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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

Posted Images

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

This is the latest from the NCEP discussion for NY State:

The Thursday through Friday time frame continues to feature a low
confidence forecast, as model guidance showing considerable
disagreement with regards to timing and track of a potential
significant storm system approaching from the west. Main challenge
is how models are handling potential phasing of northern/southern
stream energy.
It appears the ECMWF continues to be most consistent,
indicating a progressive upper level low tracking east into the
southern Appalachians by Thursday night, then phasing with a
northern stream trough on Friday inducing cyclogenesis near the
southern New England coast. The GFS and CMC are also now indicating
phasing and coastal development, although have this occurring much
earlier (Thursday night as opposed to Friday). The GFS is depicting
a more southerly track and thus lighter QPF in our area, while the
CMC has a track closer to the ECMWF (although much earlier).

Will lean towards the ECMWF due to better consistency.

What they're talking about can be seen here, the southern jet in red and northern arm in black:

ECH1-120.thumb.gif.2dee20274f2826e5e363c2eb16c4e3c3.gif

 

Both these jets phase over the ne USA helping to develop the deeper low pressure shown in red below.

This is important as this effects the movement of the PV lobe, generaly in these situations as the low then phases with that it causes  a pivot action which helps to pull that lobe further to the nw. The amplification ahead of the low develops that little high in black. Ideally we want the low even more amplified than the ECM but its a start.

ECH1-144.thumb.gif.a4efdae1af4057b24fbfb7248c143afa.gif

 

It all points to week two being a good one, as hinted at by most runs, aside from a rogue one here an there as to be expected. Before all that we at least have a day or two of Northerly influence as we hit 2019.

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55 minutes ago, BARRY said:

As there is a shut down of American government services has this any effect on the GFs output

I wish they would shut the GFS down for a week or two.

I think it would do a world of good for the forum's collective sanity!

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Now that mid January is in range of the models, I must say it's looking potentially very interesting from a cold / snow lovers perspective according to the GEFS 6z postage stamps!....I have a feeling there will be plenty of wonderful output for coldies as we go further into the new year.?❄️

snow_378_ps_slp.png

850temp_378_ps_slp.png

850tempuk_378_ps_slp.png

2m_maxtemp_366_ps_slp.png

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.96137dae93665966e30d5160b87c990d.png

Lift - off?

Beginning to look that way northwestsnow by New years day some real eye candy will be showing I think. The ECM will lead the way as your chart illustrates. The high slowly but surely edging northwards everything is in place we just await the trigger 

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1 minute ago, seabreeze86 said:

Beginning to look that way northwestsnow by New years day some real eye candy will be showing I think. The ECM will lead the way as your chart illustrates. The high slowly but surely edging northwards everything is in place we just await the trigger 

We need @Man With Beard to explain the Icelandic clusters but seems 40% continue boring, 20% Scandinavian blocking 28% Greenland blocking 12% with the block just misplaced for me in the Netherlands

 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018123000_264.

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Good afternoon peeps ?

Hope you all are ok and having a relaxing Sunday afternoon. Can't believe it's the last day of this year tomorrow, how quickly has the year whizzed past. I was going to post yesterday but to be honest I just had a sinking feeling in my heart from all the outputs that I went away to refresh.

so here we are still search for our snow. Rather s from day here in Walthamstow today not a glimmer of the sun. I must admit from what I am seeing from today's posts looks like a glimmer of hope is beginning to show, are we on the cusp of something special. Having said this we are still in the unknown and what the weather is about to do in the coming weeks is anyone's guess. The big question mark that is making me scratch my head is what is this high going to do. It could either be our sincere saviour and help the weather deliver our goods or it could be a heartbreaker and herald a pattern that we don't want to see going further into January.

i think we have only started moving on this rollercoaster the coming week is going to be tense and at times it's going to have us at the edge. Let's just now think positively and hope everything is on our side and hold our heads up. 

On s finishing note back in Feb/March it's the ECM that led the way and the others followed persuitr can it happen s second time. We live in hope 

our search for our winter wonderland continues 

take care for now all stay safe

kind regards ????

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Plenty of changes to come. This is a big difference in the ICON from 00 to 12z at just 120 hrs

iconnh-0-120.png?30-12iconnh-0-132.png?30-00

Strange, it doesn't show the right image on the thumbnail until you click it.

Edited by Mucka
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7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Plenty of changes to come. This is a big difference in the ICON from 00 to 12z at just 120 hrs

iconnh-0-120.png?30-12iconnh-0-132.png?30-00

That could be because of the 12h time difference 

 

Edit:you probably copied the wrong links both are from 12z

 

 

Edited by ArHu3
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Models holding the high pressure firmly in place - rather a sinking high, it looks like it will stay in situ for quite some time, meaning low level cold surface air, plenty of frost, sunshine and possible freezing fog, so feeling more like winter to start 2019. 

I said yesterday GFS has a habit at sniffing out a northerly first, and the 6Z is showing one with heights advecting westwards into the mid atlantic - this is very plausible evolution, provided we maintain heights over or slightly to the north of the UK - as indicated by ECM today.

Whilst I doubt it will be a rapid trigger to an eventual much colder set up, what it will allow is for the jet to align on a more NW-SE path, bringing bouts of wind and rain, and wintry precipitation in the north (goes with the Met Office prediction), the trigger will though no doubt come from heights ridging sufficiently through the mid atlantic just when we see the PV shot to bits, heights over the Pole quickly linking hands, and the jet forced well to the south.

I won't be surprised to see the GFS 12z sink heights again, and dispel the northerly, only to serve up the 6Z scenario today in future runs, it will keep dropping the northerly idea, but then come back to it eventually and hold onto it.

Edited by damianslaw
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7 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

That could be because of the 12h time difference 

 

Edit:you probably copied the wrong links both are from 12z

 

 

 

No the links are correct with correlating times and the one on the right shows 00z when you click it for me, does it show 12z for you when clicked?

Edited by Mucka
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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

 

No the links are correct and the one on the right shows 00z when you click it for me, does it show 12z for you when clicked?

I see January 4th 1300 and January 5th 0100 both from today's 12z when I click on them 

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40 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

P7 (GEFS 6z) pretty please with a cherry on top!!!?❄️:cold:

7_366_2mtmpmax.png

7_366_500mb.png

ooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.jpg

The above could well be the eventual pattern - but might take a slight while longer to get there -- a matter of days.. 

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3 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

I see January 4th 1300 and January 5th 0100 both from today's 12z when I click on them 

LOL that has me doubly stumped then. They both show 4th Jan 1300 for me. Must be a browser cache thing or something.

I suppose I should use the archive from 00z instead like thus.

iconnh-0-120.png?30-12iconnh-0-132.png?01-00

Edited by Mucka
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26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ICON better again compared to 6z-

image.thumb.png.ebf90e2cdb2b416e7bf6788e0f0b9d54.png

Better in what way? 

I thought this ridge was just going to sit there until the proper amplification post ssw. 

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