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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


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Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Just looking at the ECM run in more detail now it's all updated and the 850s might not tell the whole story next weekend the 00z Op gives London a high of -1.5c at noon whilst the mean is at 2.9c

    67575.thumb.png.684b66b5be0c7b597cf8ecc0f44694d3.png

    Yes EC looks very cold as we head through next week... perhaps freezing fog ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Just looking at the ECM run in more detail now it's all updated and the 850s might not tell the whole story next weekend the 00z Op gives London a high of -1.5c at noon whilst the mean is at 2.9c

    67575.thumb.png.684b66b5be0c7b597cf8ecc0f44694d3.png

    TM2 chart for 12pm next Saturday ( cheers Darren )

    TM2 Chart.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Yes EC looks very cold as we head through next week... perhaps freezing fog ?

    Freezing fog was my first thought could take some shifting under that high

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
    14 minutes ago, jethro said:

     

    People often complain about the endless, tedious autumn weather, 'when will winter kick in?' because of the METO arbitrary date. But if you look at the things likely to lead to winter proper starting, such as day length, sea temperatures, soil temperatures etc, December 21st makes far more sense.

    The coldest 3 month period in the CET record is something like 6th December to 5th March. Meteorological definition is closer for us here, as simple as.

    Edited by Steve C
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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Yes EC looks very cold as we head through next week... perhaps freezing fog ?

    I'm going to be honest not much interest in freezing fog for we are heading in to the heart of winter now and still no sign of snow on the models and the background signals have been pretty decent since November.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    8 minutes ago, Banbury said:

    TM2 chart for 12pm next Saturday ( cheers Darren )

    TM2 Chart.png

    -4 midlands next saturday day?

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    12 minutes ago, jethro said:

    It's not pedantic though, is it? The METO definition is simply an arbitrary thing to make it easier to classify the weather in neat little chunks, it's more of a record keeping/filing system thing.  The weather isn't influenced by a filing system, but because their filing system dictates that winter starts on December 1st, people's expectations are that 'winter is here' when it very rarely is. The METO definition has simply added another 3 weeks in which hope/expectation of cold, snowy weather is high, when in reality, it's actually the end of Autumn. Physical things, such as the length of day, do influence the weather so astrological dates are (in my opinion) more relevant when applied to the weather we can expect.

    People often complain about the endless, tedious autumn weather, 'when will winter kick in?' because of the METO arbitrary date. But if you look at the things likely to lead to winter proper starting, such as day length, sea temperatures, soil temperatures etc, December 21st makes far more sense.

    Winter is but 8 days old, we're not half way through winter with dwindling prospects of cold and snow, we're at the start of winter with promising signs that it will kick in with a vengeance soon.

    I think the answer lies somewhere in between the meteorological and astrological start of winter. Who’s to say the astrological start date is any more accurate? It is simply the shortest day of the year, which doesn’t take into account sea temperatures, soil temperatures etc either. If “winter” is then 21st December to 21st March, going by the astronomical definition then are we saying 20th March is more “winter” than say, the 5th of December? Even though solar energy in early December is much lower? It’s debatable. 

    The truth is, both the meteorological and astronomical definitions of the start of winter, or summer for that matter, are abitrary. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    -4 midlands next saturday day?

    ECM Op gives Brum -2.9c at noon with the mean at 2.2c

    brum.thumb.png.3f556c3654790c4842f78680a4d0714e.png

    Could be bitter around the Black country next weekend if we get freezing fog under that high

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    5 minutes ago, danm said:

    I think the answer lies somewhere in between the meteorological and astrological start of winter. Who’s to say the astrological start date is any more accurate? It is simply the shortest day of the year, which doesn’t take into account sea temperatures, soil temperatures etc either. If “winter” is then 21st December to 21st March, going by the astronomical definition then are we saying 20th March is more “winter” than say, the 5th of December? Even though solar energy in early December is much lower? It’s debatable. 

    The truth is, both the meteorological and astronomical definitions of the start of winter, or summer for that matter, are abitrary. 

    Thermal lag of the surrounding  seas and oceans do make the onset  of winter 6 weeks later than any arbitrary  metrological dating 

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
    13 minutes ago, danm said:

    I think the answer lies somewhere in between the meteorological and astrological start of winter. Who’s to say the astrological start date is any more accurate? It is simply the shortest day of the year, which doesn’t take into account sea temperatures, soil temperatures etc either. If “winter” is then 21st December to 21st March, going by the astronomical definition then are we saying 20th March is more “winter” than say, the 5th of December? Even though solar energy in early December is much lower? It’s debatable. 

    The truth is, both the meteorological and astronomical definitions of the start of winter, or summer for that matter, are abitrary. 

    I prefer a mixture of the two definitions, with more emphasis on the two main seasons. 

    Spring: 21st March to 31st May

    Summer: 1st June to 22nd September

    Autumn: 23rd September to 30th November

    Winter: 1st December to 20th March

    Why not eh, at least by my definition, we're only roughly a quarter of the way through Winter, rather than a third ? ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
    18 minutes ago, Steve C said:

    The coldest 3 month period in the CET record is something like 6th December to 5th March. Meteorological definition is closer for us here, as simple as.

    It's far from simple though. Speaking as someone who lives in the SW, borderline temperatures where snow might happen if we're lucky, result in nowt but rain due to the warm sea temperatures in late Autumn/early Winter if the METO dates are used. Those same borderline temperatures are more likely to produce snow around here from late December onwards,(astrological winter) once the sea has cooled. I'm a gardener by trade, cutting grass long into late November/early December is common, cutting it at the beginning of March is unheard of. Nature doesn't say 'woohoo, it's Spring' on March 1st.

    Tempering expectations of winter weather by paying heed to when astrological winter starts could save a lot of teeth gnashing around here, early December snow and thick frost is a rare beast. Late December, early January however, is a reasonable time to expect some.

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    Posted
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny summers, cold & snowy winters
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
    37 minutes ago, Banbury said:

    TM2 chart for 12pm next Saturday ( cheers Darren )

    TM2 Chart.png

    What a strange looking chart... is this indicating fog / inversion perhaps?

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    Surely summer is two warm days in June followed by a thunderstorm, and winter is one morning in late February. The rest of the year being Autumn ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
    6 minutes ago, matty40s said:

    Can we stop this astrological/March is colder rubbish and keep to the models chasing the cold. It went on for most of last night and is still going now....

     

    The models should start to pick up on the actual SSW from Monday hopefully

    Apologies. Merely trying to suggest that winter isn't late, nor half way through, it's just beginning. Maybe if folk considered it that way, they'd be less frustration and teeth gnashing whilst waiting for some decent charts to appear. It's not like there's a whole lot of excitement to discuss at the mo, is there? A bit diversion surely isn't the end of the world, especially given this is the general 'hunt for cold' thread and suggesting the time to hunt for it is really only just beginning. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    28 minutes ago, .jay said:

    The toads in my garden pond are strongly of the opinion that spring starts on the 1st March.

    The days are too long, the sun is too high and the average temps too warm to consider it as being winter... winter isn't just about how much wet snow is lying at 9 am.

    Absolutely agree, I remember when we had the snow in March it was all beautiful and within an hour of the sun coming out, even though it was 0c, the snow all melted. I think it’s an issue especially here in the south, laying snow and ice days have always been best in December and January here.

     

    Bsck to the models, reiterating what I said last night the Lobe of Death piece of vortex is ruining everything, as usual! Sod off!

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    Well living in Scotland i was still taking ice off the windscreen in the middle of may this year, and last year our first frost was at the start of October so if its frost etc that defines the start or finish of winter proper then we have an 8 month winter up here.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Good grief GFS is like a dog with a bone..

    Not so much as a baby step to ECM...

    Stand off continues .

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

    Meanwhile, back at the GFS Ranch and it's all change again on the 6z.

     

    Problem seems to be how to deal with the cold plunge in to the US and downstream impacts on the jet to me...

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1&carte=1

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=5&carte=1

     

     

     

    Edited by pdiddy
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I think (though it might very well be wishful thinking) today's 06Z is a wee bit less flat than yesterdays was...? As yesterday's 12Z was, in turn, less flat than the 06Z, today's 12Z might be interesting...As John Holmes has suggested (so many times I've lost count!) it should be more productive if we compare like with like...

    image.thumb.png.35ca5f31c5e4e00392619bc939315412.png

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    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
    • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
    • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
    • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)
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