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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
3 minutes ago, Don said:

How do you know he was using GEFS and not GLOSEA?

Doesn't he work for BBC?  They don't see GloSea5 any more...they get their data from MeteoGroup.  Probably GFS ECM blend?

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Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
16 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Meto announcement late this afternoon:

We can confirm a sudden stratospheric warming is underway high up in the atmosphere, however this does not mean we will end up with a 'Beast from the East' and heavy snowfall," Nicola Maxey of the Met Office said. "The impacts from this event take around two weeks to be felt at ground level and as of yet it is too early to say exactly how this event will impact the weather here in the UK." She continued: "It was a similar situation that resulted in the cold weather we experienced in February and March however an SSW does not always result in heavy snowfall. "It often leads to a blocking pattern which disrupts the westerly weather patterns that are predominate in the UK."

Sky news....

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Doesn't he work for BBC?  They don't see GloSea5 any more...they get their data from MeteoGroup.  Probably GFS ECM blend?

I wouldn't be surprised if MeteoGroup pay the Met Office for access to GloSea5, though

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
13 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Detect caution from that Meto advice. Upgrades tentative but need to see more runs to start thinking were anywhere near hitting the jackpot mid month.

Don't want to go off topic but it's caution only in the sense they don't want idiots from the media spouting off that the Met Office are calling a big freeze. They have to choose their words very carefully. So even if they're confident of a cold spell, until it is absolutely 100% nailed, they are right to use cautious language. Doesn't mean that they are changing their minds on anything at this stage

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

At least the GFS Para is starting to smell the coffee - again. Let's just hope God remembered to put hot water in the cafetiere this time???:cold:

image.thumb.png.18203ee0b852868231cfab0fd345a02b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
10 minutes ago, LRD said:

ECM 240 looks ok. Can definitely see a route to a cold pattern for the UK from that

Yes, day 10 looks good. However as ever, I'm not too fussed about day 10 charts. This really is one of those situations where the upgrades could really stack up in the 4 to 6 day timeframe over the next 48 hours. 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Just now, LRD said:

Don't want to go off topic but it's caution only in the sense they don't want idiots from the media spouting off that the Met Office are calling a big freeze. They have to choose their words very carefully. So even if they're confident of a cold spell, until it is absolutely 100% nailed, they are right to use cautious language

Meto already talking of winds from colder direction late next week. Forecast is on their twitter feed.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Just now, blizzard81 said:

Yes, day 10 looks good. However as ever, I'm not too fussed about day 10 charts. This really is one of those situations where the upgrades could really stack up in the 4 to 6 day timeframe over the next 48 hours. 

Yes, totally agree

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Where’s @IDO gone . Lovely run from the ECM and the para very good too . Some nice cold days and frosty nights if that comes of .

D12C9207-5D89-44A5-A579-A2F7D39D4956.png

I am here! Yes, nothing from the ECM yet to excite, though "potential" changes for the better for sure and settled UK HP is a good holding pattern IMO.

The Para gets to where it gets with a trigger low running west to east undercutting a parcel of heights to its north to attach to the trough in the east. No single GEFS has this development and I would like to see something as unusual as this repeating in the model let alone verifying! 

gfs-0-216.thumb.png.be459799e70365496a609e52497e9aeb.png

The SSW has happened, so changes will come sooner rather than later. Interesting model watching ahead...

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
14 minutes ago, LRD said:

I wouldn't be surprised if MeteoGroup pay the Met Office for access to GloSea5, though

Why do you think so. The Dutch part of the MeteoGroup don't have acces tot Glosea5.

For the long term (months) they make use of WCS.

Edited by sebastiaan1973
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Why do you think so. The Dutch part of the MeteoGroup don't have acces tot Glosea5.

I said I wouldn't be surprised. Not necessarily that I thought so. Surely it's possible for anyone to pay the Met Office for access to Glosea5? Or is it strictly not for sale? I would doubt the MO would turn income down

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
4 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Why do you think so. The Dutch part of the MeteoGroup don't have acces tot Glosea5.

Not specifically to you but a number are having a conversation about a fella on twatterr(as I call it) who cares and if you do tweet him.

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

We keep debating Chris Fawkes ..... it would be better if he would come on somewhere like this and contribute but we know that , just like fergie, he would be tempted to share something he shouldn’t and that would be the end ......anyway, mr Fawkes would surely only be tweeting  gefs strat data if eps agreed with it ....he can’t tweet eps charts 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We keep debating Chris Fawkes ..... it would be better if he would come on somewhere like this and contribute but we know that , just like fergie, he would be tempted to share something he shouldn’t and that would be the end ......anyway, mr Fawkes would surely only be tweeting  gefs strat data if eps agreed with it ....he can’t tweet eps charts 

Micheal Ventrice does.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

So the Atlantic has been delayed yet again by the ECM and the GFS has shown further westward correction so that it looks like we go colder from the east next week.

Still some way to go before the pattern reverts to what we are looking for wrt Polar blocking but modelling is showing more amplification and the block doesn't look like giving way easily if at all.

ECM T168

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.78d087afb8d217ebaa2f37961b98102b.gif

The gap between the 2 pv lobes starting to open up.What may well evolve now is the retention of quite cold surface conditions under the ridge after the initial incursion from the east.

If the trend continues to increasing ridging then the Atlantic jet will be forced to go south.Not a bad pattern to be in for a launch pad to proper Winter.


 

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Hi posters ,yes ecm ,could turn in to a better run ,I mean on future runs .But looking at the 240 hr chart just look at those eyes and the mouth pretty scarey ,great reading your posts ,cheers. .

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Micheal Ventrice does.

Ventrice must have an agreement with ec whereby he can tweet a certain number of restricted charts each week .....

 Chris Fawkes doesn’t ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well it's been a very positive day so far for those hunting for cold I would suggest.  A couple of points occur to me,  First I don't think anyone is suggesting the FV3 run will verify as is, it was the first op run to suggest the direction of travel that some of us expect, twists and turns will come, but it has some support from ECM, ICON etc.  

The second point I'd like to make is that now this signal should appear across the suite in the next 48 hours or so.  I mentioned 2013 in a previous post, here the charts before that cold snowy week:

image.thumb.jpg.b0865d30cf2e21b39ea4ee2f2625db42.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.382c74468ce04d2e09b47965efe781af.jpg

If I recall correctly, this sprung up at fairly short notice after SSW 6/1/13?  Not massive Greenland or Scandi block, just a wedge of high pressure.  Actually the FV3 run today looked a stronger high to me, reinforces the view I expressed on this thread some days ago that this looks a similar but more significant event than Jan 2013.  Let's watch it unfold...

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ventrice must have an agreement with ec whereby he can tweet a certain number of restricted charts each week .....

 Chris Fawkes doesn’t ! 

Good answer!

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43 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Doesn't he work for BBC?  They don't see GloSea5 any more...they get their data from MeteoGroup.  Probably GFS ECM blend?

I think BBC can still access Met Office data though, I know it sounds strange but on our S4C (the Welsh language channel), their weather forecast says "in association with the Met Office" even though it's a part of the BBC  

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Good answer!

Yes but will it snow in Sheffield!!! sorry it's my BBC snowatch days kicking in

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