePlan.htm

Does that qualify as a ramp, John? 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

nope just bored and happened to come across this site when trying find model comparisons at 500 mb!

Any links for me to see how bad ECMWF is, according to some on here please?

 

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If I remember correctly, modelling was all over the place in February as well, just before the SSW. With so much going on in the atmosphere, NWP is trying to get to grips with what's going on. Expect a lot of fluctuation in model output. Probably more pertinent to watch the strat forecast over the next few days, then take it from there. 

Another point- as someone else mentioned, we definitely don't want to see that cold go into Greece. As I've said, the model output is so volatile at the moment there's absolutely no point paying attention to it. However, when the block does set up, we really don't want the cold heading into Greece and this has been a common theme in recent years unfortunately. I'm not actually suggesting that will happen on this occasion, just something to look out for over the next few weeks because an SSW-related block can of course set up unfavourably. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

nope just bored and happened to come across this site when trying find model comparisons at 500 mb!

Any links for me to see how bad ECMWF is, according to some on here please?

 

Actually those look really interesting, I'll have a good look when I have a mo.  Might be interesting to compare the map ones with the reanalysis charts on Meteociel too.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, ZK099 said:

If I remember correctly, modelling was all over the place in February as well, just before the SSW. With so much going on in the atmosphere, NWP is trying to get to grips with what's going on. Expect a lot of fluctuation in model output. Probably more pertinent to watch the strat forecast over the next few days, then take it from there. 

Another point- as someone else mentioned, we definitely don't want to see that cold go into Greece. As I've said, the model output is so volatile at the moment there's absolutely no point paying attention to it. However, when the block does set up, we really don't want the cold heading into Greece and this has been a common theme in recent years unfortunately. I'm not actually suggesting that will happen on this occasion, just something to look out for over the next few weeks because an SSW-related block can of course set up unfavourably. 

Actually I see that as part of the jigsaw .... the Russian trough slowly backing west and undercutting  the block with the Atlantic trough also coming east below .... the extended eps showing this solution again ....it’s not quick I’m afraid but hopefully the surface and lower layers can cool under a stagnant block for a week/ 10 days 

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Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside
4 minutes ago, ZK099 said:

If I remember correctly, modelling was all over the place in February as well, just before the SSW. With so much going on in the atmosphere, NWP is trying to get to grips with what's going on. Expect a lot of fluctuation in model output. Probably more pertinent to watch the strat forecast over the next few days, then take it from there. 

Another point- as someone else mentioned, we definitely don't want to see that cold go into Greece. As I've said, the model output is so volatile at the moment there's absolutely no point paying attention to it. However, when the block does set up, we really don't want the cold heading into Greece and this has been a common theme in recent years unfortunately. I'm not actually suggesting that will happen on this occasion, just something to look out for over the next few weeks because an SSW-related block can of course set up unfavourably. 

From what I remember it was quite a straight forward countdown from the unreliable  Maybe the spell skewed my memory...

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Bit late to the party, but running through the various 12z's and it certainly appears a corner has been turned following a turgid couple of days.  Just looking at the ECM 240, it just needs a tweak here and there and it could certainly deliver something of interest with cold building to the East.  

ECH1-240.GIF?18-0 ECH0-240.GIF?18-0

Maybe this is what the Met Office update (which is sensational by the way!) is alluding to?  

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
1 hour ago, ... said:

I'm impressed that you know exactly what's going to happen over the next 240 hours.  Maybe it's volatile because it is correctly detecting that the current atmospheric state is also volatile.

ECM is notorious for whole suite bias runs in certain circumstances. It has been rather unhelpful of late and despite its great verification when there is stability, it copes less with HP cells. The non-easterly episodes are a case in point.

The 12z op is a clear outlier, or at best in a tiny cluster (unusually common on ECM op runs when they should in theory not be). The D10 op compared to the mean:

ECM101-240.thumb.gif.dcd4b0983c3aa11f6943288382b90013.gifEDM101-240.thumb.gif.92ecd665691e1e3ba88d44ebb36f213b.gif

Major differences that can raise expectations!

Of course, when it gets it wrong it is usually showing trolling winter wonderland charts, and suddenly, despite this happening on a regular basis (short memories), its the vogue model!

Of course, as a broken clock will show, it may get it right now and then, but if I have learnt anything from ECM watching is that D7-10 it can go off on one; and second, it gets blocking height rises wrong a lot more than it gets it right, when the algorithms are fed change! That is why clusters are the best way to look at patterns after about D6, I will not be drawn into that D10 ECM nonsense ever again and I certainly recommend that policy to avoid drip fed disappointment.

This is of course just based on my own experience, and John, no there are no stats that I can show to prove it either way!

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
7 minutes ago, IDO said:

 

Of course, as a broken clock will show, it may get it right now and then, but if I have learnt anything from ECM watching is that D7-10 it can go off on one; and second, it gets blocking height rises wrong a lot more than it gets it right, when the algorithms are fed change! That is why clusters are the best way to look at patterns after about D6, I will not be drawn into that D10 ECM nonsense ever again and I certainly recommend that policy to avoid drip fed disappointment.

This is of course just based on my own experience, and John, no there are no stats that I can show to prove it either way!

Which model doesn’t go off on one at day 7-10?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It looks like becoming quieter between xmas and new year with the weather pattern becoming very slow moving as pressure rises according to the latest models so probably increasing frost and fog risk..where do we go from there?..hopefully as per the experts..into a much colder January with E'ly / NE'ly winds bringing wintry weather, especially to the east!!:santa-emoji:❄️:cold:

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