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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Eric Dier, for most of the run, but the last few charts scream potential!

image.thumb.png.c9b9e5dc9e3d6db4edd0eef681a84879.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
8 minutes ago, Bruegelian said:

Seriously though, might Fawkes be right even thought most of us hope he's wrong? Why would the SSW struggle to affect the troposphere? Of course SSW is not a silver bullet.

Read the article from Simon Lee about generally 2 types of SSW's on the Start thread, this one appears different to Feb 2018 and some models are struggling with the downward propagation into the trop...but as he mentions this SSW is in a tentative stage currently so we might still get lucky

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
11 minutes ago, Nick F said:

However, UKMO's (and EC on it to) strong NW Europe block signal at day 6 hardly inspires confidence of model guidance beyond day 6 ...

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.310a2dacecb43f8340396684496ca632.png

Sadly that's the one I back. Got a feeling this HIgh is going to go well beyond it's welcome. Lala land GFS does offer some faint hope.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Eric Dier, for most of the run, but the last few charts scream potential!

image.thumb.png.c9b9e5dc9e3d6db4edd0eef681a84879.png

Looks like an old fashion toppler...but better than anything over the last few weeks!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
9 minutes ago, booferking said:

528 dam line through the country some low lying areas would see snow also.

gfs-3-228.png

The flow from the West doesn't look cold enough for most lowland, especially the further south you are, probably above 200m and your in with an increasing shot, especially in the NW.

I do feel that the 12z is much better in it's handling of the Arctic, that strong +very AO always was going to be rubbish with all the factors currently in play. With that said, vast differences in how the models evolve the USA pattern and that has a big impact on whether the high does actually collapse.

Wouldn't be the first time the gfs has overshot cold too far south and vigoursly and caused the jet to be forecasted too strong and the high actually does stay in situ after all...

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom

I'm not getting hung up past this weekend. We've already seen huge improvements from 1 January onward. Give it a few days..

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Quite noticeable differences between UKMO/GFS at 144-GFS much keener to remove the high .

Over to EC..

4/5 good GEFS at day 9 keeping the high over us and starting to pull colder air our way

96EC8FA5-2C27-4E99-811F-795277F9EB06.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
47 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Mmmm. GFS was getting a lot of stick this morning. Of course it may still be wrong, I hope it is. However, the ICON has trended away from its 6z run. Let’s see what the GEFS and ECM show. 

I really hope GFS is wrong from 4th Jan

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
12 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Sadly that's the one I back. Got a feeling this HIgh is going to go well beyond it's welcome. Lala land GFS does offer some faint hope.

Well I’ll probably be very unpopular for saying this, but if that high can’t position itself favorably to bring us what we all crave for in our hunt for the obvious then the Gfs solution along with the met office forecast of a potentially ramped up jet early January is of far more interest than a mind numbingly boring Slug to our south as has been the case so far this Christmas. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

One assumes the ec agrees .... he cannot tweet ec data 

Given nothing too outlandish shows up on the 00z ECM ensembles you would have to think that the impact upto 360hrs out isn't that noticeable, at least for our sector.

The big difference in E.America is between 120-144hrs and those differences are vast.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, kold weather said:

Given nothing too outlandish shows up on the 00z ECM ensembles you would have to think that the impact upto 360hrs out isn't that noticeable, at least for our sector.

One would hope he isn’t just referencing a qtr but the probably absence of any downwelling wave in jan

we can all see the lack of a QTR across the modelling 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

GEFS have PLENTY of interesting NH profiles in FI again, can this finally start gathering pace now I wonder. Heights starting to head North in various places. 

887E9847-F98A-41A7-85FC-35A462A2256F.png

60D40B63-C7F2-4E3F-87CB-E68813DF0727.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Not the greatest starts to the evening.

Our emergency straw clutch model the ICON is waiting to abandon ship , the UKMO isn’t as good as this morning .

The problem is we can’t seem to get the high sufficiently north , and then we can’t get sufficient jet cut back towards the Low Countries .

The GEFS has no support for any favourable topple towards Scandi . What’s bizarre are the huge differences between the MJO forecasts , the ECM, GFS and GEM all disagree .

The GFS goes off the chart in terms of amplitude towards phase 6 , the ECM is weaker and goes into that phase but skirts with the COD . The GEM looks like a middle ground solution between both .

Going back to the outputs NCEP prefer slower upstream solutions which suggests the GFS is being too premature with shunting the ridge away .

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
37 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

One would hope he isn’t just referencing a qtr but the probably absence of any downwelling wave in jan

we can all see the lack of a QTR across the modelling 

I don’t expect to see a QTR until wave 2 develops. SSW/wave 1 is not enough, had I not observed wave 2 then I wouldn’t have been confident of a UK cold spell. 7-10 minimum to see true evolution of Stratospheric influences.

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
4 hours ago, snowrye said:

Reading all these posts is utterly confusing,1 posts 1 thing,1 posts something completely opposite,and on top of that,the hunt for cold thread,has turned into the ssw thread,seems all hope is being pinned on this,although it doesn't guarantee cold,I admit,I know very little about it,but even though its only december,it seems this will be make or break the winter,seems to be getting harder and harder every winter,yes,we had a mini beast from east in march,but from a snow perspective,It wasn't that great in my location,compared to places only a couple of miles up the rd.

Feb 1986, one of the coldest months of the 20th century, had above average zonal winds:oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Note ECM & JMA energy splits at 96 ECM & currently 84 JMA

GFS very isolated tonight- 

Looks a slam dunk QTR to me- 

 

ECM strat V ECM day 7

87A1AC16-CDE5-48B5-8E0D-35D81C90D88A.thumb.jpeg.b4facf9ffbe716379368d5f9f1c2f4a4.jpeg

The problem is its really a stretching rather than a true split, hence why the resultant trop ridge is likely to get flattened pretty quickly.

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