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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


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Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
    1 hour ago, More Snow said:

    Well living in Scotland i was still taking ice off the windscreen in the middle of may this year, and last year our first frost was at the start of October so if its frost etc that defines the start or finish of winter proper then we have an 8 month winter up here.

    With the rest being midge season.....

     

    Interesting  chart that, the fog could be dense and freezing next Saturday,  not a good day for travelling any distance through the Midlands.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    T+384 is loaded with potential, with lots of lovely cold air entrenched over Europe...Must mention the Iberian low too, before it disappears!:cold:

    image.thumb.png.1d4f68f97a94797a662ab756742326c9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    T+384 is loaded with potential, with lots of lovely cold air entrenched over Europe...Must mention the Iberian low too, before it disappears!

    image.thumb.png.1d4f68f97a94797a662ab756742326c9.png

    It's like trying to polish a turd at the moment looking at the models..can only hope they improve in the new year..someone wave a magic wand already..please!!!?:drunk-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    It's like trying to polish a turd at the moment looking at the models..can only hope they improve in the new year..someone wave a magic wand already..please!!!?:drunk-emoji:

    preferably wave 2 large magic wands, one from the pacific sector, one from the atlantic sector joining in the middle through the pole, make them around 170000ft high as well.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    40 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    I wonder which ‘models’ they are referring to ? Does  Meteogroup have access to Mogreps?

    Probably the EC46.

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    Posted
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny summers, cold & snowy winters
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs

    Well, I can't really add anything, but will put up some colourful pictures. Hopefully, you'll find them interesting!

    In the short term, looking at ICON there is a beautiful Foehn effect in evidence on Monday across eastern Scotland

    Foehn.thumb.JPG.e0447dca303604689b3d0da7b391e8c1.JPG

    And come 2nd Jan, there is a glancing blow with the -6 isotherm over Lincolnshire coast, East Anglia - and a general cooling trend.

    1571944628_Glancing-6.thumb.JPG.ed105c9a4089caedc5dcdaa3c0809c0f.JPG

    I won't show the chart with -25 isotherm extending past us into central Europe! I image dangerously cold temps over the Austrian Alps, exactly as Carintian alluded to a couple of days ago.

    In the medium term, the GEM seems to pick up a different evolution to the others - with a colder 850 temp profile across the Atlantic and the UK from 7th Jan.
    Of some concern is the -40 @ 850 growing and heading south over Hudson Bay, which would likely light the touch paper for the jet.

    403936130_GEM2402m.thumb.JPG.e43bf8d2a04ae88e6595b5658b694de2.JPG

    There really isn't much else to get excited about, just for now...
    But while this is still happening...

    1620666622_jmastrat.thumb.JPG.fffb17b4c01ea9bedcfd496c879369b7.JPG

    I live in hope of a snowy salvation in the second half of Jan and into February.

    image.png

    Edited by Selliso
    correction
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    It's like trying to polish a turd at the moment looking at the models..can only hope they improve in the new year..someone wave a magic wand already..please!!!?:drunk-emoji:

    Good morning, my fellow autist...I do hate it when things refuse to go to plan...?

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
    8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Well it would appear Mogreps is with ECM for next week, meto RAW now dropping temps like a stone for my location wed onwards with temps 2-4 daytime and sub zero at night..

    Not backing GFS..

    By Wednesday 4c thursday  1c Friday 1c all with an easterly wind for me in Somerset 

    Edited by fromey
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    Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
    15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Well if we can't have snow, at least let us have some frost..I am Frosty after all!!?

    You know its bad when we're getting excited for a frost. Although i wouldn't kick a nice air frost out of bed at present.

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, high pressure eventually is replaced by this..a chance of snow..wouldn't kick this out of bed!:santa-emoji:❄️

    snow_384_ps_slp.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    32 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

    Has anyone noticed today's AO compared with yesterday's 

    Almost complete flip from a forecast positive to a negative 

    Rare you see that 

    Now let's wait for the models follow with hints of northern blocking in the coming days 

    Hello.....

    image.thumb.png.64961bd94aedba2f105655072ca2945f.png

    For those wanting to understand a little more

    A negative AO and weak vortex … allow intrusions of cold air to plunge southward into North America, Europe, and Asia.

    image.thumb.png.315195ff03a1b704ff4712f5384231b6.png

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

     well if it’s any comfort to all at the moment the Met 6/30 day still sticking to mid jan cold spell win fog frost and snow 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    a couple of ten day cold spells with decent snowfall would make it a good winter for coldies ..... and there is no reason to think that isn’t possible ....

    Oh you are a tease blue..looking forward to the models eventually showing this!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

    Oh you are a tease blue..looking forward to the models eventually showing this!?

    A tease you say Frosty....you ain’t far wrong....10 days lol...10mins will do me at the moment...only joking blue?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    11 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    A tease you say Frosty....you ain’t far wrong....10 days lol...10mins will do me at the moment...only joking blue?

    Indeed, 1 snow flake would do for starters..really frustrating period we coldies are in at present..surely the only way is up..:santa-emoji:unlike in fawlty towers when the game was up..well a bit of game pie anyway..there is still plenty of winter left but I hope it starts showing soon!!?

    hqdefault.jpg

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Still waiting for something significant to develop but a couple of reassuring things to look at.

    The last few days we have not seen any real effort to develop and truly cold and wintry pattern, on the other hand the most amplified solutions from the ECM have tended to pretty fairly close to the mark as the day 7 charts a few days back have been pretty much replicated whilst other models have moved to this. For me i think the models have tended to overdo the natural cooling over the pole trying to increase the strength of westerlies and now we are seeing this be moderated with high pressure remaining in place.

    I guess we can hope for an amplified operational in the coming days  because it probably has a better chance than normal of verifying than normal given the background signals. Fingers crossed.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    After 16 years on NW, I still can't understand the fixation with AO-/NAO-values; surely you can see from the charts, everything you need know about them, including whether the expected setup will be east- or west-based...?

    I'm not trying to be awkward, but, to me, it's a bit like my needing to get 'official' confirmation that the outside temperature is sub-zero, when everything outside is either knee-deep in drifting powder-snow or festooned with 10-foot-long icicles...

    I can only assume that I'm missing something??

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Plenty of positives today, I’m thinking we may see the best GEFS for a while today this next run as the SSW slowly catches on, maybe towards -4 mean towards FI with a few -10s. 

     

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
    • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
    • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
    • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)
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