Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[karlos1983]

Beatuiful 

Fair few members with nice ridging into Greenland ?

[Kentspur]

8 minutes ago, Don said:

The European models are sticking by their guns with the northern blocking theme for mid to late winter.  However, the other models have rather backed away from a blocked scenario in this update.

I commented on this on Twitter as although it seems this way if you watch the video when he shows the European models they all say forecast- 1st December. Unlike the mild looking Asian and American updates, Gavin liked my comment but didn't reply so I'm sceptical about the video, just a thought. 

[weirpig]

The difference at such an early timeframe on the para is stark.   somethings afoot 

[Dancerwithwings]

Some cold to very cold members towards the end 

 

 

[Mike Poole]

Up we go on the FV3 T216, all kicking off now!

Clean flow should provide more WAA, but at T240 looks like the PV is fighting back, here

Really need something cross polar, and there isn't on this run.

Edited December 30, 2018 by Mike Poole

[ITSY]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Up we go on the FV3 T216, all kicking off now!

Clean flow should provide more WAA still.

Indeed, check these out. (Caveat: I actually doubt the likelihood of these scenarios given the experts seem to be edging away from SSW-induced cold but heyho, would love to be proved wrong) 

 

[Tim Bland]

Slight change from GFSp ! Almost as inconsistent as it’s older version! 

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Indeed, check these out. (Caveat: I actually doubt the likelihood of these scenarios given the experts seem to be edging away from SSW-induced cold but heyho, would love to be proved wrong) 

 

Which experts are that exactly?  Many more ensemble members going for something very interesting in your post, compared to my earlier one all at T276!  Stick with it, the flow is with us!

Edited December 30, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

Couple more op runs to finish a day on which the pendulum is swinging back towards a cold outbreak in mid January rather than later in my opinion, GEM 12z T240, northerly with reload potential here:

JMA T264 with an ambitious proposition to try to shove virtually all the purples to the eastern side, good luck with that, we're rooting for you! I expect that might fail if we saw the next bit...but interesting nonetheless.  

Edited December 31, 2018 by Mike Poole

[GeordieX9v]

Certainly an improved GEFS compared to the previous set.

[smhouston]

I can certainly see why this is a hunt for cold thread, should maybe even have hopecasting added. The fact people are getting excited at what charts are being produced over a week away shows how far we really are from actually getting something. 

When you see wintry theme snapped away within 48 hours of arrival despite complete model consensus several years ago it teaches you a very valuable lesson. Until all models are showing the same then the model showing your least favoured outcome will be correct, and even if they show the same, nothing is a given until it's happened. GFS being completely annihilated should be done so at your peril. No one model is correct, even 24 hours out the closest model will not be 100% what happens

Unfortunately doesn't look like anything of note and hope will be shifted to mid to late January. Although, seems to be coming a pretty common theme in our winters

[Don]

39 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I commented on this on Twitter as although it seems this way if you watch the video when he shows the European models they all say forecast- 1st December. Unlike the mild looking Asian and American updates, Gavin liked my comment but didn't reply so I'm sceptical about the video, just a thought. 

Were the Asian and American models updated later, I wonder?  

Looking at it again, apart from the CFSv2, the other non-euro models have forecast dates of December 1st, just December or nothing at all.

Edited December 31, 2018 by Don

[Snowy L]

26 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Which experts are that exactly?  Many more ensemble members going for something very interesting in your post, compared to my earlier one all at T276!  Stick with it, the flow is with us!

Mostly BBC people who want their switch to meteogroup to not have been a resounding failure so are taking this opportunity to go against the met office forecast. They know there is a 33% chance of SSWs not delivering so it's a risk worth taking saying it won't downwell with just the GEFS stratosphere model as their back up.

[ITSY]

34 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Which experts are that exactly?  Many more ensemble members going for something very interesting in your post, compared to my earlier one all at T276!  Stick with it, the flow is with us!

I’ve seen a few sceptical posts on twitter from the likes of Ventrice, Hugo, Fawkes and others casting doubt on extent of SSW downward propagation - alongside evident frustration from the likes of Catocol in this place (who was exceptionally accurate with predicting the BFTE earlier this year). That said, I gather winds have now reversed at 30hpa while the Pacific MJO pattern (affecting AAM tendency) may markedly increase Blocking chances by mid January - which is perhaps what the 18Z is demonstrating. Basically, I’m now in a dangerous cycle of self doubt about next month but am still hoping the pub run has, unusually, illuminated the path ahead. Let’s see if the 00Zs continue the trend! The Meto forecast makes me optimistic, the fact that it has remained in the far reaches of their 30dayer for 3 weeks makes me less so and reinforces my knagging scepticism. Either way, this is the hunt for cold - we must Keep the faith comrades! ...(but cautiously, if it can go wrong it will go wrong for our little island) 

Edited December 31, 2018 by ITSY

[Day_9]

2 hours ago, Stormeh said:

It’s nearly BOOM time..

Is there anywhere I can go to learn how to read these please?

[Duane S.]

Surely at least a little boom goes out to the 18z ens for their late night performance? 

Finally some signs of rampant and chaotic fluidity in the NH troposphere. 

A variety of interesting members...

Edited December 31, 2018 by s4lancia

[matt111]

With all the talk about the experts this evening, especially the BBC, this is a quote direct from a BBC source. 

Quote

MeteoGroup seasonal forecast agrees with UKMO (and effectively has done since November, albeit MeteoGroup were always leaning to colder risks after mid-Jan and not before) and indeed only in last few days updated to firm-up a heightened risk of cold outbreaks later Jan on into Feb

Plenty posted in here this evening with no substance at all.

[Mucka]

Still some big changes in the output out to day 5, this time comparing today's GFS 00z with yesterdays.

What it will all amount to remains to be seen.

Edited December 31, 2018 by Mucka

[Weathizard]

T132 not without interest...

 

  UKMO a little dissappointing though

Edited December 31, 2018 by Weathizard

[GeordieX9v]

Certainly wouldn't mind a link up of those heights.

[Cheshire Freeze]

34 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Still some big changes in the output out to day 5, this time comparing today's GFS 00z with yesterdays.

What it will all amount to remains to be seen.

We're inching closer. You can see the split in the trop vortex around Greenland manifesting run by run

[GeordieX9v]

Not to be this time but the output is definitely getting better!

[Mucka]

Yes trending the right way.

Just another snapshot comparison of how quickly the output is moving with GFSp yesterday and today.

Edited December 31, 2018 by Mucka

[ArHu3]

 

Almost BOOM @198h on the parallel run

[GeordieX9v]

P12 not far from getting -15s into the NE.