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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

An encouraging ecm op run. It seems to get very confused towards the end, hence the messy ending. The pain in the backside are those stubborn heights over Iberia and France. If it wasn't for this, we would be going into the freezer on that run. 

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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL

Thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

4/5 good GEFS at day 9 keeping the high over us and starting to pull colder air our way

96EC8FA5-2C27-4E99-811F-795277F9EB06.png

I'm going for this as the way forward, more models perhaps clinging onto this approach in the mid-term as we get nearer New Year's day. Blocked by Atlantic High due West of us and winds backing North to NorthEast (maybe Easterly) by end of the first working week of January.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
6 minutes ago, LRD said:

Unfortunately, it looks like ECM is going to develop a SW'ly in its last frame

 

However the ECM is slowly trending in the right direction in it's earlier frames, the amplification to the high has been increasing last few runs. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The latter stages of the GFS Para show slightly colder zonality than the GFS ordinary:

image.thumb.png.8429190f1694a9333cc00dbb3c2cc1d9.png

But by the very end, it's back to a TR guessing game:

image.thumb.png.ec7397e9501f6e868d677262552f4638.png

 

PS: I do hope that keithlucky (Wales thread) has got it wrong, and that Krakow has not erupted!

Edited by Ed Stone
Wrong image.
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Anybody else get that feeling that the GFS is about to perform a massive flip in about 3hrs time and this place will go into melt down once more. its normally the way with real deep cold in the UK, the big guns run around blind as a bat for days only for ECM to pick up the baton and then the others jump in line just in time for the ECM to have a wobble before the way forward emerges, and then we all start the uppers debate the shift west shift east with each run then about when the cold spell is 3 days out the hunt for the breakdown starts. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
18 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

You beat me to it feb...

The change is a decent evo-as we stand..its a splitter..

And shouts flip..and arange!!!

It doesn't look like one of the all time greats to me though IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It doesn't look like one of the all time greats to me though IMO.

So what would a favouable chart look like compared to what we are currently seeing? 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

At this point we just want to see a colder regime established, at this point in the winter lots of time for even better setups to develop, but first kill off the Euro high and without raging zonality. Then we're halfway home. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

In a word. No.

The Ecm has already reverted back 1 frame from its 0z op. It has no backing from the gfs, Met office etc. The Ecm is progressive as usual and will jump to the gfs solution by its 12z tmw. 

Gfs also models that area far better. Unfortunately. 

Does it have support from the ukmo? I would say yes

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

So what would a favouable chart look like compared to what we are currently seeing? 

 

Strat or trop?

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Strat or trop?

Can we combine them?  Call it something like, i dunno, strop? 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
48 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Atlantics hit the wall...

Awaits undercut

DD700A64-DB51-4783-9303-28E02ECD07D6.thumb.png.751fd32a79286b44e61deb619bd3e46f.png

NB again QTR to strat....

 

 

Not a chance from that...heights remain over Spain/SW Europe, looks good at 144 - 198 but the fly in the ointment is still that main low which doesn't advect northwards (near Greenland) followed by the feature developing from near the Azores and then 'balloons' ...another near miss on the cards or the building blocks?

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Strat or trop?

Strat , just trying to get my head around what you guys are looking for when looking for colder forecasts.

Sorry for all the questions and i know i should research it more before coming in here but you lot got me hooked.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
2 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

Strat , just trying to get my head around what you guys are looking for when looking for colder forecasts.

Sorry for all the questions and i know i should research it more before coming in here but you lot got me hooked.

You could combine the two and just call it a strop

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
16 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

In a word. No.

The Ecm has already reverted back 1 frame from its 0z op. It has no backing from the gfs, Met office etc. The Ecm is progressive as usual and will jump to the gfs solution by its 12z tmw. 

Gfs also models that area far better. Unfortunately. 

Under normal circumstances yes, not when a disruption to the vortex has happened. During the last two SSWs ECM went for cold and GFS went for mild, ECM won both times. GFS is just wrong at d8-d12. The Iceland/East Greenland area is where our gap in the split vortex will be during the next few days. ECM is beginning to see this in its tropospheric output by starting to rapidly weaken lows that approach this area. GFS bringing a huge polar vortex over the East Greenland region in the mid range is going to be way off imo.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h500slp.png h500slp.png

The 12z GFS did feature a significant gain of heights across Scandinavia compared to the 06z and 00z. Perhaps this represents a nod of sorts to what ECM's produced this eve.

The more the ridge through the UK stays amplified and resists the Atlantic, the greater the potential to drive some stratospheric wave-breaking right where we need it to open the door for the reversal downwelling process. GFS' instance on flattening the ridge quickly is closely tied into it's bleak lower-stratosphere evolutions.

 

Important to bear in mind that the MJO composites only go so far in isolation; the atmospheric response beyond the tropics must also be considered by looking to the GWO. If the MJO propagates on east as per ECM/EPS, AAM will surge upward, with the GWO heading through P5, and the ridge through the UK will have much more of a fighting chance against the Atlantic trough than the MJO P6 composite suggests.

Currently, it seems to me that GFS' huge amplification of the MJO in P5-6 is causing it to 'drown out' the extratropical component of the response.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
18 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

Strat , just trying to get my head around what you guys are looking for when looking for colder forecasts.

Sorry for all the questions and i know i should research it more before coming in here but you lot got me hooked.

image.thumb.png.11b80e329f83627f9d5c07968607bb0e.pngimage.thumb.png.82ab958b9a1b053e9094abc6882bb4ea.png

January 13 and Janoary 09

See the distance between the lobes and no residual energy in the Atlantic.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL

So the residual energy is heat from the Atlantic?

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter

Can anyone clarify what actually causes a SSW?  I know the stratosphere is stratified with cooler air closer to Earth and warmer air higher up near the ozone layer (UV light from the Sun is absorbed in this region) but I am puzzled by what mechanism could cause such a dramatic change in temperature.

EDIT: Okay so after a little search on the Met Office site they mention the breaking of waves in the Polar Jet that then cause the air in the stratosphere to collapse.  Quite strange how this doesn't occur every winter.  

Edited by Evening Star
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Nowt to worry!!!

reinforcements are on the way

pole10_nh.thumb.gif.352f6d21fbf46cfa918f818857b975b5.gifAlienatedGoldenAfricanaugurbuzzard-max-1mb.gif.8f745f7b49b334b542044aa7cbab1940.gif1f0N.gif.8c02f268ecb923077f5d72b387512926.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
15 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

So the residual energy is heat from the Atlantic?

Any residual chunk of the vortex, thats why i dont think the current one is necessarily as good as previous split SSW's

See here, its in Eastern Canada, this can translate to a residual bit of trop vortex firing up, where as in the other examples, the split is wide and far and nice clean heights right where we want them.

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018122712&var=HGT&lev=30mb&hour=228

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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