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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

GFS looks almost identical to its earlier run to me, if anything the 12z had sharper ridging. Not trying to rain on anyone’s parade I just think people seem to dismiss the GFS when it doesn’t show a good outcome.

887E788E-6FA9-47CA-872E-C641404D0861.png

A59C59C3-60A9-4778-8678-DD3D903B1265.png

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
12 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Again. The ICON was the best model hands down during the run up to the 2018 Beast. It didn’t just guess the outcome and get lucky

I think it's a fab model. 

Those complaining can ignore it if they wish. No one has to use it...

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The ICON is okay, certainly not cannon fodder at least at it has its favourable quirks as it comes with a lot of free to view information.

Moving on, well a lot of money is being bet on the strat response suddenly appearing in the models for week 2 to drive that UK hign further north, it will topple regardless but the further north it gets to deeper the cold pool advected into Europe which could then move westwards. At the moment the day 5-8 range shows a weak northerly which could bring isolated wintry showers to north sea coasts. That said a move to bring a front south across the UK to clear away the cloud would be a good thing as mild and dull doesn't really cut it for me.

I get the feeling that the uk high could remain in place for longer than is currently projected as the strong jetstreak coming out of the states is reduced somewhat but the high never gets far enougn north to bring bitter cold, the upstream set up just seems to want to throw up ridges from the Azores which is a problem when your major route out of this is to drive low pressure.... towards the Azores....

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Spot the difference, but of course all the GFS lovers will say nothings changing-

A major step to the Icon.

81AD67D8-EA0C-4E7C-9E59-C20CAD014FF5.thumb.png.ce4f8e73ce48fc2fbecf7e612a518657.png24E5CC04-94A3-4CB0-8F0F-118BB73CF024.thumb.png.e1004fe1a6e877aec46feac5dbbad943.png

But Steve do you think these miniscule changes of a few mile or so going to make much of difference for us in uk how far do you think this is going to be corrected west?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

OK so we are getting to the point on the pub run where uncertainty reigns afterwards, so what can we bank, T150 vs T156 on 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.580e7679e090fb5e141c223c9cea0958.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.433bb3845645220ff632727e63fd6acc.jpg

More amplified upstream, will take a few runs before we have a confident forecast at even this kind of timescale...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Just now, booferking said:

But Steve do you think these miniscule changes of a few mile or so going to make much of difference for us in uk how far do you think this is going to be corrected west?

Not in one run, however over a succession of runs, plus amplify that westward correction from T120 now out to 162 & your about 2-300 miles west with the cold Thetas

814AA924-3874-469F-A68B-74E31CED642B.thumb.png.fba14172652911b2a651d5ba45d90ef3.png7E1D5B46-F55B-4014-8FD1-506AF4337368.thumb.png.3395585cc72507e1605b0e791dccca7f.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Daft..

All raw models are in some way of reliance..

Its how you put/view the jigsaw..and mix in other supporting..

Thats the ultimate to both forecast..and decipher..

The datas factored in..are at most times hit..and miss @96-144 hrs.(post)

And when-AS NOW there is a major,cause of miss dynamics.polar/upper atmos..some would do well to take that onboard!...

Split/match...interp!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

NE Poland/Belarus look frigid at 156 hours!!

image.thumb.png.51c726f81686f29a83ac4c4c43ecd412.png

Proper arctic blast for them!

Nothing particularly out of the ordinary for them though! Greece and Turkey seem to have more bloody cold than us nowadays!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Weathizard said:

Nothing particularly out of the ordinary for them though! Greece and Turkey seem to have more bloody cold than us nowadays!

Some warm uppers around moscow ..

+12 uppers lol

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Jeez- GFS looks horrendous by 162 hours- 

Don't even want to contemplate that being right.

That bloated Azores High. Again. The climate is changing and that is one aspect of it - cells of tropical high pressure becoming larger and displaced further north. A wonderful summer pattern for England by the way!

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I just want to add.. re the ICON and last season.. I had made a post in my regional thread at the time, showing a graph of accuracies and mean errors, admittedly only over a 5 day period, but  it was 4th behind the WRF, the Finnish version of the Hirlam, the Swedish version of the Hirlam and the MF Arome. The GFS was further down the list, but that was due to being a lower resolution I expect.

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Lets see what the GEFS say as surely there would be some support by now. To date I've not seen one single chart or ensemble that brings anything significant. For me, that high is 'going down' whether we like it or not. I'd absolutely love to be wrong but I just cant see it. Even if we get a westerly correction the bigger picture doesn't change, we just get a couple of cold days.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Jeez- GFS looks horrendous by 162 hours- 

Don't even want to contemplate that being right.

It's a lot better than the 12z - frosty looking at the theta e charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.21c9849033a80c50d45534166b4f17f0.png

Look at the size of the PV!!

 

One can only hope this is the implosion before the explosion. Can't remember who mentioned it but apparently the PV can often strengthen just before a major warming event?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I just want to add.. re the ICON and last season.. I had made a post in my regional thread at the time, showing a graph of accuracies and mean errors, admittedly only over a 5 day period, but  it was 4th behind the WRF, the Finnish version of the Hirlam, the Swedish version of the Hirlam and the MF Arome. The GFS was further down the list, but that was due to being a lower resolution I expect.

Was that the ICON global model or the ICON-EU regional model which was pi** poor, didn't even show convective showers that were actually happening in the March spell - important we don't diss the wrong model if they have similar names?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Blue will post it or a description of it soon i'm sure....

I dont think he gets it until tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Just now, Jason M said:

Lets see what the GEFS say as surely there would be some support by now. To date I've not seen one single chart or ensemble that brings anything significant. For me, that high is 'going down' whether we like it or not. I'd absolutely love to be wrong but I just cant see it. Even if we get a westerly correction the bigger picture doesn't change, we just get a couple of cold days.

I agree. I know we always get the 'never wish for a reset to zonal' argument but it's got to be better than this tedium we are suffering right now. And the Met office are seeing an unsettled spell before cold sets in mid January. Most of us want the MO to be right so surely we should be egging on an unsettled spell so the MO forecast remains on track?

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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I dont think he gets it until tomorrow.

Over on 33andrain there is a brief breakdown by John Homenuk. Indicates -NAO into week 3 and 4 - unsure if West or East based NAO.

Edited by Bullseye
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