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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Ensemble means from GEFS and GEFS(P) still good for -AO from 11th/12th. The question then is whether events between Canada and the uk allow us to benefit.

    That could be all down to how wide the split is in the stratosphere.

    -AO all but guaranteed, -NAO far from......

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

    After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

    Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    JN6-5.GIF?29-12

     

    This is the straw we have to grasp, and it looks good enough (not quite as impressive as last Winter though) could be 3 or 4 weeks before this propagates down.

    We are kind of desperate for a change now. 

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    Posted
  • Location: surrey
  • Location: surrey
    5 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    JN6-5.GIF?29-12

     

    This is the straw we have to grasp, and it looks good enough (not quite as impressive as last Winter though) could be 3 or 4 weeks before this propagates down.

    We are kind of desperate for a change now. 

    Really? is this the first warming or the second?

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    23 hours ago, Nick F said:

     

    Sorry can't delete above..

    Alas, wish I had stayed away from model watching over the whole christmas period, as it really is like watching paint dry this christmas - high pressure just moving around like it is in a washing machine, going nowhere.. 

    As others have said - if the effects of the SSW are not to be felt until at least 2 weeks later (by 14/15 Jan at earliest), then that gives the models a whole 10 days more of time before they begin to show the possible effects within the reliable - so not until about 8/9 Jan - can those hunting for cold withstand two more weeks of the models being less than convinced at least in the reliable.. probably not.

    I expect this thread will be full of much impatience in the opening days of January - many people writing off winter posts etc.. wish I was going on holiday for a couple of weeks... as I will quickly grow tired of such posts.

    In the meantime, its a case of watching the models show a slow painful death for the current high pressure, with I suspect the GFS going into full on zonal atlantic turbo charge for the period 8/9 - 15 Jan, the ECM holding the high in place for an eternity.

    GFS is not without interest in fantasy land - mid atlantic heights and a northerly - this could be the eventual trigger to the cold later in January, with heights merging with heights over the Pole. It has a tendency to spot long term trends well beyond the reliable, ditch them, bring them back close to the medium term, do a quick u turn, then hold with them just within the reliable - I do rate it when it comes to developments to our NW, and it is often the first model to sniff out a northerly and height rises over Greenland, ECM does far better with scandi highs/ scandi troughs and siberian high advection - just my observations over many years of watching the models.

     

     

     

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, london-snow said:

    Really? is this the first warming or the second?

    Thats practically an analysis chart from today.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    9 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    JN6-5.GIF?29-12

     

    This is the straw we have to grasp, and it looks good enough (not quite as impressive as last Winter though) could be 3 or 4 weeks before this propagates down.

    We are kind of desperate for a change now. 

    This one's even better??

    image.thumb.png.345522dd9299de24b3360e1f0231847f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
    33 minutes ago, More Snow said:

    well the latest bbc weather forecast was total dung. she said winds from the north west at least 3 times when the graphics clearly showed north or north east winds. 

    You forgot the bit about the sinking high which wasn't shown by the graphics.

    GFS beginning to follow ECMs lead in keeping the high in control. The exact place where the high ends up will decide whether we get a cold blast or mild air over the top.

    Edited by lorenzo
    removing off topic content
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    Posted
  • Location: Stunning Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Stunning Shropshire
    1 minute ago, The PIT said:

    You forgot the bit about the sinking high which wasn't shown by the graphics.

    GFS beginning to follow ECMs lead in keeping the high in control. The exact place where the high ends up will decide whether we get a cold blast or mild air over the top.

    Has the GFS not kept the limpet HP over us for all eternity in some runs already? eg the earlier run today for example! 

    image.thumb.png.7de36101b8904ffc8b9a72e42efed4c2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I cannot understand how some of you are going off-topic so fast? It's not as if the thread is moving fast due to lots of posts!

    I have hidden numerous ones. Don't take it personally, they are just not the place for them to be. So please, can we get back to normal?

    Thanks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    I think we should buy stakes in this high pressure. GFS smelling the coffee and gradually dropping the mobile Atlantic. 

    Good chance the only cold we will see will be air trapped into the high pressure and possible inversions.

     

    Edited by The PIT
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Hope I'm not going to get into trouble with the mods, but here is a weather chart!!!!

    Anyway, out to 216 and the 18z is showing more amplification over the UK vs 12z.  Small differences, but maybe the GFS is starting to get a handle on things?  Maybe a better day tomorrow?

    image.thumb.png.64d83ef9d0b42c901b6538d4b050d8fe.png  image.thumb.png.2f349f1eff7f3f3b526a653f5759daf3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    38 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    That's the warming now, today.

    Thanks Eddie ?

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Is GFS thinking about splitting the PV?

    It looks a very strong PV one has to say..

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    That lobe of the strat vortex is going to be problematic i think, maybe the pro's mentioning late January as the timeframe could be that we are going to require another attack on the vortex and thats what the long range models are showing.

    image.thumb.png.a5284c2fee28711bd6e10457f202f6d4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
    15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Is GFS thinking about splitting the PV?

    It looks a very strong PV one has to say..

    Doesn’t look to strong from this chart from the 7th

    85A1E784-B075-45F8-B59C-753AB592779F.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Is GFS thinking about splitting the PV?

    It looks a very strong PV one has to say..

    No split going on there :unknw: HP, just flattened. 

     But who cares I’m not taking anything seriously atm and especially the GFS.....unless it’s showing Narnia...let me know when you see mr Tumnus 

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    19 minutes ago, Don said:

    An increase in AAM, westerlies at 30N should mean good news for us.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    An increase in AAM, westerlies at 30N should mean good news for us.

    Thanks, wasn't sure when he stated 'it's over' at the end!  I guess he meant the westerlies?

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, Don said:

    Thanks, wasn't sure when he stated 'it's over' at the end!  I guess he meant the westerlies?

    He tweeetd earlier to say that things are on hold in the Pacific ..... probably a stagnant pattern for two weeks so we waste a fortnight of winter as we sit under the block ........

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    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
    • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
    • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
    • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)
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