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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
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Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

    Frosty start on Christmas day?  Para 12z 

    gfsnh-0-186-1.png

    High pressure ridging North West, centred West of the UK seems the form horse imo. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

    Frosty start on Christmas day?  Para 12z 

    gfsnh-0-186-1.png

    The high is more amplified again. The trend is our friend...

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

    The high is more amplified again. The trend is our friend...

    And I will be concentrating on developments to our ENE and NNW.

    Netweather GFS Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    14 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    High pressure ridging North West, centred West of the UK seems the form horse imo. 

    @Seasonality that is good for Central Europe looks like northerly by 26.12 ?

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Just out of curiosity if a SSW occurs and a split vortex will any forcing come from the Pacific ? I'm old school dust in the wind type and Siberian swans flying west!! trying to get to grips with the strat ete.tia

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    Nice to see the GFSP nudging back towards yesterday`s 06Z

     

    gfsnh-1-204.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    Evening, here are some more swingometers updated until the 12z's

    image.thumb.png.b42804b54641f4c7a299e8484a5bf4b3.png

    The forecast for christmas day looks similar to what it has done for recent days... mild but not especially so, a small chance of something colder and a fair bit of uncertainty remaining

    image.thumb.png.8e0c0e4ed181ffd1f1c9dbfdf3eaab4f.png

    For New Years Day the ensembles show very low heights to our NW in quite a few of them. Either a strong westerly or anticyclonic appears most likely at this early point.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
    2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Christmas day still looking like we could see something colder best chance of snow will probably be in Scotland

    gefsens850London0.thumb.png.95fc6e79925ededeea05e3612c4fed01.pnggefsens850Inverness0.thumb.png.940b9b59582be0772bb141729389df5f.png

    Just going by those a hint of an easterly. If it was northerly you would expect Inverness to be colder.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    23 minutes ago, ZK099 said:

    Just thought I'd share this. Quite pertinent 

    Screenshot_20181217-180409_Twitter.jpg

    62-63 and 78-79 indeed were epic but those other winters were very mediocre, well at least we have a lottery ticket 

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
    2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

    62-63 and 78-79 indeed were epic but those other winters were very mediocre, well at least we have a lottery ticket 

    That is america though?

    Edit: that tweet

    Edited by Stuie W
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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    3 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

    That is america though?

    Edit: that tweet

    Yes

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
    6 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

    62-63 and 78-79 indeed were epic but those other winters were very mediocre, well at least we have a lottery ticket 

    1977/78 was also a cold and snowy Winter though, although probably overshadowed by the following Winter of 1978/79. 2002/03 however was pretty pants here, although I think some other regions did okayish  during this Winter. Obviously not fantastic though, but at at least 3 of those years went on to produce good Winters for cold and snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

    D503E061-9286-4797-A9BB-63E8540AA29B.thumb.png.8851049a9a03a5a679fcaaec4d0c7d5d.png

    Someone shoot me now ☹️

    ???? zzzzz

    i’d rather wind and rain. 

    Cosy, fire on. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    Not sure i like the look of EC- high sinking 168-192..

    N'ly coming if it went further than 240 though - you'll see signs by then.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    N'ly coming if it went further than 240 though - you'll see signs by then.

    will need some energy to go into the southern are for that to happen.. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    If it wasn’t for the promising background signals and strat forecasts, it would be dead on here. The model output is God awfully boring.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    I can`t fathom out a cold scenario from here...

     

    ECH1-216.png

    ECH0-216.png

    Edited by Stuie W
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    N'ly coming if it went further than 240 though - you'll see signs by then.

    way east surely? 

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