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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, johnholmes said:

I wonder what effect this will have, or not as the case may be?

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

What’s your thought on these GEFS John, a huge swing cold with some amazing NH profiles. A one off, or is the SSW being picked up on here do you think?

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The whole GEFS are, game on looking at these.

infact we have nearly half going BOOOOOOM

Thats very positive news Ali..

We do seem to be copping for a lot of crappy operationals for some reason..

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Thats very positive news Ali..

We do seem to be copping for a lot of crappy operationals for some reason..

A few day 11, awesome charts.

C54A3E20-2CF9-49E2-A86E-C2D5A512F5FC.png

87E99A0C-9C25-4172-862E-E9197EE18085.png

555BB826-887C-4A83-BF36-989769D789A4.png

73755F10-CED6-4B71-8425-B509FEFF94CE.png

14767497-B0CD-485F-BD25-A0900C95F3CC.png

EA9DA7DD-DF43-42A7-941F-E33F47F95559.png

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Easton Luna Boys Contributor

Easton Luna Boys

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
Posted
7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Time for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Warning, SSWW?

It should be renamed a sudden so what warming.

So despite some "excellent back ground signals" being trumpeted since mid November by some, the reality is a mild December hovering around 2c above the long term average, and we continue to sit under a Big Daddy High, lumbering from side to side but really not going anywhere fast. All we need is a slight lollop over to the right side and it becomes a bona fide Euro High. I'm afraid that any SSW, SSWWW, or an invasion by Putin would be rendered useless as it would be game over for January

We've been here many many times before and I really think that we need to be realistic about the prospects and put the rose tinted glasses away for a while. 

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
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Posted

Very good signs in this mornings GEFS output. 3 runs in a row now showing growing ens support for a mid month cold burst. Watch this space. Pacific ridging key to enabling WAA in North Atlantic. Cautious optimism, as per this graph for Humberside

19ADCA08-BA13-4D45-9312-5F6510955B59.gif

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

It should be renamed a sudden so what warming.

So despite some "excellent back ground signals" being trumpeted since mid November by some, the reality is a mild December hovering around 2c above the long term average, and we continue to sit under a Big Daddy High, lumbering from side to side but really not going anywhere fast. All we need is a slight lollop over to the right side and it becomes a bona fide Euro High. I'm afraid that any SSW, SSWWW, or an invasion by Putin would be rendered useless as it would be game over for January

We've been here many many times before and I really think that we need to be realistic about the prospects and put the rose tinted glasses away for a while. 

Who are these people you describe as some?

The more knowledgable who donate lots of time and effort to share their thoughts and ideas with us? With NO guarantee everything will fall into place for the UK.

I understand peoples frustrations, i really do, believe me, my location has seen little but rain and mild temps since November..

But i think we  need to be patient  i really do.

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
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Posted

Something like this is quite feasible:

tempresult_hnv4.gif   tempresult_vzb8.gif

Perb. 17. 

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WelfordRd Enthusiast

WelfordRd

Posted
  • Location: Hinckley
  • Location: Hinckley
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Posted (edited)

Some real doom mongers and moaners on here the last few days (especially today)!. I am not a "Mod" obviously but can these please use another thread???. Its great watching peoples commentary of the runs that come out and their knowledgeable opinions or views on it., however it keeps getting interrupted by people who just love a sarcastic or clever comment - Rant over (technically this should be on the rant thread!! lol)

Edited by WelfordRd
typo
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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Thats interesting. The mean chart GFS 06z at 240hrs

image.thumb.png.8b3d6d63976921898998e3d009f6c893.png

The ten day means have showed potential for some time, they're just not getting closer.

 

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS are a stonker

You always say feb that your not to bothered bout the ops if they wobble but as long as the ensembles look good and the GEFS are very good on the 6z .

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

the ops have been crud for weeks,maybe the ensembles can lead the way for a change

Agreed,but the weather has been crud too, an indication that the ops are leading the way over the ensembles?

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Devonshire Enthusiast

Devonshire

Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
Posted
31 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Happy New Year everyone!

 I’m giving this place a miss for the rest of the day before I get dragged into this extremely bizarre negativity!  

The clues are there! Wild swings in the output, GEFS members showing Hight rises to the North, SSWE unfolding as we speak! But whatever  :oldrolleyes:

Don't let the moaners get you down! (no snow flurries today, but a flurry of newly-ignored members getting me close to 22 pages of them now)! MODS - maybe 'the ignored' can be notified each time someone sets them to that status - or at least given stats as to how many people are ignoring them?!

I actually think the last couple weeks and upcoming couple weeks of model watching are the most interesting for a long while - looking to see how the different models handle the SSW and indeed how the SSW will play out. I particularly look forward to the posts of the several forum members who take time to put together thoughtful posts, we all know who they are: the few who nobody sets to 'ignore'!!!

I also agree, it is bizarre how some posters are nor only verging on calling winter over, but denying any taste of winter so far - even down in Devon this winter we have had several frosts, with snowfall up the road on higher Dartmoor, and several more frosts to come this week. Other more northerly/easterly members have had a proper taste.

Happy New Year - and may it be a frosty, snowy, chilly one in the not too far off future! I am most definitely not going to be lowering my expectations!

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
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Posted (edited)

One more post then!

D5E7EBBE-EC0A-438C-8CB4-F748837405F4.thumb.gif.445df490e5b196c45a6e541427172c9b.gif

find some negativity in that ☝️

Edited by karlos1983
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, mountain shadow said:

Sounds a bit more manyana manyana to me. A mid month change to cold becoming less and less likely I think.

Just sounds like the SSW is still causing issues with forecasts. Nothing to worry about just yet.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, karlos1983 said:

One more post then!

D5E7EBBE-EC0A-438C-8CB4-F748837405F4.thumb.gif.445df490e5b196c45a6e541427172c9b.gif

fimd some negativity in that ☝️

Best set of the season so far, prolonged -3/-5 is good. 

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Stonethecrows Enthusiast

Stonethecrows

Posted
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Posted
15 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:

Some real doom mongers and moaners on here the last few days (especially today)!. I am not a "Mod" obviously but can these please use another thread???. Its great watching peoples commentary of the runs that come out and their knowledgeable opinions or views on it., however it keeps getting interrupted by people who just love a sarcastic or clever comment - Rant over (technically this should be on the rant thread!! lol)

Amen to that. Such a shame, the interesting insights from the more knowledgeable posters is what drew me this thread but the wind up merchants are really beginning to spoilt it.

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legritter Accomplished

legritter

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
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Posted

Good morning gang , I am certainly looking forward to the next 9 weeks of meteorological winter and also March .just wondering when the main models really latched on to the cold weather last winter ,Feb March etc .I can remember a big night when HEY Presto we all went crackers . Keep the faith gang ,I have noticed as usuall ecm days 8 9 10 all over the place , STELLAS all round .

 

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