Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

I've read pages and pages of hope-casting and analysis about how much better the output is, occasionally how it's now showing the down-welling effects of SSW, and why (although it's still fairly zonal) that's just because of model bias. 

Yet, on a rational basis, there are still very few signs of northern blocking. It's just not there on current output.

 

 

 

  • Like 7
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 7th of January has always been the turning point in my opinion we are still 13 days away and 5 days left of December. The fact we are seeing changes this early can surely only be a good thing with an attempt at a possible qtr being modelled by the gfs. I'm far more optimistic of a better outcome by mid January and much more optimistic that we will start to see some eye candy runs in the next few days. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We look to have a window of opportunity to get some sort of a block in place around 120-144, the models are toying with some WAA west of Greenland building a high ahead and if we are lucky our resident high may link up and build a more meaningful block.

This is the timescale to be watching IMO. It may come to nothing but worth watching.

Looks more of an isolated tropospheric response than anything linked to the potential SSW at this stage IMO.

 

2AC91BBC-7A34-4F4D-957D-E9F0874F0A54.thumb.png.a8beaa330ee2656bd564f419c268742f.png500AD7C4-1DDA-48D5-8A18-137BB67A9028.thumb.png.94849f2735f751bde89ada0f584da8f0.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In our 'hunt for cold' it's a bit disheartening to see that the entire UK currently enjoys the highest surface level temperatures anywhere in the world above the 50th parallel.....

image.thumb.png.62cb593549a9470890a71bcc554c0292.png

...by some margin!

We have the highest hill to climb of any country in the northern hemisphere when it comes to experiencing cold weather in the winter so it's no wonder we all get excited when there's any prospect of snow.  Let's hope we all get what we wish for in the New Year!

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GEFS zonal wind today, reversal on the turn of the year now.  By the end of the run just 3 members back in positive territory, the lowest -21 m/s.

image.thumb.jpg.393110d21c40371f2608fe9df05839cf.jpg

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good morning cold lovers .I do like the look of the 192 hrs chart on the ECM this morning ,not taking it as gospel but this evenings run could be interesting ,perhaps more in our favour ,lets keep our fingers and toes crossed .it does look like things become more mobile as we reach around the latter stages of  the GFS , so perhaps some hope for us snow lovers .i know we are all waiting behind the settee hoping for that magical run  of charts that show cold snow frost etc but we must remain Strong .Todays met office update due out soon ,perhaps we can gleen something from that .AN update from my local squirrels ,they are out enjoying the mild weather ,but going around chattering ,think they are saying Block moving north prepare for winter ,stock pile the food ,but i may be mistaken .take care all ,Stellas all round  and enjoy yesterdays left overs .🍺:yahoo:.ps my dog is getting excited ,perhaps something afoot .

 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

The 7th of January has always been the turning point in my opinion we are still 13 days away and 5 days left of December. The fact we are seeing changes this early can surely only be a good thing with an attempt at a possible qtr being modelled by the gfs. I'm far more optimistic of a better outcome by mid January and much more optimistic that we will start to see some eye candy runs in the next few days. 

Spot on rapodo 

Edited by snowfish1
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While I hope this time it is right, I can't help thinking the phrase "the next few days will bring us eye candy runs" is a weather forum's equivalent of "the cheque's in the post"!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bringing back memories of 2012/2013. Starting to see the signs of a change. We're about a week ahead 2012/2013 so I agree that 7th Jan onwards will get interesting. I know no two years are the same but I'm crossing my fingers!

Edited by CanadaAl
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, snowfish1 said:

It's early days. People taking output as gospel again. Effects of the much spoken about ssw are still being factored in 

Thank you. I'm thinking 28/29 onward we will get a slightly better idea. It's going to be tough though since the Jet might be getting ramped up by the deep cold in the US and Canada

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Clusters are back 😀

extended run wasn’t so great so no surprise to see the ridge with more traction around 25% 

of course we have no Idea re continuity on these which is an issue 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Clusters are back 😀

extended run wasn’t so great so no surprise to see the ridge with more traction around 25% 

of course we have no Idea re continuity on these which is an issue 

Long term I have to say I'm concerned at the ECM watering down the SSW and splt. Would rather this upgrading over the GFS

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the FV3 is picking-up on anything, it's a change to a more mobile westerly regime, of mild, wet mush alternating with colder showery conditions...It's still 5-days' too soon for any FI-signals for an easterly to be apparent, IMO...?

image.thumb.png.0403f013f467223b2aa3f9c0b54fff12.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

If the FV3 is picking-up on anything, it's a change to a more mobile westerly regime, of mild, wet mush alternating with colder showery conditions...It's still 5-days' too soon for any FI-signals for an easterly to be apparent, IMO...?

image.thumb.png.0403f013f467223b2aa3f9c0b54fff12.png

 

It's worth noting that if the MJO is going to be as amplified as GFS suggests then this will delay a pressure rise over Scandinavia even more since phase 6-7 tend to build pressure west of us so looking for northerlies over easterlies is a strong bet.

If we do keep high amplitude into phase 8 and 1 though with a weak vortex then that is the time we'll party.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Minnizi said:

The thread is hunt for cold, which is what ppl are doing with op's if they didnt there wouldnt be no thread

I accept that, but unrealistic interpretation of the model output does not make cold happen, and serves only to mis-lead and disappoint. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm seeing pretty-much the same as I saw yesterday: despite reading pages and pages of glorious 'upgrades', we are still no nearer a solution...And that's only the models!😭😁

image.thumb.png.54761ca1a465346a65b6f61b47757900.png

12 hour snow window for me, winds look right direction for at least some of the time, deepest FI

hgt500-1000.pnghgt500-1000.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here you go, peeps: something for snow-lovers to enjoy!

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

It's worth noting that if the MJO is going to be as amplified as GFS suggests then this will delay a pressure rise over Scandinavia even more since phase 6-7 tend to build pressure west of us so looking for northerlies over easterlies is a strong bet.

If we do keep high amplitude into phase 8 and 1 though with a weak vortex then that is the time we'll party.

Which is what Stewart (GP) has mooted for a while i.e MJO amplified coupled with a SSW.

Really don't understand how some look for any possible reason that  it may not come together and must go through some big mood swings😁

It is the same every time we approach some super synoptics. There was a period pre 2009 when I could understand the downbeat posts but what could "never happen again" has regularly happened since then. 

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Which is what Stewart (GP) has mooted for a while i.e MJO amplified coupled with a SSW.

Really don't understand how some look for any possible reason that  it may not come together and must go through some big mood swings😁

It is the same every time we approach some super synoptics. There was a period pre 2009 when I could understand the downbeat posts but what could "never happen again" has regularly happened since then. 

Good post W79. Until GP tells us any different I'm more than happy await the developments that he has suggested. He has proved very reliable strat wise over the years.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Clusters are back 😀

extended run wasn’t so great so no surprise to see the ridge with more traction around 25% 

of course we have no Idea re continuity on these which is an issue 

Yes good news to have them back at last, but not screaming cold except perhaps cluster 3

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018122600_300.

Cluster 1 also has just the suggestion of getting the trough to our east (as I speculated on yesterday), but cluster 2 is Bartlett like. No reason to get very excited yet on NWP alone. 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

anyone found any cold yet:drunk-emoji:

More chance to catch a cold than find it! 😀😀

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...