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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Cmon northwest. Keep holding that nerve! A broken clock - remember?

Absolutely.. stand by what i wrote tho..

Hoping for a nice set of 12zs..

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Icon at 90 hours shifts the ridge very slightly west.

Probably not enough but at least it is not going the gfs way.

Edited by karyo
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Right you lot, when the beast struck end of feb this year the day it all kicked off was the day the wife and daughter traveled to Leeds for a specialist hospital visit and test, ( only 2 hospitals in the UK that specialise) well they were stranded in Leeds for 6 days due to the Snaw, well guess who is going back to Leeds on Monday 7th of January? yep the wife and daughter, it couldnt happen again  could it?

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

This morning's eps broadly similar to the previous run (Euro trough) but with the ridging in the Atlantic being located further west.

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
23 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

EC Ensembles

B03C5CC3-D051-4D92-850A-19DFB066B487.thumb.gif.7662c144348d6db0c810693390d253cd.gif

Cold D6/7/8 then uncertainty sets in big time!

 

GFS miles away from everyone else at around D10 because it keeps inexplicably ballooning low pressure systems near the UK and Iceland. The only world where this happens is if the SSW has 0% impact on the troposphere.

Edited by Snowy L
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
8 minutes ago, mulzy said:

This morning's eps broadly similar to the previous run (Euro trough) but with the ridging in the Atlantic being located further west.

I can’t see past day 11 but the difference at that timescale from previous output is startling to our west with large low anomoly withdrawn back to nw Atlantic and gentle high anomoly replacing ....assuming that low will trend east as the run progresses .....

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON significantly more amplified at T165

image.thumb.jpg.fe86bcd8ff0269f557ceb89991d87513.jpg

Decent run.

Agreed! It is more amplified that the 0z for the same timeframe.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

We just need that little extra push of amplification north eastwards. The ecm and ukmo are leading the way here. Tonight's runs will be fascinating!

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON significantly more amplified at T165

image.thumb.jpg.fe86bcd8ff0269f557ceb89991d87513.jpg

Decent run.

I had posted earlier that around this date looked ripe for upgrades. I am not going to re-post it all.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

3rd of Jan from the METO, how does this align to GFS/ECM

AA40533B-6EF2-4F53-A611-6E1EFF90540D.jpeg

And is this Mogreps ? 

Seems about right looking at ICON bitterly cold air into eastern Europe with the UK on the edge

icon-1-144.thumb.png.fdafcf46e562025a9715bdc0a877346b.pngicon-1-168.thumb.png.8ec9714337a9054a0510df0cb55b11a5.pngicon-1-180.thumb.png.620a64ef31c1ca3af7bc0ee01f1995cf.png

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

I see the GFS has backed off it’s crazy amp forecast. In a way, this could better.

A bit more faffing around in P5, which is par for the course, then a quick scoot through the western Pacific, still very amplified and hanging around P7 for a while before, you would expect, 8 then 1 to follow.

B0A2D215-B803-42D8-AA1C-73F748FD94DA.thumb.gif.880226d1566ae649c5b4372a6c7d6881.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Indeed. So close now

iconnh-0-168.png

So close to what? There’s too much energy coming out of that lobe of death and the ridge is doing nothing really it’s not going north it’s just slowly collapsing pushing the cold into Southern Europe.

Its more amplified but it’s simply not enough, we would require significant upgrades within that time frame which I’m not convinced by.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Just now, s4lancia said:

I see the GFS has backed off it’s crazy amp forecast. In a way, this could better.

A bit more faffing around in P5, which is par for the course, then a quick scoot through the western Pacific, still very amplified and hanging around P7 for a while before, you would expect, 8 then 1 to follow.

B0A2D215-B803-42D8-AA1C-73F748FD94DA.thumb.gif.880226d1566ae649c5b4372a6c7d6881.gif

Well, according to this forecast it reaches 7 and then starts to move backwards...

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
1 minute ago, karyo said:

Well, according to this forecast it reaches 7 and then starts to move backwards...

Normal that it will lose some intensity at that point but rather than looking at it as starting to move backwards, look at it as looping. Looping in a very good phase as well. And no where near the COD. I would bank that chart.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Just now, s4lancia said:

Normal that it will lose some intensity at that point but rather than looking at it as starting to move backwards, look at it as looping. Looping in a very good phase as well. And no where near the COD. I would bank that chart.

Yes, I suppose if it stalls at 7 it will be a best place than where we are now.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

So close to what? There’s too much energy coming out of that lobe of death and the ridge is doing nothing really it’s not going north it’s just slowly collapsing pushing the cold into Southern Europe.

Its more amplified but it’s simply not enough, we would require significant upgrades within that time frame which I’m not convinced by.

See my post at the top of this page. Now just imagine if the amplification upgraded to a similar extent by tomorrow's 12z run. It would be game on imo.

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
1 minute ago, tomjwlx said:

Please tell me i'm not the only one seeing major improvements already on GFS 12Z!

You not im seeing them also, better clearance of the low around Iceland not sure how much impact it will have later in the run

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

Well folks I know it's doom and gloom from the model outputs atm but no fear this is from gavs weather vids the jma monthly outlook it does show some light at the end of this very dark tonal. A bit of advice though don't look at the CFS V2.  https://youtu.be/ldrkSU_GffY
 

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