Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[GeordieX9v]

Nothing particularly inspiring about that ECM run

[winterof79]

It's happening.....

Look at the Polar profile splitting from 12z to 00z

00z

12z

It's about the bigger picture heights will gain run by run on ECM

 

Edited December 31, 2018 by winterof79

[northwestsnow]

Well its all about opinions but im hoping 12z is better than the 00z run from EC..

[Spah1]

The bore fest continues 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

The bore fest continues 

Lets see how EC det looks against its ens..

But yes , a dissappointing det run for sure..

Edited December 31, 2018 by northwestsnow

[KTtom]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well its all about opinions but im hoping 12z is better than the 00z run from EC..

Good consistancy with the operationals  overnight....they're all Crap!

The straw this morning is the ens are trending the right way with more heading towards sub -10 than previous. Generally, looks like a northerly is more likely than an easterly for our first shot of cold. Whether it arrives before I dust off my Speedo's is another thing!

Edited December 31, 2018 by KTtom

[swfc]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Lets see how EC det looks against its ens..

But yes , a dissappointing det run for sure..

Yes  NW  EC seems to be in limbo for what seems an eternity!! hopefully the new year will bring a better outlook in regard the nhp

Edited December 31, 2018 by swfc

[feb1991blizzard]

I don't agree with these 'splits' on the tropospheric output, they are tame, this is a proper split.

[feb1991blizzard]

And if things don't improve quickly, then us long suffering cold fans will be enduring a Shawn Christopher situation on a regular basis.

 

Edited December 31, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[That ECM]

On 29/12/2018 at 16:53, lamppost watcher said:

 

 

   Could it be that if this mean was near reality come the time that the cards fell wrong for us this time with the east side of US benefiting? 

I have no idea why it has attached lamppost post

Edited December 31, 2018 by That ECM

[cyclonic happiness]

20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And if things don't improve quickly, then us long suffering cold fans will be enduring a Shawn Christopher situation on a regular basis.

SNIPPED

 

But, when was the last time we had a potentially clear HP period this long showing in the charts? I seem to remember in 1991 there were two weeks of anticyclonic gloom, and we all know what followed.

I'm looking forward to almost 2 weeks, and maybe longer, of frost and fog.  Who knows, we may get stuck under an inversion, and have sub zero temps with 1" hoar frost. 

In fact, I'd take 1" hoar frost over any transient snowfall, it's possibly the most magical weather we ever get.

Now if the high stays 'dirty' that will be dissapointing

Edited December 31, 2018 by Blessed Weather
Snipped out repetitive vid clip

[snowfish1]

21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And if things don't improve quickly, then us long suffering cold fans will be enduring a Shawn Christopher situation on a regular basis.

SNIPPED

 

Sounds dreadful please charts show something I can't stand that dross 

Edited December 31, 2018 by Blessed Weather
Snipped out repetitive vid clip

[snowangel32]

If the UK gets any higher its going to have to get the munchies out. I have never known a high persist for so long. Guarantee a Greenland high gets blown away like a fart in the wind. But a UK high is seemingly invincible our very own snow shield.

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, snowangel32 said:

. I have never known a high persist for so long. 

Earlier this year during the early summer?

 

[snowfish1]

7 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

If the UK gets any higher its going to have to get the munchies out. I have never known a high persist for so long. Guarantee a Greenland high gets blown away like a fart in the wind. But a UK high is seemingly invincible our very own snow shield.

When I suggested that the high was a horror story persistently hanging around on the previous runs, I got blasted lol since the alternative was low pressure wind and rain and it was therefore preferential by those wanting snow and cold.... Obviously we don't want wind and rain..... You can't win.... Just need the high to sod off west or elsewhere where it can be useful for cold snowy incursions. West or North. 

Edited December 31, 2018 by snowfish1

[Newberryone]

Wouldn’t you just know it, just when The Express is at it again with their predictions for a Jan whiteout, reality paints a very different picture as in the latest Ecm run....

A paragraph from the  express updated just a couple of hours ago.   “ Heavy snow is predicted to hit early in 2019. Bookmakers have slashed the odds on snow falling during January and are predicting the coldest winter on record. New Year's Eve and New Year's Day are, however, both expected to be mild with “outbreaks of drizzle”.

[snowangel32]

7 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

When I suggested that the high was a horror story persistently hanging around on the previous runs, I got blasted lol since the alternative was low pressure wind and rain and it was therefore preferential by those wanting snow and cold.... Obviously we don't want wind and rain..... You can't win.... Just need the high to sod off west or elsewhere where it can be useful for cold snowy incursions. West or North. 

Yh have to admit there's no way I invisioned it sticking to us like a limpet for so long. We just have to hope the SSW can pull it of us and open up the gates to the promised land. Yh seems like you made a good call early on mate.

[The PIT]

9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Earlier this year during the early summer?

 

Rare in Winter though. Wouldn't be surprised it lasted well into mid January. Just jiggling around mostly in the wrong place.

[snowangel32]

1 minute ago, Newberryone said:

Wouldn’t you just know it, just when The Express is at it again with their predictions for a Jan whiteout, reality paints a very different picture as in the latest Ecm run....

A paragraph from the  express updated just a couple of hours ago.   “ Heavy snow is predicted to hit early in 2019. Bookmakers have slashed the odds on snow falling during January and are predicting the coldest winter on record. New Year's Eve and New Year's Day are, however, both expected to be mild with “outbreaks of drizzle”.

Hey i think we should have whip round and get the express there own weather model. We would be guaranteed Boom charts every day lol. But tbh they are very irresponsible and live in there own world of fiction.

[mulzy]

The UK high bore fest continues.  Without high latitude blocking, the hunt for cold will end poorly. Ext EPS back to showing low heights to our east and north - a poor signal for deep cold.

Whatever the background signals suggest the NWP *continue* to be poor for cold. Hopefully this will change but people need to lower their expectations.

Edited December 31, 2018 by mulzy

[northwestsnow]

Suspect the op maybe one of the less appealing of the suite looking at the mean at 168..

 

 

 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The UK high bore fest continues.  Without high latitude blocking, the hunt for cold will end poorly. Ext EPS back to showing low heights to our east and north - a poor signal for deep cold.

Whatever the background signals suggest the NWP *continue* to be poor for cold. Hopefully this will change but people need to lower their expectations.

Looked good for a NW / N flow on the eps at 240 for me, obviously it didn't materialise then?

[DanDorsetUK]

The block formation near the UK is getting the green light from the strat above. Once the Pacific to N. America flow slows down and buckles, the direction of wave breaking in the Atlantic will shift equatorward. That's when the NAO tanks. Look at @antmasiello posts on Twitter his posts are very informative!

[mountain shadow]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

 Ext EPS back to showing low heights to our east and north - a poor signal for deep cold.

 

That is bad news indeed, I was hoping the ECM op was an outlier.

Anyone know which teleconnection is not playing ball given all the other fantastic background signals?

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looked good for a NW / N flow on the eps at 240 for me, obviously it didn't materialise then?

A NW flow is very possible even likely...

if we are relying on a NW flow, then that sums up winter 18/19 in a nutshell!