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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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4 hours ago, .jay said:

The toads in my garden pond are strongly of the opinion that spring starts on the 1st March.

The days are too long, the sun is too high and the average temps too warm to consider it as being winter... winter isn't just about how much wet snow is lying at 9 am.

HMMMMM

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8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

After 16 years on NW, I still can't understand the fixation with AO-/NAO-values; surely you can see from the charts, everything you need know about them, including whether the expected setup will be east- or west-based...?

I'm not trying to be awkward, but, to me, it's a bit like my needing to get 'official' confirmation that the outside temperature is sub-zero, when everything outside is either knee-deep in drifting powder-snow or festooned with 10-foot-long icicles...

I can only assume that I'm missing something??

You’re right. They just reflect what the models show. I never understand why people get hung up on them or take them as gospel.

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Although I cant quite recall if this was earlier this year, but I am getting a bit of dejavue, seeing the clock count down (although at end of Dec, unwarranted) and a UK high dominating the charts. When in reality, the UK high hung around for only a week drying out the soil  and what transpired afterwards was quite nirvana like. I seem to recall the UK being in a slither of green 850s whilst all around was purple.

Memory not best as were lucky with so many interludes last winter and 40 days of snow last year, so all a bit fuzzy. For example airports shut down 27th dec last year. Meanwhile Turkeys rescuing dogs from frozen lakes. C'mon SSW I have faith in you.

 

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ICON is high pressure dominated throughout. The high looks like bringing some frosty nights to start with but after that probably clouding over as it positions itself over the southern UK.

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4 minutes ago, karyo said:

ICON is high pressure dominated throughout. The high looks like bringing some frosty nights to start with but after that probably clouding over as it positions itself over the southern UK.

so a borefest

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

If only it could move another 200 miles further north to stay frosty throughout.

lol even frost is tedious, we need snow, it's winter, you can't build frost men and throw frost balls?

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6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

lol even frost is tedious, we need snow, it's winter, you can't build frost men and throw frost balls?

I would gladly take a frosty spell after what we have had so far this winter.  Anyway it would prime the ground nicely for snow if we were to get some if the ssw does  us a favour.  Ground temp must be pretty high for the time of yr atm.  Even some daisies springing up.

Edited by sundog
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14 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

lol even frost is tedious, we need snow, it's winter, you can't build frost men and throw frost balls?

It's ten times better than anything we've had so far this 'winter'. It may be less interesting than snow but can look just as seasonal, especially when with fog. It's what made January 2017 bearable given the overall absence of snow.

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Hello all, with the current December CET at more than 2C above average, isn't it safe to say that it is unlikely we will come out with a colder than average Winter, even if we see some colder weather due to the SSW, I would have thought it would have to be some prolonged and properly cold weather in Jan and Feb if we are to offset Dec?

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GFS backtracking again compared to 3 days ago-this is now NYD

gfs-0-72.thumb.png.00bd75968a71de824159542e7a517183.pnggfs-0-144.thumb.png.df00fd5c0906fe835b53a4651e228f78.png

finding the amplification that other models had already latched onto.

Meanwhile UKMO pretty steady at the same timeframes

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Cold air into the east lowering temperatures.

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Pretty poor looking at day 9, however the PV looks less organised which is no bad thing. I’m still confident of some GEFS eye candy in FI, maybe even this run in the last few frames. 

 

Told you ?

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Edited by Ali1977
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Well that was exciting !

Lets not book the mariachi band just yet but an improvement on the earlier GFS run.

Whether this is a response to the SSW or the MJO or a combination of both doesn’t really matter as long as we see some changes upstream .

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