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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

We've being doing that for the past six weeks!!

😎

We’ve had nice little turn ups for the book though?, but re ahead compared to 24hrs ago when the models just showed constant zoneality...we see some uptick, and I still believe we’ll see some (surprising) decent winter bite over Christmas week.....but not the HLB prolonged deep cold.....not yet.

 

BFTP  

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Icon already better at 120 hrs on 12z ridging wise!!!😉

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14 minutes ago, ZK099 said:

This is from strat expert Judah Cohen. Personally I've never seen the PV being modelled to split into more than two vortices before. Will be interesting to see if it happens, and if it does what effect it has. Also suggests that a split is now likely due to a second heat flux being modelled. Watch this space. 

Screenshot_20181218-150652_Twitter.jpg

I only see one vortex segment on that chart?

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1 hour ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

As Meto are bullish and were hunting for cold, might as well start seeing what CFS (yes yes i know lol) is throwing out......

image.thumb.png.fda2361b49f23248290022f05a882c35.png

 

To be fair if the trop matches the stratosphere that is exactly what we should be seeing in a couple of weeks. Split vortex, biggest lobe being in Russia, residual one being in Canada.

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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

I only see one vortex segment on that chart?

That’s cos it’s for Boxing Day 

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3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I only see one vortex segment on that chart?

Because its a GIF ,

IF you could view it live it continues to show what is stated.

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s cos it’s for Boxing Day 

So Cohen posted a chart which didn't reflect what he was tweeting? 

No wonder folk get confused.

edit: Thanks All Aboard, explains it.

Edited by mountain shadow

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Well, this roller coaster ride is beginning to make me feel a little queasy with things looking more positive again today!  A dose of reverse psychology works a treat! 😀

Edited by Don

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ICON likely bringing a cold frosty high for christmas day/boxing day- 

Not a bad start to the 12zs..

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

ICON likely bringing a cold frosty high for christmas day/boxing day- 

Not a bad start to the 12zs..

Yes it should feel seasonal. If the high manages to ridge a bit more north in subsequent runs it can get more interesting.

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

Yes it should feel seasonal. If the high manages to ridge a bit more north in subsequent runs it can get more interesting.

AGreed.. 🙂

Not far from the shortest day, providing cloud stays away temps should plummet overnight ..

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

AGreed.. 🙂

Not far from the shortest day, providing cloud stays away temps should plummet overnight ..

A frosty Xmas morning can wet the appetite for later. Mind you, I would happily accept fog that lingers all day compared to the southerly dross that some charts were showing.

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Just while the 12z's roll out. Looking at the GEFS (upto the 06z) I'm feeling a bit more optimistic. Christmas day looks set to have a more seasonal feel with a growing consensus that high pressure will remain in charge.

image.thumb.png.18eff8803cfb0739eab597fbe5c0e7fc.png

The anticyclonic signal also looks strong for New Year. I wouldn't mind it too much as today has been thoroughly miserable.

image.thumb.png.81f124389d6ccde4a57f356d8d668650.png

I get the feeling the 1 or two cold runs in there may increase in number over future runs. Looking at the ens I don't think christmas is fully resolved yet. Will be interesting to see how soon any SSW can have an impact on the NH Circulation patterns. Until then calming down after this week.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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26 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Because its a GIF ,

IF you could view it live it continues to show what is stated.

You can embed tweets by just copying and pasting the url of them into the post 🙂 

 

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Anyone willing to have a stab at the conditions on the ground christmas eve on UKM 144?

Looks dry , i think?

GFS looks an improvement on the 6z @144 hours..

Edited by northwestsnow

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Big change already on gfs at 120 hours!!cold and frosty high and no southwesterlies!

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The swing to cold looks like beginning with this GFS, big changes for the better last few runs 

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At face value GFS 12z looked dry for christmas eve but in actual fact its a bit meh, with a bank of drizzle/light rain south of manchester..

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

At face value GFS 12z looked dry for christmas eve but in actual fact its a bit meh, with a bank of drizzle/light rain south of manchester..

Big south Westerly feed brings a lot of mousuire. Notice the front fragmenting at the 150 hour frame.

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

At face value GFS 12z looked dry for christmas eve but in actual fact its a bit meh, with a bank of drizzle/light rain south of manchester..

Yes and the UKMO is milder and drizzlier from what I can see. That low to the southwest is a huge pain!

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