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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

As most people would expect, ignoring GFS garbage.

I don't understand the obsession with the current mild benign garbage?..hope the Gfs is right about things being shaken up with some colder unsettled weather as we head towards mid January and that hopefully the generally wintry mid January onwards signal remains intact!❄️

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

how he thought the ecm was like gfs as well is beyond me,having said that in this country mild normally wins if any  model is showing it in fl or whatever timeframe

TBF to IDO he was suggesting EC had moved towards GFS..

Anyway, looks cold and frosty early Jan.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
2 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

image.jpeg

Who needs TV when you have the SSW propagation saga! Pass me the pop corn please. .

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
20 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

3rd of Jan from the METO, how does this align to GFS/ECM

AA40533B-6EF2-4F53-A611-6E1EFF90540D.jpeg

And is this Mogreps ? 

1

I'd say the HP is slowly edging North and West there as broadly expected by myself and many other knowledgeable folks. The GFS runs will likely only be right in 1 in 4 of their daily runs with the 12z and 0z being the most reliable, not sure people jump all over them, to be honest.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
17 minutes ago, karyo said:

Who needs TV when you have the SSW propagation saga! Pass me the pop corn please. .

I hope it goes the 'facebook' way and those big guns start duking it out with sarcastic memes and obnoxious tweets, that'll get popcorn sales shifted....lol

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Has anyone seen the extended eps??

 

Come on Nick spill the beans ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Has anyone seen the extended eps??

 

Is that a leading question? Lol. Looked at debilt and definitely more colder runs in the 9 to 11 day timeframe.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Is that a leading question? Lol. Looked at debilt and definitely more colder runs in the 9 to 11 day timeframe.

Maybe even the ICON model is going to adjust west? That would be good. It would be very, very good!:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Can’t - weatherbell hasn’t updated .... wasn’t a leading question ....

Ah, ok lol. Well, I can look at debilt which everyone has access to.I'm sure you have seen them. Control looks like it could be interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, blizzard81 said:

Ah, ok lol. Well, I can look at debilt which everyone has access to.I'm sure you have seen them. Control looks like it could be interesting.

Just seen up to day 11 ... ongoing - the control undercuts 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Maybe even the ICON model is going to adjust west? That would be good. It would be very, very good!:cold:

It certainly would. Not long to find out now

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just seen up to day 11 ... ongoing - the control undercuts 

TBH if i had a quid for everytime i have heard' the control looks good ' over the years i would be a millionaire..

12zs soon be out, will GFS back down i wonder..

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Just seen up to day 11 ... ongoing - the control undercuts 

Wow! Now that is interesting Wasn't sure if it was just cold anticyclonic. Let's keep the faith. Much needed good news for us cold chasers. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
32 minutes ago, karyo said:

Who needs TV when you have the SSW propagation saga! Pass me the pop corn please. .

And what a bloody saga it’s been!  Still ongoing, too......

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH if i had a quid for everytime i have heard' the control looks good ' over the years i would be a millionaire..

12zs soon be out, will GFS back down i wonder..

Cmon northwest. Keep holding that nerve! A broken clock - remember?

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

EC Ensembles

B03C5CC3-D051-4D92-850A-19DFB066B487.thumb.gif.7662c144348d6db0c810693390d253cd.gif

Cold D6/7/8 then uncertainty sets in big time!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

EC Ensembles

B03C5CC3-D051-4D92-850A-19DFB066B487.thumb.gif.7662c144348d6db0c810693390d253cd.gif

Cold D6/7/8 then uncertainty sets in big time!

 

Uncertainty is a good sign in situations like this.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Certainly some interesting 12z suites await..given current by standings.......

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, blizzard81 said:

Uncertainty is a good sign in situations like this.

Absolutely agree! 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Just now, tight isobar said:

Certainly some interesting 12z suites await..given current by standings.......

Here's hoping sir

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