Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[SMU]

ECM quite poor tonight, out of kilter with the general consensus... JMA very similar to the UKMO/ GEM blend-

No UKMO 168

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Thank god someone is talking sense, I’ve always thought the downward effects of SSW can take several weeks to show itself (data) so why peeps here keep on looking at the models (240h to 300h +) and expecting is beyond me.

can live in hope dancer with wings, like last years hopefully, the beast gave good snow Feb 27-03 Mar, then mini beast on 17th

[Banbury]

18 minutes ago, swfc said:

I'd be very wary pinning my hopes on there forcasts regarding any specific time!!! Any new members should be careful not to get there hopes up esp with a SSW and where the dice fall.tbh during SSW or not we should see at least s cold spell imo

Exactly right 

Though its worth reading the 15-30 dayer on a regular basis to see if anything is being picked , currently its mentioning everything , as for an SSW no one can say with any confidence what will happen with regards cold and snow for the UK 

[Banbury]

24 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Calm down, just said what’s been well documented over the last god knows how many days. This isn’t your standard winter setup right now, if it was I’d agree with what your saying. I’m saying we WILL see charts you dream of in the next days start to roll out.. followed probably by oh my god winters over charts the very next run (if you’re that way inclined). Fact remains we are potentially on the cusp of something amazing. Disagree with that then that’s fine by me... move on. 

Calm lol ……...trust me weather isn't something to get hot under the collar about

I am merely coming back to you after you said I will be coming back mid January to say " I got it wrong " ROFL

I haven't commented on anything for mid January so how can I possibly be wrong LOL

Yes I am disagreeing with you ………so lets move on 

 

 

Edited December 26, 2018 by Banbury

[bluearmy]

The eps spreads keep a cluster with the upper ridge further nw ...... no reason that the ec op won’t jump over next run and then the mood changes ..... until it jumps back again ! 

[nick sussex]

Short and sweet review at day 6 !

GFS crap 

ECM crap

UKMO good 

ICON okay 

JMA okay verging on good 

GEM okay 

NAVGEM average 

The big problem is the upstream troughing. Unless sufficient energy heads south and se then any ridge will be flattened .

The opportunity is day 6 into 7 because that’s when the upstream pattern amplifies over the ne USA.

 

[snowray]

58 minutes ago, karyo said:

I totally understand people's disappointment. The charts would have been a bit easier to accept if we had some cold and snow already but we clearly haven't and the wait continues.

Thats why I wanted to bank some snow in November and from the Scandi high earlier this month...had zilch. Wouldn't have felt so bad if we had seen a few flakes by now, but people kept saying, don't worry about this lot, the really good stuff is just round the corner! I can never understand that way of thinking, you know second bite of the cherry and round two talk.

[nick sussex]

27 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM quite poor tonight, out of kilter with the general consensus... JMA very similar to the UKMO/ GEM blend-

No UKMO 168

Typical ! Just when we really wanted to see it’s day 7 chart . Shame the ECM couldn’t go on shutdown . I would have felt better if I hadn’t been subjected to its horror show .

[Mokidugway]

 

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Typical ! Just when we really wanted to see it’s day 7 chart . Shame the ECM couldn’t go on shutdown . I would have felt better if I hadn’t been subjected to its horror show .

Mexican wall model

[feb1991blizzard]

@Quicksilver1989

Isn't the SST's just determined by the Atlantic Multi-decadal  Oscillation and will by definition have colder and warmer phases.

[nick sussex]

NCEP have rubbished the GFS and GEFS early on  . They also don’t like any of the op runs in the later timeframe because of poor continuity . This is good because they’re underwhelming .

Edited December 26, 2018 by nick sussex

[fromey]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

NCEP have rubbished the GFS and GEFS early on  . They also don’t like any of the op runs in the later timeframe because of poor continuity . This is good because they’re underwhelming .

hey nick.

didn't you used to post a report on what the Americans used to think about the models, do you still look at them??

fromey

[The Eagle]

3 hours ago, PLANET THANET said:

sometimes looking at the models drive you to drink l.o.l

 

Edited December 26, 2018 by The Eagle

[Derecho]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@Quicksilver1989

Isn't the SST's just determined by the Atlantic Multi-decadal  Oscillation and will by definition have colder and warmer phases.

There is multi-decadal variability in Atlantic SSTs as you say, however the AMO is a large scale average which will mask the more localised variations in anomalies that apply to the charts I posted.

Interesting -PDO phases are more strongly linked to the SST patterns during 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13 whilst from late 2013-2017 the PDO was often strongly positive, so there are other factors at play. We rarely ever see really warm SSTs to our west during the winter months nowadays. I believe if we did we wouldn't have to rely on a big SSW event to encourage blocking to set up to our W/NW. I'm not sure a switch in the AMO phase would give us what we are all chasing. I might be wrong though, it's just my interpretation of winters over the last decade or so.

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, fromey said:

hey nick.

didn't you used to post a report on what the Americans used to think about the models, do you still look at them??

fromey

Yes I still do but so far this winter we haven’t had this sort of key disagreement at quite an early timeframe so I haven’t been reporting them .

We need to start praying both the ECM and GFS are wrong with the trough set up to the west. 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

There is multi-decadal variability in Atlantic SSTs as you say, however the AMO is a large scale average which will mask the more localised variations in anomalies that apply to the charts I posted.

Interesting -PDO phases are more strongly linked to the SST patterns during 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13 whilst from late 2013-2017 the PDO was often strongly positive, so there are other factors at play. We rarely ever see really warm SSTs to our west during the winter months nowadays. I believe if we did we wouldn't have to rely on a big SSW event to encourage blocking to set up to our W/NW. I'm not sure a switch in the AMO phase would give us what we are all chasing. I might be wrong though, it's just my interpretation of winters over the last decade or so.

I definitely think that the +PDO was what did for us in the last 5 or 6 years, it sends the Jet on a Southerly track, surely causeing those lows to just keep exploding off the Eastern seaboard, there were not many brutal cold incidents with a +PDO for the last 30 years, interestingly enough, the daddy of them all though was (Jan 1987)

Edited December 26, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Optimus Prime]

12 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

We rarely ever see really warm SSTs to our west during the winter months nowadays. I believe if we did we wouldn't have to rely on a big SSW event to encourage blocking to set up to our W/NW. 

went back and read your previous post. seems to make sense. 

Edited December 26, 2018 by Optimus Prime

[feb1991blizzard]

The Icon looks a stonker but so have a lot of runs lately at 100-150 only for an explosive low on Southern Greenland to just flatten everything.

Edited December 26, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[The Eagle]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The Icon looks a stonker but so have a lot of runs lately at 100-150 only for an explosive low on Southern Greenland to just flatten everything.

Yes, looks good at 120 hrs. Very positive. 

 

[SLEETY]

Until the met office change their update,should still think everything is fine and the ssw is still going on,just ignore the operationals,well until they show brutal cold heading our way  

[Derecho]

16 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Hi, in what way may the cooler-than-average atlantic play in our weather during winter? I ask because presumably the north atlantic wouldn't have been much warmer in the past - at a time when it never seemed to play much of a role in mitigating cold weather for the U.K and Europe. 

I think the only real argument for the lack of winter weather over the past 30-years (but seemingly getting even less wintry recently) is that unequivocally, it's more warmer now than it was. Pressure patterns seemed to have changed very dramatically, but when they fall into place they still seem to deliver what we want. 

You raise a few interesting points. I think the Atlantic has indeed been cooler in the past but different regions show different trends. The east Atlantic and equatorial Atlantic have indeed warmed but to a lesser extent that little region in the Central/West North Atlantic hasn't. Look at other classic winters for example:

 1954/55

 1955/56

 1962/63

 1968/69

 1978/79

 1995/96

I think the SSTs to our west have an effect and encourage more in the way of low SLP to our NW when anomalies are negative. Some of the warmest years in this region come very early in the SST record. I think 1888 is the warmest year on record in that region!

I think if that region doesn't carry on warming when the rest of the Atlantic does, that dreaded cold blob will become more apparent. More westerlies will probably ensue though some may be a tad cooler. We need Scandi highs to become more common again... or one of the 3 factors in my other post to deliver.

However less easterlies as a result would also occur. I hope not because they can still deliver, switch off the mild air supply from the Atlantic and the near continent will soon become cold. It's just a shame it seems such weather patterns are becoming more elusive. 

Edited December 26, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[MR EXTREMES]

1 hour ago, bazookabob said:

I've been away a couple of days... I take it January 7th is no longer when we should be expecting the big freeze? (I saw that date mentioned by a few on here on Christmas eve). It does all seem to be getting delayed bit by bit lol! 

I said the 7th.

shortly after saying this the charts just got worse and worse.

still we got the Prozac run in just over an hour perhaps some even worse charts to cry over lol.

But in honesty some of the top posters in here were saying it's not guaranteed.

And now we can see why.

It does go to show how exceptional the winter of 2009 and 2010 was.

That blocking over Greenland was a beast 1050 mb that just deflected everything under.

Also the jet stream been a bit of a pain in the butt and the jet is not really interested in taking a holiday into north Africa like 09/10.

Still given my true sorrow than my 7th January turning point is way of the mark still plenty of winter yet.

If we get nothing this winter,

then I will have to surrender to that the weather and atmospheric sciences just completely out wits any super computer and human input.

Edited December 26, 2018 by MR EXTREMES

[festivalking]

2 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Well I must have missed all the talk of a major SSW then

If only they knew or believed what the proffs know eh?  Pour a gin all and try again tomorrow. 

Incidentally this December not one air or ground frost here. The hunt for cold? I'd settle for the hunt for average.

 

[Duane S.]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The Icon looks a stonker but so have a lot of runs lately at 100-150 only for an explosive low on Southern Greenland to just flatten everything.

Frustrating isn’t it. On the face of it a very good chart for a Day 6er. But none are seeing a way for that pressure build to pay dividends for us. Interesting how it is now handling that energy to our NE differently at that stage as well.

There is something niggling me (might just be blind faith ) that we shouldn’t completely discount something coming from this just yet...

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Frustrating isn’t it. On the face of it a very good chart for a Day 6er. But none are seeing a way for that pressure build to pay dividends for us. Interesting how it is now handling that energy to our NE differently at that stage as well.

There is something niggling me (might just be blind faith ) that we shouldn’t completely discount something coming from this just yet...

Its just too early a timeframe that it goes down the pan, you would need at the very minimum 10 GEFS members pulling it off at the moment to have any chance, its floating between 0 and 1 at the moment