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Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Fair to say the operational is well supported mean at 168 looks a lot like the the op, rather flat ensemble suite, another GFS vs ECM egg on face situation, both have been consistent... one must be wrong.

33873701-7C05-47EB-8F90-00257480C2FE.png

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having just read the start thread still some doubt as to how the SSW will be felt at trop level seems the reversal not going to plan - maybe the models are showing no cold because that is what we are getting no cold !

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38 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

For anyone watching these models thinking nothing is going to happen and no sign of cold etc think again! Models will NOT pick up on any propagation until the bitterly cold air from the actual polar Vortex filters down from the stratosphere to our atmosphere! This is forecast to happen around the 7th Jan. And for anyone thinking the SSW isn't happening, It's already happening Jet stream has already reversed in some places: Bering Sea shows easterly zonal wind at 10 hPa. The models WILL change in a few days time. It's all still to early to be seen! Some on here seem to be writing things off before it's even begun.

Not really sure what you mean by that as most of the major models are technically advanced enough to take into account SSW situations and do process strat conditions when producing any output. For you to say the models categorically WILL change is false, some warmings can take 3 weeks to take effect.

Edited by Weathizard

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Chris Fawkes is not convinced the warming is going to affect the troposphere and there will be no reversal of zonal winds.

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ECM is fine again, no deep lows in the Iceland area. We really are in the same place we were in the days before the 2013 SSW. I think the fact this SSW was forecast so long ago, end of November if I remember correctly, some fatigue has set in. The SSW has not happened yet. If this SSW follows the 2013 path, then first week of Jan we will see lows weakening in our area/ Iceland then middle of Jan we will see northern blocking.

Also some baseless forecasts of cold in the middle of December and then the end of December by a few won't have helped the whole fatigue issue.

Edited by Snowy L

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2 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Chris Fawkes is not convinced the warming is going to affect the troposphere and there will be no reversal of zonal winds.

This is because it’s never guaranteed and it’s still a little early to tell - I don’t think it’s because of certain models not showing it. Just a waiting game. The SSW and reversal of winds is pretty nailed on. 

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The latest departure from the Euros by the GFS is now to run some weak shortwave energy se through the high .

However the GFS 06 hrs run is a slight improvement upstream around day 5 , more energy is heading se .

Compare the 06 hrs with the 00 hrs and you’ll see this change .

There’s also less energy spilling east , the area to look at is near the Azores and north of there , note more dig se and then a weakening of that shortwave .

Lets hope this is resolved tonight !

PS NCEP prefer slower upstream solutions .

Edited by nick sussex

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17 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Fair to say the operational is well supported mean at 168 looks a lot like the the op, rather flat ensemble suite, another GFS vs ECM egg on face situation, both have been consistent... one must be wrong.

33873701-7C05-47EB-8F90-00257480C2FE.png

Am telling you now gfs will be correct cos its just our luck!!i bet even if the mean showed a solid freeze up and the ecm showed mild we would end up mild!!again its just our horrrible luck and ive seen it far too many times over the years!!

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Please no more about Chris Fawkes...we know his thoughts about this winter (he might be right) but he's certainly tweeting every image he can which backs up his thoughts and showing lack of propagation of the down welling...we seem to be hearing more from him than any other Meteorologist or Strat person currently and I don't believe he's one 'hunting' for cold.

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would suggests he looks at the back end of the ensemble suites closely from right now through the next week or so's worth of runs.

In fairness, several times this winter already we’ve had the far reaches of FI showing eye candy, I remember around mid December or so we were all salivating about charts at the start of January end of December, and the METO were on board and it’s all been pushed back and filtered down so to speak.

The frustration from some on here is understandable, it’s difficult to be patient when the chase seems to have no end at times I think we’ve all seen winters like this were it keeps getting later and then suddenly it’s march. (Usually when it snows in recent years ironically), it is frustrating but we’ve been in far worse positions 1/3 of the way through winter, there’s plenty of possibilities so got to keep the hopes up as frustrating as it can get!

Edited by Weathizard

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43 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

For anyone watching these models thinking nothing is going to happen and no sign of cold etc think again! Models will NOT pick up on any propagation until the bitterly cold air from the actual polar Vortex filters down from the stratosphere to our atmosphere! This is forecast to happen around the 7th Jan. And for anyone thinking the SSW isn't happening, It's already happening Jet stream has already reversed in some places: Bering Sea shows easterly zonal wind at 10 hPa. The models WILL change in a few days time. It's all still to early to be seen! Some on here seem to be writing things off before it's even begun.

don’t agree - the 500hpa models were showing the affects of the feb warming five days before it occurred. All the atmospheric levels are part of the same model 

20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Are the models not programmed to take stratospheric warming’s and propagation into account? 

Yes they are but that doesn’t mean they are good at the interaction between the upper levels and into the trop 

13 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Not really sure what you mean by that as most of the major models are technically advanced enough to take into account SSW situations and do process strat conditions when producing any output. For you to say the models categorically WILL change is false, some warmings can take 3 weeks to take effect.

Not wrong 

7 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Chris Fawkes is not convinced the warming is going to affect the troposphere and there will be no reversal of zonal winds.

Reversal winds in the trop - yes,  but not in the strat where they have already reversed high up 

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

In fairness, several times this winter already we’ve had the far reaches of FI showing eye candy, I remember around mid December or so we were all salivating about charts at the start of January end of December, and the METO were on board and it’s all been pushed back and filtered down so to speak.

The frustration from some on here is understandable, it’s difficult to be patient when the chase seems to have no end at times I think we’ve all seen winters like this were it keeps getting later and then suddenly it’s march. (Usually when it snows in recent years ironically)

TBH anything early Jan was either going to be reliant on an INITIAL split SSW and prompt downwelling or a trop led pattern, at no point was this ever an odds on shot.

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12 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Chris Fawkes is not convinced the warming is going to affect the troposphere and there will be no reversal of zonal winds.

Regarding not affecting the Troposphere, fair enough if that’s his opinion, plenty of SSWs don’t. What’s his specific reasoning behind it though?

Regards no reversal. I thought he based all his stuff on the GFS ? In which case, I’m not sure what he talking about. It has been showing an u wind reversal as an SSW for ages and is now only about 3 days away. 

Edited by s4lancia

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SSWs are like people , lots of different personalities and mood swings !

I’d urge some caution until the reversal has actually happened . 

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55 minutes ago, karyo said:

There is no denying that this December has been horrid and it is running 2.2c above the seasonal average!

Out of interest, how often have we had a cold winter month after a December with such a strong warm anomaly?

2,2 above average temperature is nothing, we had 6-8 degrees above average both december 2006 and 2013

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53 minutes ago, karyo said:

There is no denying that this December has been horrid and it is running 2.2c above the seasonal average!

Out of interest, how often have we had a cold winter month after a December with such a strong warm anomaly?

I’m sure I’ve seen that some of the worst winters have come after a milder start to the winter. This of course might not be the case this winter but with lots going on in the atmosphere if your a cold lover there could be some exciting times a head going into January. 

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38 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Are the models not programmed to take stratospheric warming’s and propagation into account? 

Yes they are which is why some of the fi charts have given hints of it and for good reason! It's all still fi! The effects haven't appeared in the models because it's to far out and not enough data for the models to start processing from the lower unless there is a qtr which at the moment there isnt so all you'll get is model bias in fi for the time being untill effects start to show at lower levels. 

Edited by Rapodo

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The GFS P 06 hrs run is an improvement on the earlier run at day 5 .

A westwards shift , less energy spilling east .

Edited by nick sussex

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11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

SSWs are like people , lots of different personalities and mood swings !

I’d urge some caution until the reversal has actually happened . 

Indeed Nick,i think a few newer members should put the brakes on a bit with the outlook over the next month or so imo.

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29 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Please no more about Chris Fawkes...we know his thoughts about this winter (he might be right) but he's certainly tweeting every image he can which backs up his thoughts and showing lack of propagation of the down welling...we seem to be hearing more from him than any other Meteorologist or Strat person currently and I don't believe he's one 'hunting' for cold.

He is not posting what he wants it’s what he actually sees in the models,,,a lot on here post charts they want to see which aren’t happening as the cold is always 10+ days away which it has been since November,,,so maybe a mild call is possibly correct 

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Keep an eye on the final frames of the gfs and see how quickly it changes from a flat zonal to a disrupted vortex. The info is avalible to the models. Look at the last run for example from the 10th to the 13th the signs have already been there on a few runs and its in fi because that's where it belongs there will be no response from the ssw till the 7th. We're a long way from seeing the full effects in the models if at all yet. Hence I give it Monday for it start appearing better in fi

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