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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


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If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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34 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I can’t understand people’s frustrations, I really can’t. We’ve been through enough of these SSW’s to know it’s not a simple watch period. I don’t understand the despondency, perhaps it’s a form of reverse psychology I dunno ?‍♂️.

 

Tbh I’m surprised by this I mean it wouldn’t be so bad if we was waking up to crisp sunny mornings with frost but no we wake up every day grey dull and damp! It’s absolutely disgusting lol. This high just needs to catch a bus nw and quick

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Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

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I wish people stop moaning about the current quiet weather. Yes may be a little tedious but it won't last forever. It probably won't belong before we are talking  disruptive weather in on shape or form. We need to be glad that the weather over the festive period had been kind to millions of travellers this year and the quet conditions could well go on even into mid January.  Once mid latitude blocking takes place it's a job to shift but certainly nothing unusual with loads of examples of weather like this over ancient history. Anyway Happy New Year folks and here's hoping everyone gets the weather they want this coming year.!

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Just now, markw2680 said:

Tbh I’m surprised by this I mean it wouldn’t be so bad if we was waking up to crisp sunny mornings with frost but no we wake up every day grey dull and damp! It’s absolutely disgusting lol. This high just needs to catch a bus nw and quick

Exactly! If only we already had a taste of winter... but the only thing we have tasted is an overdose of mild. The plants in my balcony are already sprouting as if it is March!

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This 06z op seems a reasonable call based on current mean guidance ........that doesn’t mean I think it will be right but it’s certainly one of gfs’s better offerings given the background modelling 

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2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I wish people stop moaning about the current quiet weather. Yes may be a little tedious but it won't last forever. It probably won't belong before we are talking  disruptive weather in on shape or form. We need to be glad that the weather over the festive period had been kind to millions of travellers this year and the quet conditions could well go on even into mid January.  Once mid latitude blocking takes place it's a job to shift but certainly nothing unusual with loads of examples of weather like this over ancient history. Anyway Happy New Year folks and here's hoping everyone gets the weather they want this coming year.!

Said the same about early January, now it's mid-January. Unfortunately, historically, once high pressure sits across Western Europe it can be blimmin' hard to shift. Members mention the dreaded 'Bartlett' for good reason, those things can meander for weeks. Of course, I'd like to be wrong and hope I am and I'm sure I will be, but I feel much of January will be much the same. We look at the models for run-to-run and cross-model consistency - to some degree we have that with high pressure ridging/sitting over the UK for the next 10 days at least. The GFS (being the only freely available model post-10 days) has then consistently flattened out the high and reintroduced the Jet with the +240h ECM frame showing a distinct possibility of this happening as well. 

I admire people's optimism but despite the current background signals which we've drooled at for weeks (eg SSW), there's really not much interest.  

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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This 06z op seems a reasonable call based on current mean guidance ........that doesn’t mean I think it will be right but it’s certainly one of gfs’s better offerings given the background modelling 

It ends with no northern or even mid lat blocking in sight, and a seemingly increasingly well formed polar vortex.

This is the exact opposite of what the tele-connections brigade have been forecasting for a seeming eternity. 

 

 

 

Edited by Borei
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It would be great to know what Mogreps and Glosea are modelling at GFS FI range, hopefully something a bit more exiting than this. Still holding on whilst the METO keeps with the cold signal mid month. Still, it’s over 2 weeks till mid Jan and the models could completely do a U turn in the next few days, can’t keep saying that though ?

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4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Well the warming has made no impact on the trop, so no reason to think this will either!

If there is no change to the troposphere then that's also bad news (look at where we are now)

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GEFS at 180 are VERY interesting, plenty of heights up into Greenly unlike the Op. even the mean is much better than the Op. 

CB6F4517-55F8-4757-AB68-6EE754FEEF02.png

0AC89DAC-4843-4FB5-BA17-6BA456AF141B.png

3D306842-6839-4E42-8CCA-3B6BBB3B6204.png

EE3EE119-1D10-4D18-A0DA-20260D5E8161.png

 

Edited by Ali1977
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There do seem to be a few posts off respected posters who seem to be seeing things slightly different now regard the ssw and its impact.im know expert but I sense a change in the mood and backgund signals?hopefully the para will show a great nhp and bingo

Edited by swfc
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2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Control has much better ridging than the OP 

The whole GEFS are, game on looking at these.

infact we have nearly half going BOOOOOOM

Edited by Ali1977
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6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

WHATS GOING ON GEFS ?

Things may have taken a good turn 

70817E26-00E2-48DB-BCDD-95C88750093A.png

Check out the day 9 mean - that’s v v good 

7226293C-E302-4E20-A97B-F8DAA3541C64.png

No surprise that the majority of the good ensembles are starting to dismante the lobe of doom vortex piece over eastern Canada. Good set of GEFS, hopefully the 12s continue the trend.

Worth remembering the OP runs at a higher resolution so ensembles must be looked upon with caution!

Edited by Weathizard
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Just now, johnholmes said:

I wonder what effect this will have, or not as the case may be?

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

What’s your thought on these GEFS John, a huge swing cold with some amazing NH profiles. A one off, or is the SSW being picked up on here do you think?

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