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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

That would be my preferred option... I turn 50 on the 5th January so if the Clerk of the Weather could arrange a white birthday, that would be lovely!

It is really exciting seeing the possibilities - I love the will-it-won't-it drama!

Its just a theory i've got when looking at the GEFS mean, sometimes you can tell by the pattern over SW Greenland that a Northerly will be modelled on subsequent runs, not certain of course and not certain it would verify but i just have a feeling.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

6Z better now, importing some colder continental air on Boxing day..

lol Feb you posted exactly the same at exactly the same time!

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
6 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes agree.Id suspect anything beyond the 5- 7 day mark is out in fi imo

I agree, swfc...the sudden switch from a grotty northwesterly to a raw and unpleasant southeasterly hasn't gone unnoticed!:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

We really need to see the back of the Atlantic low to the W/SW and the Iberian heights as soon as possible!

yes i agree mate, guess patience is the buzzword for now.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Just now, northwestsnow said:

6Z ends with a UK high- but the profile at northern latitudes does not make pretty reading..

Id bet diamonds the 6z para is nothing like that NW

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

 gfsnh-10-384.png?6

To have three different SPV cells though is highly unusual. Not a split in the traditional sense but illustrates massive disruption in the medium term 

Indeed, it's probably why (in the trop) we end up with this anomaly as the American SPV lobe gravitates further West: (note heights edging into a vacant greenland). Remember, we're only looking for medium-long term trends at this point, anything that comes along beforehand would be a bonus beyond what the professionals seem to be expecting. 

gfsnh-12-384.png?6 

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6Z better now, importing some colder continental air on Boxing day..

lol Feb you posted exactly the same at exactly the same time!

Going back through the Annuls of time, a change to polar type air come Boxing Day is one heck of a repeating trend. So, even having not viewed the outputs people speak of, I'm relying on you good people to update me as I dip in and out of here of late, I reckon a Boxing Day change of pattern has a 75/25 per cent chance of verifying. A mildish Christmas Day on my patch I suspect under ridge conditions and then a front travelling southwards come the 26th would be my bet now. The HP cell I feel will be sitting to the west of the UK at this juncture and hopefully, the flow will be from the North or Northeast

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Atlantic knocking on the door again by the 27th tho!!

Mate gfs has not got a foggiest about whats gona happen christmas onwards!!the differences from yesterdays runs are startling!!at least we could be cold and frosty!!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Mate gfs has not got a foggiest about whats gona happen christmas onwards!!the differences from yesterdays runs are startling!!at least we could be cold and frosty!!

At least it should be seasonal

850s not important in late Dec under high pressure..

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I think some are expecting too much too soon! Patience

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

If the T+384 chart is anything to go by, the chance of deep cold, from the north has been reduced somewhat, in favour of it coming from the east...Who knows!

Netweather GFS Image

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

I will probably get scolded for this but that is one hell of a warming forecast !! I wonder if anyone has the chart for back in February for comparison

B54B73FD-5248-420F-93D2-D2E816C38949.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

If the T+384 chart is anything to go by, the chance of deep cold, from the north has been reduced somewhat, in favour of it coming from the east...Who knows!

Netweather GFS Image

The meto yesterday hinted colder weather coming from east this where I’m putting my money.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A very very respectable split SSW showing on the 6z, big reversal

Yes, good to see a proper split showing as previous runs were underwhelming. It is the 6z gfs though which is not the most reliable. We need to see consistency from now on.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Trop getting in on the act by the end?

 

Interesting to see on the GEFS if there are any flatliners or signs of them at -10c at the end of the run.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

The meto yesterday hinted colder weather coming from east this where I’m putting my money.

And given that, here are two charts, selected at random, which (hopefully) tell a similar story?:cold:

Netweather GFS Image GFS Archive Image

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks to me like the pendulum has swung back towards a more positive outcome strat-wise on the last couple of GFS ops..

I'd say mainly the 6z. The previous run was not as favourable with a chunk of the vortex thrown over us at 30hpa.

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