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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    you  can put put a cross in half of january xs well,so that six weeks left to see this HLB ,that the meto office and other seasonal  models were predicting was going to be the most likely outcome during the winter,off course you wouldn’t expect it solid for 3 months,but we had hardly seen any at all.

    Time to consign these longe range models to the shredder,still miles away from able to predict months in advance.

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    Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

    After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

    Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    10 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    you  can put put a cross in half of january xs well,so that six weeks left to see this HLB ,that the meto office and other seasonal  models were predicting was going to be the most likely outcome during the winter,off course you wouldn’t expect it solid for 3 months,but we had hardly seen any at all.

    Time to consign these longe range models to the shredder,still miles away from able to predict months in advance.

    Absolutely and as you rightly say the signal wasn't for a solid 3 months of blocking , for the models to come out with any credibility HLB needs to show up and PDQ 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
    51 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    Stop moaning, for crying out loud you make for depressing reading this morning!

    I'm sure you used to be a voice of reason in previous winters.

    Maybe your negative energy is deflecting the cold away. Is there a winter moaning thread?

    How about the astronomical winter only started 8 days ago, all to play for. That's positive. That should counter balance ,with patience is the key winning the day. .

    Edited by stewfox
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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    2 minutes ago, stewfox said:

    How about meteorological winter only started 8 days ago, all to play for. That's positive. That should counter balance ,with patience is the key winning the day. .

    Pedantry alert!  Meteorological winter starts on 1st December (source: MetOffice).

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Ext EPS all over the place - very little continuity.  Much more ridgy - trough well into Russia while ridge in mid-Atlantic (neutral heights over Greenland).

    Probably can bin them until we see some continuity...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Ext EPS all over the place - very little continuity.  Much more ridgy - trough well into Russia while ridge in mid-Atlantic (neutral heights over Greenland).

    Probably can bin them until we see some continuity...

     

    Thanks Mulzy...

    Lets remain hopeful things take a turn for the better and the warming in the strat can penetrate the horrid trop pattern..

    ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    9 minutes ago, Banbury said:

    Just to show balance the Met O's forecast is for below average temps , as always time will tell .

     

    forecast-temp-jfm-v1.pdf

    That's certainly promising, good to see the Met standing firm at least. On a separate note, can posters please refrain from calling members 'moaners and 'negative just for voicing what the models actually show!

    Maybe a bit of a split showing attend of the ensembles...or straw clutching??

    MT8_London_ens-2.png

    Edited by KTtom
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    3 hours ago, Mucka said:

    Very interesting potential development this morning,

    GfS Op and UKMO may be underwhelming but within GFS ensembles there are several members that want to drop a trough down from Iceland sliding down the E flank of the ridge around 120 through 144

    This has the effect of greatly sharpening up and amplifying the pattern. Let's see if any the other models go for it.

    Below are a a trio of examples but there are quite a few to suggest this a very plausible new development - just the timing and positioning is a little different but the upshot is always a more amplified pattern.

    gensnh-10-1-120.pnggensnh-10-1-144.png

    gensnh-9-1-120.pnggensnh-9-1-150.png

    gensnh-20-1-120.pnggensnh-20-1-150.png

    Not sure why there is a sudden willingness to drop troughs S/SE rather push them more E/SE but if it is a trend it is good news.

     

    ICON had a stab at the very low a few days ago.Timings a little out.

    I will copy my post 

    Screenshot_20181229-084608_Chrome.jpg

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    8 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    That's certainly promising, good to see the Met standing firm at least. On a separate note, can posters please refrain from calling members 'moaners and 'negative just for voicing what the models actually show!

    Maybe a bit of a split showing attend of the ensembles...or straw clutching??

    MT8_London_ens-2.png

    Certainly looks from the 8th /9th a split , hopefully something will start to show up

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    I know it's not PC to say it in this demand it now get it tomorrow world but patience is the key attribute required from forum members looking for cold and snow ATM. The current rolling high scenario can be boring but the weather isn't run by Amazon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
    31 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Pedantry alert!  Meteorological winter starts on 1st December (source: MetOffice).

    Astronomical read what I posted ?. SSW = UK = Cold I thought isn't guaranteed and there was talk of disengagement pages back ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    1 hour ago, Banbury said:

    I remember watching Gav P's excellent seasonal model round up . Models were favouring HLB for DJF , the 'D' has all but vanished , currently as I type 'J' isn't showing much in the way of HLB .

     

    I remarked on this last week, how many D-J-F long range forecasts had copius Northerly blocking in our sector. 

    With D a bust and the first half of J looking ropey, then for these long rangers to be right then the second half if J and F will need to be 1947/1963 like.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

    I remarked on this last week, how many D-J-F long range forecasts had copius Northerly blocking in our sector. 

    With D a bust and the first half of J looking ropey, then for these long rangers to be right then the second half if J and F will need to be 1947/1963 like.

    Have you seen an an anomoly chart for December ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    Seems to me that there may well be changes ahead as we see the strat influence taking hold, even BBC weather forecast just now said we can look forward to some northerly influence with more crisp and frosty weather, which is better than the output so far from winter 18/19.

    Models struggle at the best of times, more so when there are mixed messages, just proves that NWP, as advanced as it is, is still in its infancy with many feedback influences which can throw a grenade at their forecast based upon algorithms and previous outcomes. 

    As regards the "moans", it's as much about the delivery as the message within... I have no problem with someone saying "sadly there's not much to cheer the hearts of coldies" but it's a different thing to almost blame people for having suggested an evolution to cold hasn't come off as the NWP outputs suggested about 2-3 weeks ago. 

    Over and out.... 

    Edited by JeffC
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    ECM by day five  to seven looks better than GFS but which one will come into reality maybe neither ,what's needed is for the azores heights to lower and pressure to rise and hold its ground over iceland when the effects of the strat warming might come into play which isn't showing at the end of the gfs runs at the moment 

    Callander winter is a third through already but I believe actual winter is only just starting and if the  sww does effect our weather then mid January will see our first real cold spell which might not show on the models for a few more days yet

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Whilst the ECM was producing some cold runs the mean was never dropping much below -3 this morning the Op has moved closer to the mean for the latter half of next week before going off on one into the following week for the milder air

    graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.cfb75f61a81942ad299d2670aeb18c3e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Whilst the ECM was producing some cold runs the mean was never dropping much below -3 this morning the Op has moved closer to the mean for the latter half of next week before going off on one into the following week for the milder air

    graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.cfb75f61a81942ad299d2670aeb18c3e.png

    Just looking at the ECM run in more detail now it's all updated and the 850s might not tell the whole story next weekend the 00z Op gives London a high of -1.5c at noon whilst the mean is at 2.9c

    67575.thumb.png.684b66b5be0c7b597cf8ecc0f44694d3.png

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    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
    • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
    • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
    • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)
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