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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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19 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now established at 10mb level.  They expect this flow direction to run down to the troposphere in the coming days ( the start of the reversing the westerly flow for much of Northern Europe including the British Isles ). This will impact on the models in the next 48 hours. So hopefully some good looking winter charts for you lot just around the corner.  Will be watching from far a field with great interest. Bye for now and a happy New Year to all our forum members, young and old ! 

C

Thank you buddy for this information. We can only hope for the best.

In the evening runs I find the UKMO model quite interesting at 144 h. Statistical comparision has shown us that if we compare the GFS, ECMWF, UKMO models together, that UKMO model was even the second on the list right behind the ECMWF model. The GFS came just third on the list. It also depends on the situation.

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.36a9fc9a445f0ec3ebdb4d9fe865c4a9.GIF

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Last one from me for 6 weeks before I leave in the morning for Canada . Our experts we use in resort have told me that todays upper air soundings over the Russian Arctic are showing Easterlies now est

After a health scare I have had the best news ever and been given the all clear. What a year it has been weather wise.Just like to take the opportunity to wish Paul,all The moderating team a

Afternoon so 2 hours on the train should be plenty of time for a post- The last 2 weeks the projected SSW has gradually worked through the models & is now 'imminent' ~ 30hours away is when we

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42 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM Mean 144 V GFS 144 Mean shows the eastward bias of the GFS, also if you scroll through the GFS at 144 they are all over the shop!

0450D22C-98AE-41D2-91B3-DC8CF710C25C.thumb.png.444f6b7ff4395fe9349f64d27b9f58af.pngE05AE5F3-9045-42FF-9301-CC5794C801D0.thumb.png.e2267fc171dd8ba9e64e623a2bbefcf0.png

maybe ECM's westward bias? Let's be honest, we would have had a lot more snow over the years if the GFS could just be ignored or it always simply caught up with the ECM.

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State of flux is the best term to apply to the models at the moment = so expect further probable wild swings in the days ahead as they get to grips with the projected flushing out of the zonal winds - which are forecast to collapse. 

GFS has flipped quite a bit in the past few runs, 12z forecasts showing significant amplification with a southerly tracking - plausible, but perhaps too must gusto to it, and too much easterly bias. ECM showing a 13-15 Dec scenario with the block holding firm against a weakening trough to our west. A middle ground scenario would bring fairly typical January fayre, temps about average with something wintry for the north.

The atlantic is very fragile right now at the time of year when it should be most rampant, and typically we turn a corner come early Jan, when high pressure has an easier time in overriding it - and ever more so as we move further through winter..

 

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1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

State of flux is the best term to apply to the models at the moment = so expect further probable wild swings in the days ahead as they get to grips with the projected flushing out of the zonal winds - which are forecast to collapse, from a very weak base state relative to the time of year anyhow.

GFS has flipped quite a bit in the past few runs, 12z forecasts showing significant amplification with a southerly tracking - plausible, but perhaps too must gusto to it, and too much easterly bias. ECM showing a 13-15 Dec scenario with the block holding firm against a weakening trough to our west. A middle ground scenario would bring fairly typical January fayre, temps about average with something wintry for the north.

The atlantic is very fragile right now at the time of year when it should be most rampant, and typically we turn a corner come early Jan, when high pressure has an easier time in overriding it - and ever more so as we move further through winter..

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Redbull165 said:

Thank you buddy for this information. We can only hope for the best.

In the evening runs I find the UKMO model quite interesting at 144 h. Statistical comparision has shown us that if we compare the GFS,ECMWF,UKMO models together, that UKMO model was even the second on the list right behind the ECMWF model. It also depends on the situation.

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.36a9fc9a445f0ec3ebdb4d9fe865c4a9.GIF

Yes it is interesting. Certainly has the coldest air massing just to the east. Where the high relocates will be important. GFS/ECM seem likely it to sink it a bit and cut off further cold air advection into Europe /Eastern Britain. UKMO positioning looks the best placed for it to develop further towards Scandinavia , then Bingo. However, we know this can change in the morning.

C

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Actually this is a decent run from ICON. T120 Z500 and jet stream 

image.thumb.jpg.4148edc5e920e65ccea1327567feddd3.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.588b2526abbfb48d3ec72e6cbed12e19.jpg

Does anyone else see the polar bear in the second one??

From a parrot to a polar bear, the cold is on it's way mate ??

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Actually this is a decent run from ICON. T120 Z500 and jet stream 

 

 

Does anyone else see the polar bear in the second one??

Don't know about a polar bear, it might be bigfoot.

Apologies for drifting off topic.

Regarding the models, is this the longest entropy period we've ever had waiting for a clear outcome?

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There’s a subtle difference here at the end of the Icon 18z.

EDD40519-98B6-4744-B8DC-B5B285A81B2A.thumb.png.4a08386ecfe03e6bbd6af3dbe775d754.png

The ridging is clearly better but the high itself retrogresses everso slightly north. Up to now, it has slowly sunk back by this stage. May be nothing, watch this space though, this would be exactly the improvement we could be looking for if we want this to turn into something of note.

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Thankfully the ECM said no to the GFS.

If we could just squeeze a bit more amplification upstream that makes a big difference downstream to bringing that cold further west .

It’s tantalizingly sitting there , goading us!

 

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7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I think most people would disagree especially after it did so fantastically well with the beast this year..

So the GFS is up & running, westward corrections expected...

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. It’s the same old story on here, people want it to be true so it gets coverage, when in all likelihood the GFS is far more likely to be correct than the ICON.

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22 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The icon is a chocolate teapot!! To be fair to them they hit the jackpot releasing their runs before everyone else’s, gets them a lot of hits!!

Yeah it’s useless. Don’t know why people bother looking at it. There’s a reason the pros never use it.

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3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. It’s the same old story on here, people want it to be true so it gets coverage, when in all likelihood the GFS is far more likely to be correct than the ICON.

Indeed...The ICON hardly ever gets a mention, so long as the GFS and ECM remain broadly 'on board'. A couple of days' unfavourable 'model bias' and it's the best thing since sliced bread...?

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