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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Feb my phone isn't great,what is that chart showing?tia

A stonking big stratospheric ridge at 10mb covering the North pole right the way from the Pacific to the British isles.

In other words a stratospheric cross polar flow.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
13 minutes ago, swfc said:

Hopefully the gFS para is a blinder!!!

The strat is looking better early doors even to my untrained eye early the FV3.:oldsmile:

gfsnh-10-120.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
46 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

ICON is the next best and most consistent model after the ECM in my view.

 

Absolutely superb for the Spring easterlies and summer heatwave.

 

 

 

It’s useless. Never understand why people bother with it.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Counting the time away waiting  for my flight on Friday from LHR-YVR. Must say the weather over Christmas has been depressing. Just watched the weather presentation on BBC by the very likeable Thomas Schafernaker ,he looked  totally fed up with the present bore fest. He could see no change until the New Year and suggested the mild weather will move into much of Central and Eastern Europe this week. Poor man , as I think he loves to present cold weather ! My daughter had a max of -10c in Sweden on Christmas Eve and now +3C with rain. High Pressure, cloud laden skies and 9c is just the worst scenario in deepest mid-winter . Anyway, think its pub time to lighten my mood. Hopefully, the crap weather will get kicked away by a powerful Arctic blast for you lot soon after New Year. By that time I will be too far away hunting the same cold in Pacific Canada !

 C

No New Year cheer from this GFS chart of horror for UK. Lets hope UKMO (168t extended ) and ECM lifts the mood in the hunt of cold for you guys ?

C

850temp_20181226_12_240.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Seriously nothing now I'd like to see more than to see that Atlantic absolutely do one...GFS now spewing out Xmas dinner left overs of chewed sprouts and regurgitated turkey.  The model obviously doesn't believe in a season for all men!

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - cold, summer - not hot
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands

The only comfort I'm getting from these dismal charts is the apparent lack of extreme storminess.  Other than that it's the worst kind of output for this time of year.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
5 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Unfortunately we're in the  Hunt for Strat split time zone ...not knocking that, as it seems that's our only route to cold.....However were now looking at 11th Jan....I suspect this will run until April when we're breaking out our bbqs, mankinis, flowers.....I want snow!!

Your on the booze FSS, you were all positive and excited about half an hour ago when you posted, what's made you change your mind all of a sudden, time for a quiz maybe? Lets see what ECM has to offer.:drunk-emoji:

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
4 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Course I'm on the booze, I'm up for cold I just don't want to wait anymore hehe....Not changing my mind I want a Rtr (Rapid trop response!):cold:

:oldsmile: 2nd warming there

gfsnh-10-186.png

gfsnh-10-240.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
19 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Course I'm on the booze, I'm up for cold I just don't want to wait anymore hehe....Not changing my mind I want a Rtr (Rapid trop response!):cold:

I can tell you now, you'll wait until at least the 10th Jan, possibly the 15th.

You'll get an STR - standard trop response.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Is this often what’s left of the Strat after a SSW? I’m hanging my hat on the METO outlook, every release I’m expected a downgrade as that’s just our luck most of the time - so far so good, but it hasn’t changed so maybe they’re just sitting on the fence. Either way, charts are still poor in FI (on the ground) but that is still totally expected should it be towards mid month the chance of a freeze arrives!!

F0F4F81C-9590-4CC3-80E0-25315BE188C8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
35 minutes ago, snowray said:

:oldsmile: 2nd warming there

gfsnh-10-186.png

gfsnh-10-240.png

Shot to pieces!

gfsnh-10-348.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I can tell you now, you'll wait until at least the 10th Jan, possibly the 15th.

You'll get an STR - standard trop response.

I'd be happy with that, coinciding with the coldest time in winter, historically speaking, which is late January to the 1st week of Feb.:cold: 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, snowray said:

I'd be happy with that, coinciding with the coldest time in winter, historically speaking, which is late January to the 1st week of Feb.:cold: 

The GEFS now go out to the 10th Jan, apart from a few stragglers, there isn't any real clustering consensus on any proper blocking yet, you get the feeling that something would be signposted by now, i think it will all kick off with some cold zonality, then a Northerly and an Easterly, thats assuming it goes to plan and we actually get a cold spell at all of course.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Just now, northwestsnow said:

GFS seems to have gone into SSW overdrive and is intent on a second warming..

If we don't get lucky at some point down the line i will be suprised, and gutted..

I'm pretty confident now NWS that we will get lucky, I know that theres been talk of a problem with downwelling, and the models are not looking all that fab, but it can take a fair bit of time to get a response. Last Feb/March were pretty quick, lucky for us, but it used to be said on here, if I remember correctly that is, that it can take a upto a month or so to see the full effects of a decent SSW. Suits me, big freeze mid/late Jan and right through into Feb, we would no doubt be sick of it by then anyway.:oldsmile:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Not sure i'm keen on EC 144 ..Too much energy southern Greeny..?

image.png

Not sure its that different from 0z, although im more concerned with attacks on the vortex than any short term half baked fixes, in other words i am prepared to play the long game now.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The GEFS now go out to the 10th Jan, apart from a few stragglers, there isn't any real clustering consensus on any proper blocking yet, you get the feeling that something would be signposted by now, i think it will all kick off with some cold zonality, then a Northerly and an Easterly, thats assuming it goes to plan and we actually get a cold spell at all of course.

Well we certainly deserve a cold spell, I have had model watching fatigue for quite some time already, turning into hard work this is...!

Anyway, the strat just looks too shot to pieces in my humble opinion, I'm no expert but I think that when it changes it will be like the flip of a switch to cold. Oh yh, agreed, cold zonality, Nwly/Northerly followed by something from the E/NE seems likely to me too.

 

Happy boxing day, shame our boxing day horse tip fell earlier at Kempton, hope no one had any money on it.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

crapper

Term of the day

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