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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

At face value GFS 12z looked dry for christmas eve but in actual fact its a bit meh, with a bank of drizzle/light rain south of manchester..

True but another move North with the WAA, trends are friends 

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2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

gfsnh-0-168.png?12

Hello what's going on here?

Hopefully not another slider gate episode,holy mother of god !!!! Yes mayby a push northwest here

Edited by swfc
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Things are looking good! Set the theme!

GFS & UKMO @ 144 a good starting post! Close enough at D6! 

4F59C7AC-A4B9-4E53-A54A-8D5ECAD8BE22.thumb.png.a1db7e028e8c9480d39cf35a7b1a0086.pngAE03970C-C0B1-47EC-B6DA-5B11DEF54C31.thumb.gif.5e4799e81e7376f1ad681e82be2fadb0.gif

GFS at 168 good in my book. 

77B4BADD-2249-4462-AE60-ED15DA7C1DFC.thumb.png.a76b494815dab4d28320e304d361e451.png

I’ve seen enough for now!

Edited by karlos1983
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5 hours ago, carinthian said:

A dream day ski-ing on the Aineck Mountain. Last one for 6 weeks before embarking on my trip to Vancouver via Sussex for a few days over Christmas. Well what a messy outlook from most NWP models for Christmas. None really showing the same out puts at 168t. Anyway , this what our shows this morning ( very latest ) and yes a Easterly drift over Southern Britain on Christmas Day as the Atlantic trough pushes slowly and erractically NE from the Azores towards the Channel with possible shallow low circulation. Pressure rises to follow across the UK  generally in the period 168-240 . A lot of uncertainty in the medium longer term charts , so verification expected to be low. Interesting thoughts about ECM runs which seem to indicate much lower heights to the NE in the run up to New Year but as yet has little support from the main models but not to be discounted.  As I say all a bit messy but further developments could move at a pace just before Christmas , so one to watch.

C

48415875_10157045884238628_8474522988190892032_o.jpg

Well there you have it. Our model spot on with a Easterly across Southern Britain on Christmas Day . Some low temps over parts of Scotland under the high cell.

 C

GFSOPUK12_171_13.png

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Well the latest using the 12z outputs showing the model prediction for Saturday 22 December 12Z. I said on the first day I had no idea how it would pan out. In fact the 12z issue has been remarkably consistent. One has only to look at the two sets of charts issued each day, now down from 168h to 96h.

Test 2.doc

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The ? has been fired!!!..

And the reverberations felt-noted!!..

The momentum and sync will now sniff the ramifications, as they are played out...and model conciencious.... and matching 'should begin alignment...

As we have now gained....-as thought-..

And the countdown to cold....opens..

Starter...then main course.

Note-compares of raws through todays suites..

I'll wack some data/support/snaps/Analysis..after the 12z ecm...

Winter lifts off!!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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