Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    1 minute ago, evans1892 said:

    Some brutal uppers digging further south there albeit at 384.

    gfsnh-1-384.png

    Ooh you tease...i was getting excited until i see it is 14th January....in model time that is not believable.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 5.1k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

    After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

    Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    17 hours ago, winterof79 said:

    ICON had a stab at the very low a few days ago.Timings a little out.

    I will copy my post 

    Screenshot_20181229-084608_Chrome.jpg

    Well it seems that I got excited over nothing, not really any sign of the Op runs or any other model picking up the baton,

    My bad I guess.

    I honestly thought that was going to be something that I could later refer to, all clever like, but other than the pattern being a little sharper in FI it seems it was red herring that I fell for.

    If nothing develops through today the egg on my face will take a little wiping, but that's what you get for second guessing the weather, especially when you go against the climatologcal norm .

    One day I will accept Britain is mild wet and windy in winter - but not before today's runs.?

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    GFS not playing ball, it's wrong though according to 'big guns'

    gfs-0-186.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Can’t post charts this morning but If you compare the 18z to the 0z it’s much more amplified early on, shame the lobe of death keeps spitting lows out, the jet the culprit and pressure is too high over Europe.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Thankfully GFS/UKMO at odds at 144..

    UKMO offers some hope moving forward, need the low to become cut off though..

    GFS is well, not even worth contemplating ..

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
    8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Thankfully GFS/UKMO at odds at 144..

    UKMO offers some hope moving forward, need the low to become cut off though..

    GFS is well, not even worth contemplating ..

    I would of thought we would be seing cold charts creeping up by now... There were strong Signals for Northern Blocking this winter and so far doing anything but do that!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
    5 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

    I would of thought we would be seing cold charts creeping up by now... There were strong Signals for Northern Blocking this winter and so far doing anything but do that!

    Still think it's too early. New years eve would be my bet!! 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    I'd imagine the ECM at 144 won't go without comment...

    ECM1-144.GIF?30-12

    Well my comment is that last night it was 'off on one' with regards to the depth of cold into Europe. Unless this morning is an outlier. For comparison. 

    ECE0-144.gif

    ECE0-168 (1).gif

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    20 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

    Still think it's too early. New years eve would be my bet!! 

    Remember the big picture apart from the UK though, no guarantee of an immediate direct hit to team GB. The very end of the 00z GFS shows intense cold spilling into Europe. And that happens to be the touted mid January time frame. 

    gfseu-1-384.png

    Edited by Seasonality
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    EC better ?

    Nothing like GFS thankfully..

    The Goofus is making me do this pretty much every run lately. 

    source.gif

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    See the cut off low i mentioned on ukmo?

    Its there near the azores on EC..

    No Atlantic on EC..

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Much better from the ECM, unfortunately we just don’t have an idea what’s going on with such model variability 

    104C399E-2D2D-48A9-BD4B-9EB7FD240474.png

    Although im sure the ECM is more accurate ?

    CDD2270A-5D33-4001-8A92-AAD158325EB6.png

    Edited by Ali1977
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    Well for me its hold your breath time with the key date having been from the 1st as to wether we get a response down to lower levels! Still awaiting full confirmation of this yet. By the end of next week we should know one way or another. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Cmon EC be right!!!

    Could things be finally beginning to turn for long suffering coldies?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    Ok ECM. I do like this one. 

    ECE1-240 (3).gif

     

    not-bad-thanks-obama-your-presidency-was-6401274.jpg

    Edited by Seasonality
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
    1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

    Interesting day 10 ECM... 

    BA719C88-AB82-4B92-BA54-D5A6A46FA271.png

    Yes, certainly 00z ECM heading in the right direction there. Positive heights gaining more traction, further north.

    Regards,

    Tom.  :hi:

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Cmon EC be right!!!

    Could things be finally beginning to turn for long suffering coldies?

    yeah much better from ECM ,if it’s correct this time then the performance  of the gfs has been absolutely tragic,and it’s not worth even bothering to look at again.

    675D7A82-0FEB-4219-902C-02E59166DBA2.png

    3C0DA978-24A9-40C9-906E-15971CE5EE86.png

    B36EF0A7-148C-4215-AFCB-F6257E9993D7.png

    A38AF971-BAAF-4C22-9553-EC281F652D5F.png

    B028241E-1FF8-4D38-B97E-50125DF76594.png

    043B6915-5879-4BA5-939B-846574C82277.png

    Edited by SLEETY
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    I see how the ECM avoids the UK flattening and it is rather precarious:

    ECM1-144.thumb.gif.fb03d23ff16f1127395505f0059a8997.gif  T168ECM1-168.thumb.gif.6995892e32511418e88243332cedf8be.gif

    At T144 we can see the next wave of heights (SW corner) cut through the trough with a surface high and parcel of heights building above the current incumbent High. With the cut off upper low then reinforcing the UK high. This is quite fine mesoscale modelling at this range and has support within the GEFS, though they favour the wave not cutting the trough, thus giving the lower heights to the north more room to slowly sink the UK high. We can see from last night's ECM mean that the op option is probably not the main cluster:

    EDM1-240_fbl4.GIF

    We have to hope the ECM is simply better at that range for that fine detail!

    As for the background strat developments. All seem to be going to plan for mid-Jan onwards. How the UK will be affected is the big question?

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers!
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

    Lots of overnight posts moved to the chat, moans, banter and ramps thread. Folk coming on here this morning would not have wanted to wade through pages of off-topic posts before finding information on what the models are showing. If your post is missing it's here:

     

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    10 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

    EC getting ready to amplify into the cavernous stratospheric void.. 

    Always fun to see the black holes on meteociel... Usually the 00z is less extreme than the 12z , makes tonight's viewing interesting..

     

    Eps slightly more amplified up to 240 as well.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
    • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
    • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
    • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...