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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Just now, mulzy said:

A NW flow is very possible even likely...

if we are relying on a NW flow, then that sums up winter 18/19 in a nutshell!

NW flow is good for us in the NW though so not all bad news. 

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Just now, mulzy said:

A NW flow is very possible even likely...

if we are relying on a NW flow, then that sums up winter 18/19 in a nutshell!

Yes, hoping against hope though that if we can just get a wedge up there that we can turn it into a proper Greenland block.

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The 00z ECM op went off on one right at the end in terms of how mild it went. It also went too low around the 6th when compared with the mean

london_ecmsd850.thumb.png.6579bd377d0dd0ac6c6cfd904f7610e1.png

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4 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

NW flow is good for us in the NW though so not all bad news. 

Aberdeenshire is NE surely?

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6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Aberdeenshire is NE surely?

It is but its so far North its well exposed to a NW flow. There is no large landmass to the NW.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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The cfs daily is showing nice charts. Shame its 550 odd hours away. 

Screenshot_20181231-082400_Meteociel.jpg

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1 hour ago, cyclonic happiness said:

But, when was the last time we had a potentially clear HP period this long showing in the charts? I seem to remember in 1991 there were two weeks of anticyclonic gloom, and we all know what followed.

I'm looking forward to almost 2 weeks, and maybe longer, of frost and fog.  Who knows, we may get stuck under an inversion, and have sub zero temps with 1" hoar frost. 

In fact, I'd take 1" hoar frost over any transient snowfall, it's possibly the most magical weather we ever get.

Now if the high stays 'dirty' that will be dissapointing

I agree with that totally , stuck under an area of HP has its benefits for sure 

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8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Aberdeenshire is NE surely?

We live on the Isle of Lewis. Thought I changed my profile???

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1 minute ago, minus 9 said:

The cfs daily is showing nice charts. Shame its 550 odd hours away. 

Screenshot_20181231-082400_Meteociel.jpg

To be fair though, thats a more realistic timeframe, i think and have done for a while now, that 15th is unreasonable to think those real frigid charts can occur, not saying it can't turn cold enough for some wintriness by then though.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be fair though, thats a more realistic timeframe, i think and have done for a while now, that 15th is unreasonable to think those real frigid charts can occur, not saying it can't turn cold enough for some wintriness by then though.

Give it time. Patience is the key this winter. 

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10 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

We live on the Isle of Lewis. Thought I changed my profile???

What a lovely place , not much fluctuation in temps by the looks of things , is it good for Snow ?

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20 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The UK high bore fest continues.  Without high latitude blocking, the hunt for cold will end poorly. Ext EPS back to showing low heights to our east and north - a poor signal for deep cold.

Whatever the background signals suggest the NWP *continue* to be poor for cold. Hopefully this will change but people need to lower their expectations.

The extended eps not too bad for continuity but no doubt flatter than yeteterdays run to our west with systems likely to head in from the nw rather than get beyond the meridian before being absorbed into  the broad Euro trough .......struggle to avoid warm sectors with that mean ..... had a chance with yesterday’s ...

the ec spreads at days 9/10 still have a griceland ridge ....... hopes pinned on that, otherwise the outlook to mid month looks like a slow sinking block as the Atlantic gradually comes nw/se into the scrussian trough backing slowly west .....thereafter I assume the idea is heights build to our nw .....ec 46 week 3 tonight to cover that though last issue weeks 2/3 had the Atlantic trough too deep so no guarantees it won’t look on dodgy ground come the overnight output!  

the hemispheric pieces of the jigsaw are falling into place but not in the right place for us next week or two ...... however, maybe it isn’t a bad thing for the Newfoundland chunk of low heights to be displaced there now rather than beyond the mid jan downwelling ..........

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Groundhog Day..... not the models but the daily morning negative posts! 

C012A977-D38A-46C1-9731-B80E543F9674.thumb.gif.de947a8237f19b9701182622920054a9.gif

huge scatter on the GEFS ENS starting earlier. 

7C508AFC-2FCE-407E-B875-45608D2C7713.thumb.gif.105c4618a3274b33e5b0e8c8c32bdd05.gif

much to be positive about! See you next year! ?

 

PPN spikes being pushed back further and further , the Atlantic is having no joy 

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It all goes pear shaped quickly upstream . Not enough phasing with the two jets and flatter than last night . The ECM is atrocious .

The rest are hardly inspiring . We’ve hit the wall this morning !

The wait continues .......

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11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Groundhog Day..... not the models but the daily morning negative posts! 

C012A977-D38A-46C1-9731-B80E543F9674.thumb.gif.de947a8237f19b9701182622920054a9.gif

huge scatter on the GEFS ENS starting earlier. 

7C508AFC-2FCE-407E-B875-45608D2C7713.thumb.gif.105c4618a3274b33e5b0e8c8c32bdd05.gif

much to be positive about! See you next year! ?

 

Yes there are a few moderately cold flatliners in the medium term on there, i would suggest to have any chance of cold in that 192 (ish) range though, that it is make or brake over the next few runs, they would need to be a majority cluster in the next few runs, long odds against.

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Those who cant remember a high pressure spell lasting this long have short memories. Winters 92, 06, 13 and 15 all had spells lasting in excess of two weeks.

I renain happy with the output given that the pattern change in the pacific has always been flagged for 11th-13th and not before.

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Very uninspiring output for sustained cold, ax it has been for ages. Any flickers of hope keep getting snuffed out.

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No good will come from this uk high. I’m not normally a fan of the zonal reset but on this occasion it would probably only be temporary. Regardless of what’s being shown I still think the eventual demise will be through it sinking south so my thoughts are that we might as well get on with it. Unfortunately though it’s clearly going to be very slow and painful process as were nailed on for 10 days and could easily see that time span lengthen. 

Looking through the gefs this morning there are some northerlies in there but nothing convincing or at an early enough timescale to warrant much interest. There is obviously scatter in the later timescales but ignoring the odd rogue member the notable thing is the lack of any convincing signal for Northen heights. Indeed the opposite is true.

 

 

Edited by Jason M
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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s interesting....I just saw a very informative piece on twitter which explained how important our trop ridge is wrt the split which occurs in the strat vortex ...... that split which will allow a greeny high IF/WHEN upstream buckles to allow it ........

Yeah I don’t want our ridge going anywhere other than N/NW thanks ? 

side note, almost get a reversal at 30hpa on yesterday’s ECMWF Strat charts

5E63E2FE-9692-4D09-9E05-DB9531A1F6C3.thumb.gif.88312c11f0931cee952a3ea54f55f628.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s interesting....I just saw a very informative piece on twitter which explained how important our trop ridge is wrt the split which occurs in the strat vortex ...... that split which will allow a greeny high IF/WHEN upstream buckles to allow it ........

Makes sense to me..

Personally i'm expecting  the 12zs will be much better later today..(And Exeter will remain 'onside' prior to that).

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