Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Gerryhattrick 72]

4 hours ago, .jay said:

The toads in my garden pond are strongly of the opinion that spring starts on the 1st March.

The days are too long, the sun is too high and the average temps too warm to consider it as being winter... winter isn't just about how much wet snow is lying at 9 am.

HMMMMM

[MattStoke 6,415]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

After 16 years on NW, I still can't understand the fixation with AO-/NAO-values; surely you can see from the charts, everything you need know about them, including whether the expected setup will be east- or west-based...?

I'm not trying to be awkward, but, to me, it's a bit like my needing to get 'official' confirmation that the outside temperature is sub-zero, when everything outside is either knee-deep in drifting powder-snow or festooned with 10-foot-long icicles...

I can only assume that I'm missing something??

You’re right. They just reflect what the models show. I never understand why people get hung up on them or take them as gospel.

[geordiekev 1,341]

Although I cant quite recall if this was earlier this year, but I am getting a bit of dejavue, seeing the clock count down (although at end of Dec, unwarranted) and a UK high dominating the charts. When in reality, the UK high hung around for only a week drying out the soil  and what transpired afterwards was quite nirvana like. I seem to recall the UK being in a slither of green 850s whilst all around was purple.

Memory not best as were lucky with so many interludes last winter and 40 days of snow last year, so all a bit fuzzy. For example airports shut down 27th dec last year. Meanwhile Turkeys rescuing dogs from frozen lakes. C'mon SSW I have faith in you.

 

[SLEETY 5,571]

25 minutes ago, Gerryhattrick said:

HMMMMM

wow where was that,hopefully we see seems like that again this winter,EVENTUALLY.

[karyo 4,795]

ICON is high pressure dominated throughout. The high looks like bringing some frosty nights to start with but after that probably clouding over as it positions itself over the southern UK.

[lassie23 17,504]

4 minutes ago, karyo said:

ICON is high pressure dominated throughout. The high looks like bringing some frosty nights to start with but after that probably clouding over as it positions itself over the southern UK.

so a borefest

[Jon Snow 80,625]

P17 GEFS 6z perked me up a bit...if only!!!!

[karyo 4,795]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

so a borefest

If only it could move another 200 miles further north to stay frosty throughout.

[lassie23 17,504]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

If only it could move another 200 miles further north to stay frosty throughout.

lol even frost is tedious, we need snow, it's winter, you can't build frost men and throw frost balls?

[General Cluster 61,580]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

lol even frost is tedious, we need snow, it's winter, you can't build frost men and throw frost balls?

Been there; done that!

[sundog 1,234]

6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

lol even frost is tedious, we need snow, it's winter, you can't build frost men and throw frost balls?

I would gladly take a frosty spell after what we have had so far this winter.  Anyway it would prime the ground nicely for snow if we were to get some if the ssw does  us a favour.  Ground temp must be pretty high for the time of yr atm.  Even some daisies springing up.

Edited December 29, 2018 by sundog

[MP-R 3,630]

14 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

lol even frost is tedious, we need snow, it's winter, you can't build frost men and throw frost balls?

It's ten times better than anything we've had so far this 'winter'. It may be less interesting than snow but can look just as seasonal, especially when with fog. It's what made January 2017 bearable given the overall absence of snow.

[AppleUK 123 324]

Hello all, with the current December CET at more than 2C above average, isn't it safe to say that it is unlikely we will come out with a colder than average Winter, even if we see some colder weather due to the SSW, I would have thought it would have to be some prolonged and properly cold weather in Jan and Feb if we are to offset Dec?

[nick sussex 63,391]

Someone wake me up when something happens !

More utter tedium so far tonight . 

The limpet high briefly gets north but never far enough and then resumes position to the south.

 

[Dancerwithwings 5,075]

8 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

error

Well said....regarding the 12z GFS output, frost balls anyone ?

[mother nature rocks 665]

Over on weatherbell even there pros are calling the American models wrong and more likely to use the Europeans / JMA at this stage given current atmospheric conditions.

GFS will adjust nearer the time!! Would not pay much attention to it until this happens!!

MNR

[phil nw. 18,781]

GFS backtracking again compared to 3 days ago-this is now NYD

finding the amplification that other models had already latched onto.

Meanwhile UKMO pretty steady at the same timeframes

 

Cold air into the east lowering temperatures.

[Ali1977 9,809]

Pretty poor looking at day 9, however the PV looks less organised which is no bad thing. I’m still confident of some GEFS eye candy in FI, maybe even this run in the last few frames. 

 

Told you ?

Edited December 29, 2018 by Ali1977

[nick sussex 63,391]

A smidge of excitement !

The GFS now trying to dig the troughing further south over ne Canada . Could help downstream .

[That ECM 9,020]

Always rated the gfs???

[lamppost watcher 218]

Game on at t348. They do say mid Jan is the landing zone

[GeordieX9v 664]

Good run from the GFS like.

[General Cluster 61,580]

Very positive...Now, let's see how this arvo's Para compares with this mornings??

[nick sussex 63,391]

Well that was exciting !

Lets not book the mariachi band just yet but an improvement on the earlier GFS run.

Whether this is a response to the SSW or the MJO or a combination of both doesn’t really matter as long as we see some changes upstream .

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts 322]

Looks very high pressure dominated into January on the GFS12z which I don't mind at all after weeks of rain and gales in South Wales.